LADBROKES ST LEGER FESTIVAL 2005
RACENEWS RACECOURSE SERVICE
DONCASTER, FINAL DAY, SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 10
FOURTH RACE WINNING QUOTES
LADBROKES ST LEGER (GROUP 1)
SCORPION GIVES DETTORI TENTH CLASSIC
Frankie Dettori bagged his 10th British classic after landing the Ladbrokes St Leger with a pillar-to-post success aboard the Aidan O’Brien-trained Scorpion.
“It’s my tenth British classic so this day is quite a milestone in my career. It’s a special day for me,” said Dettori. “I’ve got to say thank you to my boss and thanks to Coolmore for letting me have the ride.
“I have mixed emotions because when I’ve won this race before it has been for Sheikh Mohammed and Godolphin so it feels a bit peculiar to win it for the main opposition. But hopefully I’ll be back next year winning it for Godolphin.
“It was hard to judge the pace on this ground - it’s very deep out there - and I think he would be better on good ground, he has a great stride. I could have done with a bit of company.
“I felt that if something had come at him he would have pulled out a bit more. Like a true champion, he dug deep and won for me today - he was a worthy favourite. In the final furlong he jinked slightly when I grabbed him to say ‘come and win’ and he just lost his foot for a moment. He has done well to keep up the gallop.
”I felt a horse there inside the final \furlong but I knew my horse would keep the gallop up. It my mind it was always the plan to make all - Aidan left it entirely up to me.”
Dettori decided to take this mount instead of Vodafone Derby winner Motivator in the Irish Champion Stakes and explained: “On Tuesday it looked unlikely that Motivator was going to run and I wanted to be guaranteed a good ride for today so my agent rang up about Scorpion and they wanted a definite decision.”
FRANKIE DETTORI’S BRITISH CLASSIC WINS
Ladbrokes St Leger (1995 Classic Cliche, 1996 Shantou, 2005 Scorpion)
Vodafone Oaks (1994 Balanchine, 1995 Moonshell, 2002 Kazzia)
2000 Guineas (1996 Mark of Esteem, 1999 Island Sands)
1000 Guineas (1998 Cape Verdi, 2002 Kazzia)
PLACED QUOTES RACE FOUR
LADBROKES ST LEGER STAKES
Jeannie Brown, assistant to The Geezer’s trainer David Elsworth, said “what a race he has run and at least we know that he gets the trip ! That had been a big worry before the race.
“Richard (Quinn) said that he was a bit keen in the early stages when there was no great pace, and he could not switch him off to start with, and then just look at the ground he made up in the closing stages. Every stride he took he was cutting back the winner’s lead but the post came just too soon. He kept getting there and getting there but couldn’t quite manage it.
“He has run a cracking race and just shows what a tough horse he is. I think that is his ninth race of the season and they have almost all been in top company.
“I think that will probably be his last race of the season -- unless his brilliant trainer decides otherwise.
“I know he was beaten but he did nothing wrong and it was a grand performance. He will stay in training next year.”
The Geezer’s owner Jeff Smith said “what a race. I know we were beaten but at least we have beaten the horse of Stoute’s (Hard Top). I was sure he should never have beaten us at York.
“What a prospect he is for next year over any distance from ten furlongs to two miles, and you really can’t complain when you are second in a classic.”
MORE LADBROKES ST LEGER QUOTES
HARD TOP COULD NOT ACT ON THE GROUND
Hard Top, the second favourite for the Ladbrokes St Leger who finished fifth, did not handle the heavy ground according to Ryan Moore.
The jockey said: “Hard Top did not like the ground - it was too soft.
“He was not comfortable early on and over the hill he was struggling- he changed his legs a lot.
“He had a chance in the straight but then he could not find anything else on the ground and was beaten.”
Hard Top was the 23rd Ladbrokes St Leger runner for his trainer Sir Michael Stoute who has yet to saddle the winner of the final Classic.
