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Saturday, July 16, 2005


THE VALUE BETTING COLUMN EVERY SATURDAY




NEWMARKET, SATURDAY, JULY 16, 2005

4:10pm Dodson And Horrell Handicap (0-85) 1m 6f 175y



GOING: GOOD TO FIRM

for the best odds from British bookmakers, go to britodds.com
BP= best price at the time of writing

1.(9) 3419 Lets Roll Chris Thornton 4-9-07 David Tudhope(3)
Best on a softish surface and unproven over this trip. BP=7/1

2.(6) -851 Mandatum Luca Cumani 4-9-04 Nicky Mackay
Twice a winner over 12 furlongs but has failed over longer trips. Often makes the running. BP= 9/4

3.(7) 7-17 Topkat David Elsworth 4-9-03 Jamie Mackay
Twice a winner over 12 furlongs at Salisbury. Run without success at this longer distance,pulling too hard last time out. BP= 6/1

4.(8) 6034 Dancing Lyra John Hills 4-9-02 Richard Hills
He is 3lb better off for a half length beating by Topkat at Salisbury over 12 furlongs and was staying on well that day, suggesting this longer trip will suit. BP= 7/1

5.(2) 7052 Bendarshaan Mark Johnston 5-9-00 Michael Hills
Stays very well but lacks pace and this is very quick return to action. BP= 9/2

6.(5) 8620 Annambo David Morris 5-8-13 Dane O ìNeill
In and out performer who is best on fast ground. BP= 28/1

7.(3) 1467 Typhoon Tilly Charlie Egerton 8-8-06 Steve Drowne
Has done well on the all-weather track at Wolverhampton but this is a tougher proposition after some time off. BP= 9/1

8.(4) 50-3 Red Scorpion Mark Brisbourne 6-8-02 Chris Catlin
Promising return to action here at Newmarket last month but has never won on the turf. BP= 14/1

9.(1) 5008 Moldavia N B King 4-8-02p Hayley Turner(3)
Has shown no recent form. BP= 100/1


SUMMARY
DANCING LYRA has a chance of improving at this trip and is in good form. He is excellent each-way value.




CODEBREAKER -
For Saturday, July 16, 2005

3.05pm, £20,000-added Chris Blackwell Memorial Handicap, Newmarket 1m



Past Trends

15 of the last 16 winners had already won in the season of victory

13 of the last 16 winners carried between 8st 9lb and 9st 7lb to victory

13 of the last 16 winners had previously raced between two and four times earlier that season

11 of the last 16 winners were drawn between stalls one and six

One of the feature races from Newmarket on Saturday is the £20,000-added Chris Blackwell Memorial Handicap, which is run over a mile for three-year-olds only, with a weight range of 8st 2lb to 9st 7lb.


15 of the last 16 winners had already won in the season of victory - the one exception to the rule was the 2001 hero Putra Pekan, whose best earlier finish that campaign was a fourth in a classified stakes at Newmarket.


Of this year’s ten runners this trend immediately rules out top-weight Army Of Angels and Bentley’s Bush as neither has been able to win yet this term. The former came close when running second at Sandown two weeks ago, while Bentley’s Bush is making his seasonal bow.


Since 1989 13 winners carried between 8st 9lb and 9st 7lb to victory. The three anomalies were Absonal (8st 1lb) and Abdicate (8st) in 1990 and 1991 respectively and the Jeremy Noseda-trained Diamond Lodge last season off 8st 7lb, which was a fine performance as he was 2lb wrong at the weights.


Brian Meehan’s Humble Opinion has been tremendously consistent this term, winning or being placed on his last four starts, but the chances are that off 8st 7lb, he will be unable to repeat the feat of last year’s hero, while the other five below him in the weights, Banba, Cross Time, Pearl King, Bolodenka and My Princess, also get the chop.


13 of the last 16 winners had previously raced between two and four times earlier that season. Horses in the past 16 seasons who did not match this criteria include 2002 winner Macaw, who was seen on a racecourse seven times earlier, River Times in 1999 (six previous starts) and Absonal in 1990 (seven previous runs).


This does not bode well for Macaulay, who despite easily winning a maiden has only appeared once already in 2005 and disappears from the reckoning.


This leaves the Barry Hills-trained PAPER TALK as this week’s Codebreaker selection.


Confidence behind the selection is increased by the fact that he will emerge from stall two, the same draw that Stanton Harcourt had when he prevailed in 1997.

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