2.10pm £15,000 added JOHN SMITH'S CASK HANDICAP, 1m
GOING: HEAVY
for the best odds go to www.BritOdds.com
BP= the best price at the time of writing
1)(1) 0-0(3)33 GRANSTON James Bethell 6-10-00 NON RUNNER
2)(10) 331524 FULL VICTORY Rodney Farrant 5-9-11 William Buick (5)
Acts on rain-softened ground and scored an easy win over the distance at Sandown in May. That success came off a 13lb lower mark but he is not out of this with a good apprentice taking off a useful 5lb. BP= 8/1
3)(6) -32312 IL CASTAGNO Bryan Smart 4-9-11 NON RUNNER
4)(7) 0(0)-503 VICIOUS WARRIOR Richard Whitaker 8-9-11 Dean McKeown
Veteran campaigner in races of this nature and capable of winning off his current mark, especially with this jockey on board who knows him well. Ran well at Haydock last time out. BP= 11/1
5)(3) 305-21 WEBBOW Tim Easterby 5-9-07 David Allan
Successful over a mile on good to soft at Carlisle last time but the fast time suggests the groround was faster than that. Is up 7lb for that win but is likely to have more improvement in him on only his third start of the season. Would probably prefer better ground. BP= 3/1
6)(8) 55-111 THE GREY BERRY Tim Walford 3-9-05 Graham Gibbons
Completed a hat-trick in mile handicaps when scoring on heavy ground at Beverley on July 7. Holds claims despite a 10lb rise for the latest victory. No value here. BP= 11/8
7)(2) (0)(3)1(2)20 EXIT SMILING Paul Midgley 5-9-05 Micky Fenton.
Has been running consistently well this season but appears handicapped to the hilt as his eighth of 16 in the Carlisle Bell last time suggests and probably needs better ground.. BP= 16/1
8)(11) 264-03 RODEO Chris Thornton 4-9-02b Darryll Holland
Lightly-raced maiden who has slipped to a fair mark. His third on heavy ground at Beverley last time suggests he could win a race. Some improvement can be expected and he could make the frame. BP= 16/1
9(5) 041932 KING OF THE MOORS David Barron 4-9-01 Phillip Makin
Scored over nine furlongs at Redcar in May and has since run better than the bare form suggests. Still capable of winning off his present handicap mark but may prefer a sounder surface. BP= 22/1
10(9) 53-(1)05 RABBIT FIGHTER Paul Blockley 3-8-10 Paul Mulrennan
Won a modest Wolverhampton Polytrack maiden in March but well beaten in two handicaps since, including when no match for The Grey Berry at Beverley. Dropping down the handicap and cannot be ignored totally. BP= 25/1
11(4) 056156 EFIDIUM Neville Bycroft 9-8-09 Gihan Arnolda (7)
Veteran campaigner who enjoyed a deserved win over a mile at Redcar in June. Acts on soft ground and must have a chance in these conditions off bottom weight.. BP= 28/1
SUMMARY
A fascinating race where is is worth opposing both market leaders for being too short in the betting. The two I like are the bottom-weight EFIDIUM who likes this sort of ground and has been running most consistently and Vicious Warrior who is from a yard in form. The former gets the nod because he is s bigger price.
GOOD LUCK
Codebreaker for Saturday, July 14, 2007
CODEBREAKER - FORMERLY IN THE RACING POST WEEKENDER
YORK, SATURDAY, JULY 14, 2007
GOING: SOFT
3.15pm £150,000 48th John Smith’s Cup 10f 88yds
Main Trends
all of the last 17 winners were aged three, four or five
16 of the last 17 winners had raced between one and four times previously that season
The last four winners have all carried more than 8st 12lb
14 of the last 17 winners have been drawn nine or below
12 of the last 17 winners had their last outing on or after June 9
Codebreaker solved the puzzle of last year's John Smith's Cup at York when selecting the winner Fairmile, who rewarded supporters at odds of 6/1.
This year's 48th running of the John Smith's Cup, over an extended 10 furlongs, appears to be as ultra-competitive as ever but Codebreaker will review the trends in an attempt to repeat the success of 2006
All of the last 17 winners were aged three, four or five and this trend does not bode well for six-year-olds Flipando, Star Of Light and Fort Churchill, while the seven-year-old Folio, eight-year-old Baillieborough, and the granddaddy of the 20 runners, the nine-year-old Resonate, are all eliminated.
Of the last 17 winners of the John Smith's Cup, no horse had raced on more than four occasions previously that season before lining up at York, while at the opposite end of the spectrum only Pasternak in 1997 won on his seasonal debut.
Top-weight Luberon, Speedy Sam, Fortunate Isle and Collateral Damage have had more than four outings already this campaign and they are discounted.
The nature of the Knavesmire means that a good draw is another factor that connections hope for. Since 1990, only three winners were not drawn in stalls one to nine.
So Hassaad (20), Emirates Skyline (18), and Smart Instinct (12) are discounted.
Weight in any handicap is crucial to the outcome and there has been a change in recent seasons, with the last four winners carrying more than 8st 12lb.
This means that the Sir Michael Stoute-trained Greek Well (8st 6lb), Kyoto Summit (8st 7lb) from the Mick Easterby yard, and the Richard Fahey-trained pair Avoriaz (8st 8lb) and Flying Clarets (8st 8lb) all get the chop.
This leaves Charlie Tokyo, Pevensey and Hitchcock. Further analysis shows that prior to Fairmile's success last year, the four previous victors each carried more than 9st so the Fahey-trained Charlie Tokyo (8st 12lb) is overlooked.
This leaves a very difficult choice between the John Quinn-trained Pevensey and Hitchock from the powerful Aidan O'Brien yard, who were first and third respectively in the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes over a mile and a half at Royal Ascot on their latest start on June 23.
John Quinn's team has been in fantastic form over the past 12 months but Pevensey's age counts against the five-year-old. Seven four-year-olds have won the John Smith's Cup since 1990, including the last four, while only five five-year-olds have been successful in the same period.
This means that marginal preference is for the lightly-raced four-year-old HITCHCOCK who is the Codebreaker selection. His trainer took the prize in 2005 with Mullins Bay and can land the spoils again with this similarly unexposed type.
For old articles (from 1st March 2000) go to the Newslink
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