HARD TOP HATED GROUND
Peter Reynolds, manager of owners Ballymacoll Stud, reported that the rain-softened ground did not suit Hard Top in the Ladbrokes St Leger.
“He just hated the soft ground,” said Reynolds. “We thought beforehand that he would go on it but we were wrong and there will be another day with him.”
DUNLOP HAPPY
John Dunlop was happy with his two runners in the Ladbrokes St Leger, with the Richard Hills-ridden Tawqeet finishing third and the Richard Hughes-partnered Kong coming home fourth.
The Sussex-based trainer said: “I was happy with both of mine. Frankie (Dettori) rode a nice race on the best horse in the race, Scorpion.
“It was a good progression to be third for Tawqeet after winning a York handicap, while Kong ran a better race than he did at York.”
CROWD
Today’s crowd figure on Ladbrokes St Leger Day was 23,500, compared to 26,000 in 2004. Attendances on the first three days of the St Leger Festival were up on last year.
Steven Clarke, Doncaster’s General Manager, said: “We’re delighted with the attendance even though it is slightly down on last year and we saw a fantastic race for the Ladbrokes St Leger.
“Advance ticket sales were brilliant and it was due to the weather that day sales were down in the Family and Grandstand Enclosures today.”
LADBROKES ST LEGER WINNER -SCORPION (IRE)
3 b c Montjeu (Ire) - Ardmelody (Law Society (USA))
Owner: Sue Magnier Breeder: Grangemore Stud
Form: 120211 Trainer: Aidan O’Brien IRE Jockey: Frankie Dettori
Scorpion
Ante-post favourite Scorpion did not race as a two-year-old but made an immediate impact in his classic season, justifying odds-on favouritism in a 10-furlong Leopardstown maiden in May by half a length from Magnolia Lane. He was then upped in class over the same trip later that month in the Group Three Airlie Stud Gallinule Stakes at the Curragh, this time finding Im Spartacus a short-head too powerful. On his last three starts, the Montjeu colt has run in top-class events. After being well beaten in the French Derby at Chantilly in early June, in a race in which jockey Kieren Fallon thought the total lack of pace didn’t suit his horse at all, Scorpion then found only Hurricane Run half a length too good in the Irish equivalent at the Curragh at the end of the month. Most recently the three-year-old was victorious in the Juddmonte Grand Prix De Paris at Longchamp on July 14, getting the better of Desideratum by two and a half lengths. After that success, trainer Aidan O’Brien indicated that his charge would be put away for an autumn campaign.That policy nwas vindicated by his all- th- way success in the final Classic, the Lafdbrokes St Leger, today.
Race Record Runs: 6; 1st:3; 2nd: 2; 3rd: 0. Win and place prize money: £659,897
#Sue Magnier
Few in the racing world can boast better connections than Sue Magnier. Her husband John is the most powerful man in the bloodstock world as owner of Coolmore Stud and she is daughter of arguably the greatest 20th century trainer, Vincent O’Brien, who saddled six Derby winners and three St Leger victors. Her brother David O’Brien is another Derby-winning handler while another brother, Charles, is also a successful trainer. In the 1970s John Magnier (born February 10, 1948), the son of a Co Cork dairy farmer and stud owner, teamed up with the late Robert Sangster and trainer Vincent O’Brien with the idea of buying potential stallions as yearlings. This they did with great success, counting Alleged, Be My Guest Caerleon, El Gran Senor, Golden Fleece, Sadler’s Wells and Storm Bird amongst those who were bought or bred. Magnier subsequently bought out his partners at Coolmore - which now has huge offshoots in Australia and America - and owns the nearby magnificent Ballydoyle training stable. He has a myriad of other business interests, mainly with top jump owner J P McManus and the duo recently sold their 28.7% stake in Manchester United FC to American tycoon Malcolm Glazer earlier this year. The pair have also invested in the Barchester chain of nursing homes, a