for the best odds go to www.BritOdds.com
BP= the best price at the time of writing
Going: Good to Firm (firm in places)
3pm £9,000 totecourse to course Handicap 1m 2f 75yds
1. (4) 0348 Instructor Richard Fahey 5-9-07 J-P Guillambert
Best form when making the running and has done well at York. Disappointed last twice when did not get the lead. This course should suit him better though he has never won off his rating today of 77. His last success was off 70. BP= 4/1
2. (3) 8213 Go Solo G Swinbank 5-9-07 Dean McKeown
Likes fast ground but best form over eight or nine furlongs. Consistent sort who cannot be left out but no value. BP= 13/8
3. (5) 0-06 Paparaazi Richard Fahey 4-9-02 Gyles Parkin
Has not run since January but trainer must always be respected. BP= 25/1
4. (7) 9041 Nashaab P D Evans 9-8-13v Francis Norton
Won a Chepstow mile handicap last time out despite coming from way back. Neither his course nor the longer trip are likely to suit him, though he has won here twice over a mile in the past. BP= 7/1
5. (2) 0512 Billy One Punch George Margarson 4-8-08 Tony Culhane
Front-runner who came good at Folkestone two runs ago and ran creditably last time. He has scope and this course is likely to be ideal. Jockey in form. Good value. BP= 4/1
6. (1)-357 Barbirolli Mark Brisbourne 4-8-06 Liam Jones(5)
Held by Billy One Punch on recent Leicester form but has won over course and distance.BP= 10/1
7. (6) 5418 Scotty ìs Future Alan Berry 8-8-05 Daragh O’Donohoe
Seems best with some cut in the ground. Trainer out of form. BP= 14/1
Summary
An interesting handicap with Billy One Punch the clear value.
GOOD LUCK
CODEBREAKER - FORMERLY IN THE RACING POST WEEKENDER
YORK. SATURDAY, JULY 15, 2006
3.55pm £150,000 47th John Smith’s Cup 10f 88yds
Main Trends
all of the last 16 winners were aged three, four or five
15 of the last 16 winners had raced between one and four times previously that season
The last four winners have all carried more than 9st
13 of the last 16 winners have been drawn nine or below
11 of the last 16 winners had their last outing on or after June 9
York plays host to the 47th running of the John Smith’s Cup, a very competitive handicap over an extended 10 furlongs.
All of the last 16 winners were aged three, four or five and of this year’s 20 contestants, this trend does not bode well for six-year-olds Dunaskin, El Coto, James Caird and Go Tech, seven-year-olds Courageous Duke, Blue Spinnaker, Bustan and Impeller who are all eliminated.
Of the last 16 winners of the John Smith’s Cup, no horse had raced on more than four occasions previously that season before lining up at York, while at the opposite end of the spectrum only Pasternak in 1997 won on his seasonal debut.
Divine Gift, Chantico, Boo and Brave Maestrto have had more than four outings already this campaign and they are discounted.
Weight in any handicap is crucial to the outcome and there has been a change in recent seasons, with the last four winners carrying more than 9st.
This means that Focus Group gets the chop.
A good draw is another factor that connections hoped for - the last two winners have been drawn 19 and 18 respectively but since 1990 Mr Confusion, only one other winner has not been drawn in stalls one to nine.
So I’m So Lucky (13), Public Forum (11), Motive (17), Great Plains (14) and Forgery (16) are discounted.
This leaves the Walter Swinburn-trained Fairmile as the Codebreaker selection.
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