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Saturday, August 18, 2007


THE VALUE BETTING COLUMN EVERY SATURDAY

NEWBURY, SATURDAY, AUGUST 18, 2007

3.20pm £85,000 CGA HUNGERFORD STAKES (GROUP 2) 7f

GOING: GOOD



for the best odds go to www.BritOdds.com
BP= the best price at the time of writing


1) 13113- CARADAK Saeed Bin Suroor 6-9-07 Frankie Dettori
Not seen out yet this year but top class at his best, taking Group One Prix de la Foret at Longchamp over this trip in September. Third in this race last year on unsuitably soft ground and looks the class act, but penalty will not make life easy. Respected nonetheless. BP= 13/2

2) 118-97 DARK ISLANDER John Hills 4-9-05 Michael Hills
Loves to hear his hooves rattle and enjoyed finest hour on fast surface in Grade Two Oak Tree Derby at Santa Anita in October. Disappointing first run back this term but did better at Goodwood latest when not getting clearest of passages and has a chance of making the frame here if improving for that run. BP= 20/1

3) 15-177 RED EVIE Michael Bell 4-9-04 Jamie Spencer
Done her connections proud, rattling off an amazing seven-timer last year, winding up with Group One success in Leopardstown's Matron Stakes, and captured the Group One Lockinge Stakes here over a furlong further on her seasonal return. However, below par last two outings and, though must have an excellent chance on her best form, doubts remain over her current well-being. BP= 11/2

4) 510405 ASSERTIVE Richard Hannon 4-9-03 Ryan Moore
Better known as a six-furlong specialist, winning three times at Listed level, but does stay seven furlongs. Looks to have it all to do in this high-class renewal. BP= 25/1

5) 332009 BECKERMET Roger Fisher 5-9-03 Steve Drowne
Likeable sort who mostly competes at six furlongs these days, although has been second over an extended seven furlongs at Chester. Has scored at the course, taking six-furlong Listed event back in 2005, but highly unlikely to be good enough in this grade and is passed over. BP= 66/1

6) 22410- STRONGHOLD John Gosden 5-9-03 Richard Hughes
Not many miles on the clock for a five-year-old and continued progression last year, taking Group Three Supreme Stakes at Goodwood. Trip and ground look perfect but this a tough race for a seasonal reappearance. BP= 6/1

7) 20-934 WELSH EMPEROR Tom Tate 8-9-03 Micky Fenton
Hit the jackpot in this race a year ago when relishing the rain-softened ground, and has run well without getting his head in front this term, as when fourth last time out in Newmarket Group Three behind Silver Touch and now 3lb better in for a length. Closely tied in with Caradak on form last season. Likes a straight seven furlongs. Excellent value and ther was some rain overnight. BP= 14/1

8) 95-813 SILVER TOUCH Mick Channon 4-9-00 Tadhg OìShea
Improving filly who followed success in Group Three Criterion Stakes with career-best third to Marchand D'Or in Group One Maurice de Gheest at Deauville last time over half a furlong less. This trip will suit better and she looks to have excellent claims of reaching the places. BP= 4/1

9) 22-141 WAKE UP MAGGIE Chris Wall 4-9-00 George Baker
Two fine wins this year in Group Three company sandwiching a poor run in Ireland, although sticky ground was likely to blame there. Defied penalty to score in good style at Goodwood latest and seven furlongs on decent surface, looks tailor-made for this filly, but this class demands further progress. Chance if things fall right but held by Silver Touch on last season’s form. BP= 4/1

10) 10-191 DUBAI'S TOUCH Mark Johnston 3-8-12 Greg Fairley
Gutsy win in Listed race over a mile at Goodwood on August 4, having run only ninth in Group Two Betfair Cup four days earlier. Has a course and distance victory to his name and ground will be no problem but this is much tougher and is possibly biting off more than he can chew at this stage of his career. Best on fast ground. BP= 12/1

11) 41-111 PER INCANTO John Dunlop 3-8-12 Richard Hills
Recruited from Italy by new connections, where he took a Group Three event over six furlongs at Capannelle when last seen in May. Has won over this trip and seems versatile as regards ground, but guesswork needed as to how competitive he will be in this classy event on British debut. Could be anything. BP= 8/1

SUMMARY

Stick with last year’s winner WELSH EMPEROR who is excellent value each-way.


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