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Saturday, September 30, 2006


THE VALUE BETTING COLUMN EVERY SATURDAY

NEWMARKET, SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 30, 2006




for the best odds go to www.BritOdds.com
BP= the best price at the time of writing

Going - Soft

3.10pm - £200,000 KINGDOM OF BAHRAIN SUN CHARIOT STAKES (Group One)


1) 2123 ALEXANDER GOLDRUN Jim Bolger IRE 5-9-02 Kevin Manning
Top-class Irish mare who has been a credit to her connections. Excellent effort when touched off by Ouija Board in a thrilling finish to the 10-furlong Nassau Stakes at Goodwood but below par last time when third to Dylan Thomas in the Irish Champion Stakes. She has run with great credit over a mile but all her five Group One wins have come at 10 furlongs which means she is probably vulnerable at this shorter trip. Last ran over a mile when second at the July Course in July, 2005 when second to Soviet Song, beaten two and a half lengths. Seems to act on all sorts of ground. BP= 2/1

2) -723 MUSICANNA James Fanshawe 5-9-02t Richard Hughes
She made great progress last season under her astute trainer, graduating from handicaps to run a fine third in this race 12 months ago. It was a decent effort when third to shock victor Rajeem in the Falmouth Stakes in July and she handles ease in the ground. She has not run for two and a half months. BP= 17/2

3) 4432 PEERESS Sir Michael Stoute NR vet’s certificate

4) 1625 SOVIET SONG James Fanshawe 6-9-02 Oscar Urbina
Fantastic servant for the James Fanshawe stable over the years, winning five times in Group One company over a mile. Looked as good as ever when storing home in the Windsor Forest Stakes at Royal Ascot in June but has not shown that level of form subsequently, only fifth of six last time out behind Caradak in the Celebration Mile at Goodwood, and Jamie Spencer has jumped ship to partner Red Evie. She has won on soft but most victories have come on fast ground. BP= 9/2

5) -023 FLASHY WINGS NR ground

6) 1111 RED EVIE Michael Bell 3-8-12 Jamie Spencer
Has been a revelation this season following one unplaced run as a juvenile, racking up an incredible seven-timer with a game short-head victory over Peeress in the Group One Matron Stakes at Leopardstown on September 9. She is a very progressive filly who possibly has more improvement to come and looks a live threat to all here. BP= 7/4

7) 1496 SPECIOSA Pam Sly NR vet’s certificate

8) 1152 SPINNING QUEEN 3-8-12 Michael Hills
A consistent sort this season who landed a Group Three at Leopardstown in July over seven furlongs. A grand effort last time at Newbury when chasing home Sleeping Indian but was beaten four lengths when hampered behind Red Evie at Goodwood the time before. Barry Hills has his horses in great form and this one could surprise at a good price in what is likely to be tactical race. BP= 14/1

9) 1179 VAGUE Jeremy Noseda NR Ground

SUMMARY
Spinning Queen looks the value here in what could be a confusing race with only five runners.


GOOD LUCK



CODEBREAKER EVERY WEEK

formerly in the Racing Post Weekender

3.45pm, NEWMARKET, SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 30, 2006

£150,000 totesport CAMBRIDGESHIRE (HERITAGE HANDICAP), 1m 1f



Main Trends

Look for winners earlier this season

Horses should ideally have finished in the first four last time out

Disregard horses who have already had nine or more outings

Three and four-year-olds have the best record

Better-fancied horses (16/1 and under) have a good record

High draw generally favoured


The historic totesport Cambridgeshire, the first leg of the Autumn double at Newmarket, is one of the most fiercely contested handicaps of the entire season.


Taking place over nine furlongs at the NatWest Rowley Mile course on Saturday, September 30, this year’s renewal has 35 runners.


Despite the size of the field, a clear set of trends has emerged which enables Codebreaker to hopefully identify the likely winner of this great betting heat.


The 2001 victor I Cried For You, along with Chivalry, who won on his seasonal debut in 2003, were anomalies in that they had not managed to win earlier in the year, whereas every other winner since 1985 had already scored that season.


So it seems prudent to eliminate those horses who have failed to win this year, meaning an early exit for Stagelight, Rocamadour, Take A Bow, Ace Of Hearts, My Paris, Ofaraby, Another Bottle, Royal Island, Wise Dennis, Bustan, Kamanda Laugh, Red Spell and Seulement.

Good recent form also appears to be an important factor, with only Balthus in 1987 and Spanish Don last year not having finished in the first four on their last start prior to Newmarket in the last 21 years, while Chivalry won on his seasonal debut. None of Hinterland, Royal Alchemist, Blue Spinnaker, Salinja, Capable Guest, Pearly King, Tanzanite and Day To Remember managed to finish in the top four last time out and are discounted.


All 21 winners since 1985 had not run on more than nine occasions earlier in the season, however none of the remaining runners have exceeded this total, so Codebreaker must look elsewhere.


16 of the last 21 Cambridgeshire victors were either three or four-year-olds, so it seems sensible to side with horses of these two age groups. The door must be shown to six-year-old Blythe Knight as a result.

Although class horses do sometimes win this event, such as Cap Juluca, who shouldered 9st 10lb to victory in 1995, and Blue Monday, who carried 9st 3lb when successful 12 months ago, it generally goes to a runner with a more modest burden, with only eight horses since 1985 having carried more than 9st to victory.

The likes of Spectait (9st 8lb), Rohaani (9st 4lb), Smart Enough (9st 3lb), Dunelight (9st 3lb), Dark Islander (9st 2lb), Bolodenka (9st 1lb) and Pinpoint (9st 1lb) are all eliminated due to their allotted weights.

Despite its competitive nature, the totesport Cambridgeshire is usually won by a fancied horse, with only four horses since 1985 having been returned at odds greater than 16/1. That enables us to exclude both Illustrious Blue and Blue Bajan, who are generally a 25/1 chance with bookmakers for the race.


If we concentrate on the draw, it can be seen that those drawn high have a distinct advantage in recent times, with only five winners since 1985 having had a single figure draw. The well-fancied Charlie Cool has a hard task from stall four and is therefore overlooked.


Codebreaker now has a straight choice between Fairmile and Formal Decree, drawn in stalls 32 and 17 respectively. Both come into the race in good recent form and are among the current favourites.


Preference is given to FORMAL DECREE.

Three winners have emerged from the 17 stall in the last 10 years, while the selection’s jockey, Dean McKeown, has the best record of any current jockey in the race, having scored three victories.

For old articles (from 1st March 2000) go to the Newslink Archive

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