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Saturday, August 20, 2005


THE VALUE BETTING COLUMN EVERY SATURDAY




SANDOWN, SATURDAY, AUGUST 20, 2005




3:30pm £20,000 totesport.com Handicap (0-100) 5f 6y



GOING: SOFT, GOOD TO SOFT IN PLACES

for the best odds go to britodds.com
BP= the best price at the time of writing

1) (8) 4-07 Enchantment Milton Bradley 4-9-05 Kevin Darley
Late starter this season and the form of his two runs so far does not make him look a likely winner here off of top weight but he does go on soft ground. BP= 20/1

2) (2) 0960 Night Prospector David Feek 5-9-04 Ian Mongan
Useful performer in Group company on his day, but has not looked competitive off his current mark in handicaps of late. BP= 33/1

3) (4) 8906 Khabfair Amanda Perrett 4-9-04p Johnny Murtagh
Showed signs of a return to form last time and an interesting contender on the best of last season’s form, although he has yet to true over the minimum trip and is not certain to be suited by it or the soft ground. BP= 18/1

4) (7) 0000 Smokin Beau Nick Littmoden 8-9-03 Nelson De Souza(3)
Tough veteran and best at five furlongs, but looks in the grip of the handicapper at present. BP= 16/1

5) (14) 1195 Out After Dark Clive Cox 4-9-03p Adam Kirby(5)
Won the Gosforth Park Cup Handicap and was fifth in the Stewards’ Cup last time which puts him bang in contention, particularly with the stable in good form and a talented apprentice aboard, plus a good draw. BP= 9/2

6) (9) 0511 Green Manalishi David Arbuthnot 4-8-13 Richard Hughes
Comes into the race on the back of wins here at Sandown and Newbury. Certainly looks the most progressive horse in the field but could prove worth opposing on his toughest assignment to date and a change of jockey. BP= 9/2

7) (11) 0044 Fromsong Rod Millman 7-8-12 George Baker
Useful campaigner who is best over five furlongs. His fourth at Haydock last time puts him in contention although always liable to find or two a bit too good these dayswhile soft ground may be against him. BP= 10/1

8) (12) 0175 Polish Emperor Walter Swinburn 5-8-12p Richard Quinn
Has been in good heart of late and another in with a shout but would not be suited by any more rain plus he is racing off his highest-ever mark. BP= 12/1

9) (10) -690 Loaderfun Henry Candy 3-8-10 Dane O’Neill
Useful juvenile form last season but not much encouragement last two runs. BP= 14/1

10) (3) 0008 Cape Royal Milton Bradley 5-8-09t Ryan Moore
Useful sprinter when on song but has been struggling of late. Now dropping down the handicap but rarely wins. BP= 14/1

11) (6) 3800 Jayanjay Brooke Sanders 6-8-08 Jimmy Quinn
Returning to his optimum trip and any easing of the ground would help but lookslike heis currently racing off too high a mark. BP= 25/1

12) (1) 1013 The Jobber Michael Blanshard 4-8-07 NR

13) (15) 5400 Malapropism Mick Channon 5-8-06 Tony Culhane
Has been struggling to make his mark lately but is dropping down the handicap likes this ground plus having a good draw. Pricewise selection who was 18/1. BP= 10/1

14) (13) 0905 Pic Up Sticks Brendan Powell 6-8-05 Tom Queally
Has not shown his best form for a while but is now on a much lower rating. Has yet to win at five furlongs. BP= 12/1

15) (5) 1384 Devon Flame Bridget Young 6-8-00 Colin Haddon(5)
Progressed well from claiming company and open to more improvement. Has a chance, although would ideally not want any more rain. BP= 25/1

SUMMARY
A typically competitive sprint handicap. OUT AFTER DARK looks the best value with plenty of question marks over the others.




CODEBREAKER

formerly in Racing Post Weekender

SATURDAY, AUGUST 20, 2005, SANDOWN PARK

2.20pm £40,000 Iveco Daily Solario Stakes, Group Three, 7f 16y



Main Trends

13 of the last 14 winners had won earlier in the campaign

12 of the last 14 winners had raced between two and five times previously that season

10 of the last 14 winners were placed in the first three on their last start


The Iveco Daily Solario Stakes at Sandown gives horseracing enthusiasts the opportunity to have a look at some possible candidates for next season’s classic events.


Richard Hannon, John Gosden and Sir Mark Prescott have done well in this Group Three event over the last 14 years. Each trainer has won it twice, the first-named with King’s Ironbridge and Redback in 2000 and 2001 respectively, Gosden with Foss Way in 2002 and Windsor Knot last year and Sir Mark Prescott took it with Chicmond and Brave Act in 1991 and 1996.


13 of the last 14 winners had won earlier in the campaign - the one exception was the Clive Brittain-trained Best Of The Bests six years ago who had only run once before when third in a Doncaster maiden.


Codebreaker must immediately narrow down this year’s field as the Neville Callaghan-trained Kilworth has not won in 2005.


Since 1991, 12 of the last 14 winners had raced between two and five times previously that season. The two anomalies were Best Of The Bests (as outlined earlier) and Redback, who had been seen on a racecourse seven times earlier in the campaign.


Rising Cross has already been seen out on six occasions and is the next one discounted.

10 of the last 14 winners were placed in the first three on their last start. The four anomalies were Redback, King’s Ironbridge, 2003 hero Barbajuan and Lovely Millie in 1994.


This trend rules out Yasoodd, who finished sixth on his most recent outing.


Staying the seven-furlong trip seems quite an important requisite to win here - eight of the 13 horses in the last 14 years to have previously won over this distance. A further three raced over seven furlongs immediately prior to the Solario.

Asset and Saabiq have already proved that they possess speed, both having won over six furlongs. However, when it comes to Sandown’s stiff seven furlongs, there is no guarantee over their stamina yet and this pair is discounted.


Separating CLOSE TO YOU and Opera Cape is no easy task but the former is this week’s Codebreaker selection due to his having won three times.

Eight of the last 14 winners had won more than once, while Opera Cape, as promising as he is, has only one win to his name.

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