property company that owns Unilever House in London, leisure clubs, including the Chelsea Harbour Club, and the Sandy Lane Hotel in Barbados. Monaco-based former bookmaker Michael Tabor, who like Magnier spends much of the winter in Barbados, became a partner in many of the Coolmore horses in the mid 1990s while last year Derrick Smith, a former Ladbrokes trading director based in Barbados, joined Tabor as a Coolmore investor. Entrepreneur, trained by Sir Michael Stoute, took the 1997 2000 Guineas to provide a first British classic success for the Magnier/Tabor partnership, who also won that season’s Irish equivalent and Irish Derby with Desert King. The duo won the Vodafone Derby in 2001 and 2002 with Galileo and High Chaparral, while Magnier has owned two winners of the Vodafone Oaks in partnership with school friend David Nagle’s wife Diane, Shahtoush (1998) and Imagine (2001). In partnership with Sir Alex Ferguson, Magnier owned Rock Of Gibraltar, who won seven successive Group 1 victories including the 2002 2000 Guineas. Other major wins include the 1998 2000 Guineas with King Of Kings, the 1999 French Derby, Irish Derby, Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe and the 2000 King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Diamond Stakes with Montjeu and a run of five consecutive Group 1 successes in 2000 from Giant’s Causeway. Galileo also won the Irish Derby and King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Diamond Stakes after his 2001 Epsom win, while further British classic glory has come in the St Leger with Milan (2001) and Brian Boru (2003). High Chaparral, who went on to take the 2002 Irish Derby, also landed that year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf and then dead-heated in the same event 12 months later. Last season was quiet by comparison, although there were Group 1 successes for two-year-olds Ad Valorem, Oratorio and Damson, trained by David Wachman, who is married to Magnier’s daughter Katie. This season has seen Magnier win both the UltimatePoker.com 2000 Guineas with Footstepsinthesand and the UltimatePoker.com 1000 Guineas with Virginia Waters while Oratorio lowered the colours of Motivator in the Eclipse. There was a also success for Powerscourt in the Grade One Arlington Million in America and for Scorpion in the Group One Grand Prix de Paris at Longchamp.
Ladbrokes St Leger Wins: 2001 MILAN, 2003 BRIAN BORU, 2005 SCORPION
Aidan O’Brien IRE
Born in Wexford on October 16, 1969, Aidan Patrick O’Brien has been phenomenally successful in his relatively short training career. After a spell with Jim Bolger, he became assistant to his now wife, Anne-Marie, and her father Joe Crowley, before taking over the reins when granted a licence to train himself in 1993. His impact on the Flat was made with backing of the highest calibre in the shape of John Magnier and Coolmore, which offered the precocious O’Brien the use of Ballydoyle Stables, where the young trainer’s namesake and legendary Irish trainer Vincent O’Brien had enjoyed so much success. In 1997, in only his third season at the helm of the Tipperary yard, he confirmed his intentions on the Flat when winning the Irish 1,000 Guineas, the Irish 2,000 Guineas and Irish Derby. The following year, his first British classic runner, King Of Kings, won the 2000 Guineas and the second, Shahtoush, finished runner-up in the following day’s 1000 Guineas and went on to land the Vodafone Oaks a month later. The successes have since flowed in through the likes of Giant’s Causeway (five successive Group 1s in 2000), Second Empire, Saffron Walden, Stravinsky, Fasliyev and an embarrassment of riches in 2001 that yielded 23 Group 1 successes headed by the Vodafone Derby and the Irish Derby, as well as the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Diamond Stakes, with Galileo. Other classic glory came via Imagine (Irish 1,000 Guineas and Vodafone Oaks), Black Minnaloushe (Irish 2,000 Guineas), Rose Gypsy (French 1,000 Guineas) and Milan (St Leger) while