Saturday, September 22, 2001
VALUE BETTING COLUMN EVERY SATURDAY,
NEWBURY, SEPTEMBER 22, 2001
2.45pm THE £75,000 COURAGE BEST STAKES (HANDICAP) (CLASS B) 10f 6y
Best Prices: Coral Eurobet (CE), Ladbrokes (L), William Hill (H), and Tote (T)
1) 010134 Albuhera (IRE) 3-9-10 Mark Johnston Keith Dalgleish (3) 7
Top-weight Albuhera won at Newmarket in July and then finished third at York behind The Whistling Teal. That form has been boosted as the runner-up Lagudin has since won and Albuhera was not beaten far in a Listed race last time. Sure to be thereabouts and has been well-backed this morning and is down to about 7/1. Trainer in form. BP=12/1 H, CE
2) 042135 Nadour Al Bahr (IRE) 6-9-10 Terry Mills John Reid 9
The Terry Mills-trained Nadour Al Bahr was good enough to compete in Group events in Europe before joining his current handler. The Be My Guest gelding won a handicap at Ascot in July and he has not been far away in two subsequent events. Fair each-way prospects - a line through Scheming suggests he is within a length of Albuhera. BP=14/1 H, L, CE
3) 320300 Cracow (IRE) 4-9-08 John Hills Michael Hills 15
Cracow has run occasionallywell this season without getting his head in front. However, he has been quite well beaten on his last two outings and he might be best watched until returning to form. BP=25/1 H, L
4) 060555 Bonaguil (USA) 4-9-07 Chris Wall Richard Mullen 8
Four-year-old Bonaguil ran his best race this term when a two-length fifth behind Scheming at Ascot on August 12. Unfortunately he was then quite a long way behind the winner at Kempton last time over an extra two furlongs. He finished second in this race last year and could go close again but he is no value at this price. BP=6/1 L, CE
5) 261000 John Hunter (IRE) 4-9-06 Barry Hills Kieren Fallon 5
The previously unraced John Hunter began the season over an inadequate seven furlongs and is now competing over middle distances. He won a Redcar maiden over this trip in May and although he has shown little form since then the booking of Kieren Fallon is highly-interesting, but the horse still has plenty to prove. BP=16/1 H, CE
6) 100045 Elmhurst Boy 5-9-03 Simon Dow NON-RUNNER
7) 165100 Soft Breeze 3-9-02 Ed Dunlop Gary Carter 6
The Ed Dunlop-trained Soft Breeze won a mile handicap at Ascot on August 12 which resulted in a subsequent hike in the weights. She has been beaten on her last two starts but was hampered last time out. First time at this trip but the value is not here. BP=8/1 T, CE
8) 343316 Culzean (IRE) 5-9-2 Richard Hannon Dane O'Neill 11
Culzean is another participant who was raised sharply for a victory - this time a comprehensive three-length defeat of Tarboush at Kempton over ten furlongs in July. Beaten five lengths last time, he will have to improve to figure in the finish here. BP=20/1 CE
9) 3-00000 Kirovski (IRE) 4-9-01 Peter Harris Willie Supple 13
Hertfordshire-based handler Peter Harris is stepping Kirovski up in trip but it is still difficult to see the trainer following up on his success in this race last season with Komistar. The four-year-old has not been beaten too far, including at Goodwood three outings ago, is some of his races but a lot has to be taken on trust. BP=20/1 L
10) 611465 Torrid Kentavr (USA) 4-9-01 Brian Ellison Lee Newman 17
Torrid Kentavr has had a great season winning races at Kempton and Sandown for his previous trainer. He has been raised in class since those victories and although holding his own at Goodwood in July has been disappointing since. This is a tough heat and it’s hard to see him being good enough. BP=16/1 T
11) 304002 Chem's Truce (IRE) 4-9-01 William Muir Jason Weaver 1
Chem’s Truce ran well last time out but is not consistent and therefore not a reliable wager. BP=12/1 CE
12) 6-41054 Hasty Prince 3-9-00 Ben Hanbury Gerald Mosse 14
Hasty Prince was good enough to beat The Glen in a maiden earlier in the season. As a result the son of Halling began his handicap career on a very high mark. He has dropped nearly 10lb since but on his latest form would appear to have something to find here. BP=16/1 H, L, T
13) 000500 Sir Ninja (IRE) 4-8-12 Dominic ffrench Davis NON RUNNER
