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Saturday, September 3, 2005


THE VALUE BETTING COLUMN EVERY SATURDAY




NEWMARKET, SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 3, 2005




4.05pm Group Three £50,000 32Red.com September Stakes 1m 4f



GOING: Good to firm

for the best odds go to www.BritOdds.com
BP= the best price at the time of writing

1) (1) 3512 Bandari Mark Johnston 6-9-08 Willie Supple
Consistency has never been his strong point despite his form figures but he would have a clear chance here on the basis of his penultimate run when he landed the Group Two Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot at York. A course and distance winner who will like the ground, he has run better this season and cannot be discounted. He looks the value despite Richard Hills preferring Imperial Stride. BP= 6/1

2) (4) 0111 Imperial Stride Sir Michael Stoute 4-9-08 Richard Hills
Caused a 25/1 in the Duke of Edinburgh Handicap at Royal Ascot at York but showed that was clearly no flash in the pan as he was subsequently an authoritative winner of a Listed contest at Newmarket and the Group Two Scottish Classic at Ayr, beating Powerscourt Clearly very progressive and is the one to beat but there is little value here. BP= 10/11

3) (6) 7-14 Mamool Saeed bin Suroor 6-9-03t Kerrin McEvoy
Grand servant for connections over the years and looked as good as ever when landing Listed race at Goodwood on seasonal reappearance. Endured a poor run when fourth last time in the 13-furlong Geoffrey Freer at Newmarket and is an interesting contender here, as he gets in without a penalty. He would prefer slightly easier ground though and may need further. BP= 9/4

4) (2) 34-3 Self Defense Emma Lavelle 8-9-03 Ian Mongan
Very decent hurdler who put up a credible effort on first Flat start this season at Newbury last time, but may this trip a minimum and has shown signs of temperament too. BP= 20/1

5) (3) 54-4 The Whistling Teal Geoff Wragg 9-9-03 Eddie Ahern
Veteran performer who put up a fair effort when fourth on his seasonal reappearance behind Mamool at Goodwood. However, he is nine now and has never won above Group Three level, so hard to see him making the necessary improvement. BP= 33/1

6) (5)-144 Polar Jem George Margarson 5-9-00 Adrian McCarthy
Course and distance winner in Listed contest in July. Well held on two starts since and it is hard to see her making an impression against the leading contenders. BP= 40/1

SUMMARY
BANDARI is a proven performer, likes small fields, Newmarket and fast ground so 6/1 is excellent value.



CODEBREAKER

formerly in the Racing Post Weekender

HAYDOCK PARK, SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 3, 2005

2.15pm £225,000 Group One William Hill Sprint Cup 6f



Main Trends

all of the last 18 winners were placed in the first four on their last start

17 of the last 18 winners were aged between three and five

15 of the last 18 winners had raced between three and six times earlier in the season

This Saturday (September 3) sees top-class racing in the United Kingdom courtesy of the William Hill Sprint Cup at Haydock Park, which last year was won by Tante Rose, who was retired to stud after her success.


Good recent form seems vital here as all of the last 18 winners were placed in the first four on their previous start.


This year’s running has attracted a maximum field of 17 of the fastest horses in Britain and France and if the trends are correct, Fayr Jag, Orientor, Somnus, Steenberg, The Kiddykid, Beckermet and Galeota are unlikely winners as none of them managed to reach the first four last time out.


Since 1987, 17 of the 18 winners were aged between three and five - the one exception was six-year-old Nuclear Debate in 2001.


This strong trend immediately rules out six-year-old Ashdown Express, together with the old man of the field Patavellian, who is aged seven.


The successes of Pipalong and Iktamal were unusual in that they had already raced seven and nine times respectively, while last year Tante Rose had only seen the racecourse twice. Every other winner in the last 18 runnings had been seen on a racecourse between three and six occasions.


On that basis, we can rule out Indian Maiden who has had 15 starts already this season.

The draw is crucial in any race but especially in a competitive sprint like this one. No winner has been drawn less than five since 1995 which means that Traytonic, Goodricke and Proclamation disappear from the reckoning.


A consideration of past starting prices reveals that only four horses in the last 18 runnings have been returned at more than 15/2 - Tante Rose (10/1) in 2004, Somnus (12/1) in 2003, Invincible Spirit (25/1) in 2002 and Iktamal (10/1) in 1996.


This does not bode well for Etlaala, La Cucaracha and Lucky Spin, who are all priced over 15/2 with William Hill.


That leaves GIFT HORSE as this week’s Codebreaker selection.

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