Mozart became champion sprinter and O’Brien totally dominated the two-year-old division and Johannesburg provided him with a first Breeders’ Cup success in the 2001 Juvenile at Belmont Park. In 2002 he enjoyed success with the remarkable Rock Of Gibraltar (the only horse to win seven European Group 1 races in a row) and also the dual Derby and Breeders’ Cup winner High Chaparral. His prowess on the Flat is matched by his achievements with his jumpers, which saw him crowned champion National Hunt trainer in Ireland for the first time five seasons after he took out his licence in the 1993/4 campaign. He will forever be associated with the great Istabraq, winner of three Smurfit Champion Hurdles. Rock Of Gibraltar and Hawk Wing gave O’Brien a 1-2 in the 2002 2000 Guineas while High Chaparral and Hawk Wing provided him the first and second in the 2002 Vodafone Derby. The following season he sent out Yesterday to win the Irish 1,000 Guineas and Brian Boru triumphed at Doncaster in the St Leger. O’Brien enjoyed further success with Hawk Wing in the Juddmonte Lockinge Stakes and High Chaparral in the Irish Champion Stakes and Breeders’ Cup Turf. It was an indifferent season for the Ballydoyle team last year, but O’Brien was still successful in the Shadwell Stud Middle Park Stakes with Ad Valorem, the Tattersalls Gold Cup with Powerscourt and the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere with Oratorio. This season has been much more successful with Footstepsinthesand landing the UltimatePoker.com 2000 Guineas and Virginia Waters taking the UltimatePoker.com 1000 Guineas while other major successes came with Oratorio in the Eclipse, Powerscourt in the Arlington Million and Scorpion in the Grand Prix de Paris and the Ladbrokes St Leger. Ladbrokes St Leger Record: 2005-1 SCORPION; 2004-3 Tycoon, 2004-5 Mikado, 2004-7 Go For Gold, 2003-1 BRIAN BORU, 2002-8 Sholokhov, 2001-1 MILAN, 2001-8 Life Match, 2001-9 Saddler’s Creek, 2001-PU Mediterranean, 2000-7 Rostropovich
Frankie Dettori
Born in Milan on December 15, 1970, the son of Gianfranco, a multiple champion jockey in Italy, Frankie Dettori arrived from his homeland to join Luca Cumani’s Newmarket yard as an apprentice in July, 1985. His first success came on Rif at Turin, Italy, on November 16, 1986, and he rode his first British winner on Lizzy Hare at Goodwood on June 9, 1987. He was champion British apprentice in 1989 and passed 100 winners for the first time in 1990 when recording 141 successes. Has since captured the hearts of racegoers with his flamboyant style, phenomenal riding successes, and charisma in and out of the saddle. Champion jockey in 1994 and 1995, Dettori created history when riding all seven winners on the first-day card at the Ascot Festival in September, 1996. His ground-breaking exertions brought recognition beyond racing’s own sphere when he was voted into third place in the 1996 BBC Sports Personality of the Year Awards and was a team captain on ‘A Question Of Sport’. While victory in the Vodafone Derby still eludes Dettori, Cape Verdi’s win in the 1998 1000 Guineas means that he has tasted success in all four other domestic classics at least once, as well as a host of high-profile international successes, including the 1995 and 2002 Arcs on Lammtarra and Marienbard respectively, the Japan Cup on Singspiel in 1996 and Falbrav in 2002, the Dubai World Cup on Dubai Millennium (2000), and Moon Ballad (2003) and the Breeders’ Cup Turf on Daylami in 1999 and in 2001 on Fantastic Light. Dettori, who is retained by the Godolphin team, survived an horrific plane crash at Newmarket in 2000 in which the pilot was killed. He is married to Catherine with five children, and his autobiography came out last year. Ladbrokes St Leger Record: 2005-1 SCORPION; 2003-7 Let Me Try Again, 2002-4 Mamool, 1997-9 Haltarra, 1996-1 SHANTOU, 1995-1 CLASSIC CLICHE, 1993-7 Silverdale, 1992-3 Bonny Scot, 1991-6 Corrupt, 1990-7 Hajade, 1989-6 N C Owen#
The 10/11 favourite won by a length in a time of 3m 19.01s.