14) 222113 Scotty's Future (IRE) 3-8-11 A. C. Stewart Royston Ffrench 10
Three-year-old Scotty’s Future was desperately unlucky not to win on his first three outings this season but he put that right with victories at Ripon and Doncaster. He has gone up from a mark of 65 to 87 as a result, although he has a chance of defying the handicapper here as he was only just beaten at Newmarket last time. No value really BP=8/1 T
15) 4301 Morro Castle (USA) 3-8-08 Clive Brittain Seb Sanders 2
This is Morro Castle’s first outing in handicap company after winning his maiden last time at Sandown. He put in a great front-running show on that occasion but it was probably quite an ordinary race and this is much harder indeed. BP=16/1 CE
16) 635010 Junikay (IRE) 7-8-07 Roger Ingram Steve Drowne 4
Junikay’s two victories this season have come in lesser company than this and the Treasure Kay gelding has been raised for his most recent success at Kempton earlier this month. Probably would be considered something of a shock if he were to trouble the judge today. BP=20/1 L
17) 001102 Pension Fund 7-8-06 Mick Easterby Dale Gibson 16
Pension Fund ran well in defeat at the end of last month only being beaten a length by Royal Minstrel. That rival has subsequently gone in again so this Mick Easterby-trained gelding must have chance here. A winner at Chester and York earlier in the summer, he has gone up in the weights. BP=9/1 CE
18) 4-30202 Princes Theatre 3-8-02 Ian Balding Michael Doyle (7) 12
Despite Ian Balding’s Kingsclere yard being in good form taking yesterday’s Mill Reef Stakes with Firebreak, Princes Theatre just does not look good enough for this event. Still a maiden his two outings in handicap company have resulted in wide-margin defeats. BP=40/1 H, L, T
Summary
This is a very open handicap. NADOUR AL BAHR is running well and looks excellent each-way value.
NEWS FROM GLOBEFORM
ARC OUTSIDER PREPS AT LONGCHAMP ON SUNDAY
MAILLE PISTOL, so impressive on heavy ground in France in the spring, gets his
preparation for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (G1) at Longchamp on Sunday.
The son of Pistolet Bleu could finish only eighth in the Prix du Jockey-Club (G1)
in June, when running to Globeform 109. His win in the Prix Hocquart (G2) in
May represents far better form. Maille Pistol ran out an eight-length winner
from SAGACITY that day, performing to GF 118+.
A repeat of that mark will probably see him back in the winner’s circle at Longchamp on Sunday. Sagacity is again in opposition, but Maille Pistol could have more to fear from Godolphin’s EQUERRY. This son of St. Jovite has not run for a year, as he was last seen in action landing the Prix des Chenes (G3) last term. Equerry beat
Mizzen Mast in the Chenes, his third win in as many starts, and ran to
Globeform 108+.
His sire was a champion over 12 furlongs in Europe, winning
the Irish Derby (G1) and the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Diamond Stakes
(G1) in great style. Equerry’s dam Colour Chart (Mr Prospector) is a daughter
of the Canadian champion Rainbow Connection. The Godolphin runner is thus bred
to stay this trip and he is a very interesting runner. While the ground is
expected to be testing on Sunday, Equerry did all his racing at two on good
ground.
Hightori won this event last year, before running fifth to Sinndar in the Arc.
GLOBEFORM RATINGS
PRIX DU PRINCE D’ORANGE (G3)
2400 metres / 1 ½ miles Longchamp Sunday
118+ MAILLE PISTOL
110 RED SNAKE
109 SAGACITY
108+ EQUERRY
103 CHRONOS
101 POUSSIN
? BREKNEN LE NOIR
Maille Pistol carries four pounds more than the others, which means that he
has four pounds “in hand” on Red Snake, five pounds in hand in Sagacity etc…
FABRE JUVENILE IN FOCUS
Andre Fabre saddled the impressive WAR ZONE to win the Prix Zeddan (LR) at
Maisons-Laffitte on Tuesday. War Zone won as he pleased, beating Elli by 4
lengths. Fabre steps another of his youngster, the unbeaten SHAANMER, up to
pattern company on Sunday. The son of Darshaan is Globeform’s top-rated in the
four-runner Prix des Chenes (G3), which is run over a mile. Shaanmer ran to GF
99+ when beating Kerami 2 ½ lengths at Deauville last month.