FOURTH RACE RESULT
3.20pm THE 2005 LADBROKES ST LEGER STAKES
1) SCORPION (Sue Magnier & Michael Tabor) Aidan O'Brien IRE 3-9-00 Frankie Dettori [2] 10/11 Fav
2) THE GEEZER (Jeff Smith) David Elsworth 3-9-00 Richard Quinn [1] 7/2
3) TAWQEET (Hamdan Al Maktoum) John Dunlop v3-9-00 Richard Hills [3] 11/1
4) KONG (Neil Jones) John Dunlop 3-9-00 Richard Hughes [6]
5) HARD TOP (Ballymacoll Stud) Sir Michael Stoute 3-9-00 Ryan Moore [5]
6) HATTAN (Saeed Manana) Clive Brittain 3-9-00 Alan Munro [7]
6 ran Non-Runner: Avalon (Going)
Time: 3 min 19.01 sec Distances: 1, 5, 3 1/2, 2, 18
Breeder: Grangemore Stud Breeding: b c Montjeu (IRE) - Ardmelody (Law Society)
Tote Win: £1.80 Places: £1.30; £1.80 Exacta: £4.70
Winning trainer:-Name: Aidan O’Brien Date of birth: 16/10/69 Previous occupation: Assistant trainer to Jim Bolger and Anne-Marie Crowley O’Brien Date of first licence: 1993 British Classic wins: (11) Vodafone Derby (2001 Galileo, 2002 High Chaparral), 2000 Guineas (1998 King Of Kings, 2002 Rock Of Gibraltar, 2005 Footstepsinthesand), 1000 Guineas (2005 Virginia Waters),Vodafone Oaks (1998 Shahtoush, 2001 Imagine), St Leger (2001 Milan, 2003 Brian Boru, 2005 Scorpion) Other major wins include:Coronation Cup (2005 Yeats), Coventry Stakes (1997 Harbour Master), Dante Stakes (1998 Saratoga Springs), Darley Dewhurst Stakes (2001 Rock Of Gibraltar), Dee Stakes (2005 Gypsy King), Eclipse Stakes (2000 Giant’s Causeway, 2002 Hawk Wing), French 2,000 Guineas (2002 Landseer), French 1,000 Guineas (2001 Rose Gypsy), Futurity Stakes (2002 Van Nistelrooy), Grand Criterium (2001 Rock Of Gibralter), Grand Criterium (1997 Second Empire), Irish 2,000 Guineas (1997 Desert King, 1999 Saffron Walden, 2001 Black Minnaloushe, 2002 Rock Of Gibraltar), Irish 1,000 Guineas (1997 Classic Park, 2001 Imagine, 2003 Yesterday), Irish Champion Stakes (2000 Giant’s Causeway, 2003 High Chaparral), Irish Derby (1997 Desert King, 2001 Galileo, 2002 High Chaparral), Juddmonte International Stakes (2000 Giant’s Causeway), Juddmonte Lockinge Stakes (2003 Hawk Wing), July Cup (1999 Stravinsky, 2001 Mozart), King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Diamond Stakes (2001 Galileo), Middle Park Stakes (2000 Minardi, 2001 Johannesberg), Moyglare Stud Stakes (2000 Sequoyah, 2001 Quarter Moon, 2003 Necklace), National Stakes (1996 Desert King; 1997 King Of Kings, 2000 Beckett, 2001 Hawk Wing; 2003 One Cool Cat), Nunthorpe Stakes (1999 Stravinsky, 2001 Mozart), Phoenix Stakes (1999 Fasiliyev, 2002 Spartacus, 2003 One Cool Cat), Phoenix Stakes (1998 Lavery, 1999 Fasiliyev, 2000 Minardi, 2001 Johanesburg), Prix Morny (1998 Orpen, 1999 Fasiliyev, 2001 Johanesburg), Prix du Moulin (2002 Rock Of Gibraltar), Racing Post Trophy (1997 Saratoga Springs, 1999 Aristotle, 2001 High Chaparral, 2002 Brian Boru), Sussex Stakes (2000 Giant’s Causeway, 2002 Rock Of Gibraltar), Tattersalls Gold Cup (2003 Black Sam Bellamy) Wins in Britain 2000-2004: 10; 20 (champion trainer for win and place prize money); 10 (champion trainer for win and place prize money); 6; 4 Wins in 2005 (In Britain): 9
Winning jockey:-Name: Dettori, Lanfranco.Born: 15/12/70 in Milan, ItalyFirst winner: Rif (Turin, Italy, November 16, 1986), First British winner: Lizzy Hare (Goodwood June 9, 1987) First Success: Rif (Turin, Italy, November 16, 1986) Classic wins; (10) Vodafone Oaks (1994 Balanchine, 1995 Moonshell, 2002 Kazzia); St Leger (1995 Classic Cliche, 1996 Shantou, 2005 Scorpion), 2000 Guineas (1996 Mark of Esteem, 1999 Island Sands), 1000 Guineas (1998 Cape Verdi, 2002 Kazzia) Other major wins include: Ascot Gold Cup (1992, 1993 Drum Taps, 1998 Kayf Tara), Breeders’ Cup Mile (1994 Barathea), Breeders’ Cup Turf (1999 Daylami), Canadian International Stakes (2000 Mutafaweq), Cheveley Park Stakes (2000 Regal Rose, 2003 Carry On Katie), Coral-Eclipse Stakes (1998 Daylami; 2004 Refuse To Bend), Deutsches Derby (1991 Temporal), Dubai World Cup (1999 Almutawakel, 2000 Dubai Millennium, 2002 Street Cry, 2003 Moon Ballad), Fillies’ Mile (1990 Shamshir, 1999 Teggiano, 2000 Crystal Music), Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud (2005 Alkaased), Grosser Preis Von Baden (2002 Marienbard), Prix Vermeille (2003 Mezzo Soprano), Haydock Sprint Cup (1999 Diktat); Irish Champion Stakes (1998 Swain, 1999 Daylami, 2001 Fantastic Light, 2002 Grandera); Irish Oaks (2001 Lailani, 2003 Vintage Tipple), Irish Derby (1994 Balanchine), Irish 2000 Guineas (2000 Bachir, 2004 Dubawi), Irish St Leger (1999 Kayf Tara); Japan Cup (1996 Singspiel); Juddmonte International (1996 Halling, 1997 Singspiel, 2001 Sakhee), King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Diamond Stakes (1995 Lammtarra, 1998 Swain,1999 Daylami, 2004 Doyen), Lockinge Stakes (2000 Aljabr), Middle Park Stakes (1996 Bahamian Bounty), Nunthorpe Stakes (1993 Lochsong, 1995 So Factual, 1998 Lochangel), Poule d’Essai des Poulains (1995 Vettori; 2000 Bachir, 2001 Noverre), Prince of Wales’s Stakes (2001 Fantastic Light, 2002 Grandera), Prix Jacques le Marois (1999 Dubai Millennium, 2000 Muhtathir), Prix de la Salamandre (1998 Aljabr); Prix Maurice de Gheest (1999 Diktat); Prix Jean Prat (1998 Almutawakel), Prix du Jockey-Club (1992 Polytain), Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (1995 Lammtarra, 2001 Sakhee, 2002 Marienbard), Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (1990 Markofdistinction; 1996 Mark of Esteem, 1999 Dubai Millennium), St James’s Palace Stakes (1997 Starborough), Sussex Stakes (1991 Second Set, 1999 Aljabr, 2001 Noverre); Vodafone Coronation Cup (1996 Swain, 1997 Singspiel, 1999 Daylami, 2001 Mutafaweq), Yorkshire Oaks (1994 Only Royale) Wins 1987-2004: 8,22,75^,141,94,101,149,233*,216*,123,176,132,132,47,94,69,101, 195* ^Champion apprentice *Champion jockey Wins This Season: 52
THE VALUE BETTING COLUMN EVERY SATURDAY
DONCASTER, SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 10, 2005
GOING: Good to firm
for the best odds go to www.BritOdds.com
BP= the best price at the time of writing
3.25pm THE 2005 LADBROKES ST LEGER
NON-RUNNER AVALON Aidan O'Brien IRE NON-RUNNER