He faces two interesting colts on Sunday; NIGHT BOKBEL and CAESARION. Night Bokbel (Night Shift) was a 5-length winner of a newcomers’ event at Deauville, and CAESARION (Danehill) was a good second to Massalani at Chantilly on his debut. He had Keramani 2 lengths behind in third, indicating that he is not far behind
Shaanmer, whose experience makes him the logical choice on Sunday.
GLOBEFORM RATINGS
PRIX DES CHENES (G3) 2yo
1600 metres / 1 mile Longchamp Sunday
99+ SHAANMER
95+ NIGHT BOKBEL
94+ CAESARION
90 EXISTENTIALISTE
GRANDERA RUNS IN ARC TRIAL TODAY
Grandera, placed in three Group Ones this year, faces four opponent in the
Dubai Arc Trial (LR) at Newbury in England on Saturday. The 11-furlong contest
has attracted three 4-year-olds and two 3-year-olds. Chancellor, running here
rathger than in the Prix de Prince d’Orange at Longchamp on Sunday, is the
other 3-year-old.
Grandera has the best form in the field, after doing well in the Prix du
Jockey-Club (third to Anabaa Blue), the Eclipse Stakes (second to Medicean)
and on his latest start in the Juddmonte International (second to Sakhee).
Godolphin will not be representetd in the Arc Trial, but Sheikh Mohammed’s
team will undoubtedly be watching Grandera with great interest.
A good performance by the son of Grand Lodge willl further boost the ability of
SAKHEE, who is still a possible Arc runner. Sakhee ran to Globeform 130 in the
International Stakes (G1) at York, where Grandera performed to GF 113. James
Fanshawe’s game colt had run to GF 114+ when an unlucky third in the French
Derby (Prix du Jockey-Club) and to GF 115 when going down by half a length in
the Eclipse Stakes. Consistent as he is, Grandera looks a notch below what
will be required in the Prix de l’Arc. He will need a lifetime best on
Saturday, to justify a run against the very best at Longchamp on October 7.
His main rival looks to be the ultra game Mubtaker, trained by Marcus
Tregoning. Mubtaker ran to GF 114 winning a Listed race over 12 furlongs at
Newmarket in July (with Compton Bolter below form in fourth place). The
slightly shorter distance will not bother him.
GLOBEFORM RANKING
DUBAI ARC TRIAL (LR)
11 furlongs / 1 3/16 miles Newbury Saturday
Ratings adjusted to weights carried and weight-for-age (3yo: 7lb)
115 GRANDERA
114 MUBTAKER
112 COMPTON BOLTER
111 MILETRIAN
104 CHANCELLOR
JIM AND TONIC READY FOR BREEDERS' CUP MILE
Breeders’ Cup Mile contender Jim And Tonic, the 7-year-old globetrotting
gelding by Double Bed, made a satisfactory return to action at
Maisons-Laffitte on Tuesday. Francois Doumen’s top class miler ran out a
comfortable winner of the La Coupe de Maisons-Laffitte (G3). Racing over a
straight ten furlongs – versatile as he is – Jim And Tonic won by 2 lengths.
As predicted in our previous newsletter, the 3-year-old Visorhill (Danehill)
proved best of the others. He beat Cazouilas by ¾ length for second. Jim And
Tonic paid just under 8/11 to win but the exacta with Visorhill returned a
generous 7.3-1 on the French tote.
Jim And Tonic needed the run on Tuesday, he did not have to be near his very
best to win this race. He performed to Globeform 123 beating Fairy King Prawn
and Sunline in Dubai in March, and returned GF 116+ at Maisons-Laffitte. A
clear indication that he has retained his enthusiasm and ability. Coral
Bookmakers in England took a 1000 pound win bet on him for the Breeders’ Cup
Mile (G1) after the race, at odds of 14-1. The firm have now cut Jim And
Tonic’s price to 10-1.
GLOBEFORM RATINGS
LA COUPE DE MAISONS-LAFFITTE (G3)
2000 metres / 1 ¼ miles - Very soft ground
1 – 116+ JIM AND TONIC
2 – 107+ VISORHILL
3 – 105 CAZOULIAS
4 – 104 CHERBON
5 – 104 MOCHAM GLEN
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