2) 5-11 HARD TOP (IRE) Ballymacoll Stud Sir Michael Stoute/Ryan Moore
Very progressive sort who is unbeaten in two runs this year. He should act on this soft ground and holds three others on Great Voltigeur form. Should stay well. BP= 11/4
3) 6031652 HATTAN (IRE) Saeed Manana Clive Brittain/Alan Munro
Talented performer who has yet to find best trip- whether it is one is somewhat doubtful though he has yet to try it. Sixth in the Vodafone Derby. BP= 50/1
4) 43-2104 KONG (IRE) Neil Jones John Dunlop/Richard Hughes
Fourth to Hard Top last time out and no real reason why he should reverse the placings. BP= 33/1
5) 12021 SCORPION (IRE) Sue Magnier & Michael Tabor Aidan O'Brien IRE/Frankie Dettori
Strong favourite - second in Irish Derby and winner of the Group One Juddmonte Grand Prix de Paris on his last two starts - but is worth opposing at the price. BP= Evens
6) 01-41531 TAWQEET (USA) (v) Hamdan Al Maktoum John Dunlop/Richard Hills
Consistent former handicapper should stay. It is whether he is good enough. BP= 16/1
7) 11203112 THE GEEZER Jeff Smith David Elsworth/Richard Quinn
Consistent sort who has yet to prove he stays this trip. Just beaten by Hard Top last time. BP= 11/2
SUMMARY
The value is with HARD TOP - excellent value to break his trainer’s duck in the final classic.
CODEBREAKER EVERY FRIDAY
formerly in the Racing Post Weekender
Group One £450,000 Ladbrokes St Leger, 1m 6f 132y
3.25pm DONCASTER, SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 10, 2005
Main Trends
17 of the last 18 winners were returned at 8/1 or less
15 of the last 18 winners had won earlier in the campaign
15 of the last 18 winners raced between three and five times earlier that term
11 of the last 18 winners won on their last start
The final classic of the season , the Ladbrokes St Leger, is now upon us and Codebreaker will examine the trends to pinpoint the likely winner form the seven declarations.
The most striking trend is that outsiders do not win the St Leger - the only real shock in recent times was the 40/1 shot Moonax in 1994 - with 17 of the last 18 winners returned at 8/1 or less. With Avalon, Tawqeet, Kong and Hattan all trading at more than this, they are the first to be eliminated.
Good recent form is important with well over half of the winners, 11 of 18, winners since 1987 having scored on their last start prior to Doncaster. That further eliminates The Geezer, who could only manage second last time.
Turning to the issue of previous outings, 15 of the last 18 winners ran between three and five times earlier in the season.
Of our two remaining entries, Hard Top has run just twice whereas Scorpion has run five times.
On that basis, the nod must go to SCORPION.
Confidence is boosted by the fact that Aidan O'Brien has won this race twice in recent years, with Milan in 2001 and Brian Boru in 2003, whereas Hard Top's trainer Sir Michael Stoute has trained five runners-up but enjoyed no successes from 22 attempts.
For old articles (from 1st March 2000) go to the Newslink
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