Saturday,July 3, 2004
THE VALUE BETTING COLUMN EVERY SATURDAY
SATURDAY, JULY 3, 2004, SANDOWN PARK, UK
3.15pm £375,000 Coral-Eclipse Stakes 1m 2f, Group One
Going - Good to soft
BP = at the time of writing but for the best current odds go to www.BritOdds.com (Click on link above)
1(13) 9189 Chancellor 32 John Dunlop 6-9-07 Seb Sanders 1
He has won on three of his four starts at Sandown but all at Group Three levels - often makes the running but will be outclassed here.
BP= 66/1
2(7) 3623 Ikhtyar 17 John Gosden 4-9-07 Richard Hills
Ran his best race when third to Rakti last time out in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes. A progressive sort who handles softish ground but does not want it very soft. 131
BP= 9/1
3(4) -369 Imperial Dancer 29 Mick Channon 6-9-07 Ted Durcan
Ran better than his form figures suggest on his last two runs and is not out of it on his very best form. Suited by coming off the pace in fast-run races on softish ground - that what he gets today The best outsider for value.
BP= 8 40/1
4(8) 7-68 Kaieteur non-runner
5(3) 2-21 Kalaman 38 Sir Michael Stoute 4-9-07 Kieren Fallon 129
Yet to prove he stays this trip and goes on this ground. Also has something to find on form but can improve.
BP= 14/1
6(1) -862 Maktub 13 Michael Jarvis 5-9-07 Gary Carter 125
Highly tried but was flattered by his second in an Italian Group One last time out.
BP= 150/1
7(11) -430 Norse Dancer 18 David Elsworth 4-9-07b1 Richard Quinn 126
Has been disappointing and was 12th in this race last year. Trainer though is returning to form.
BP= 28/1
8(10) 3-12 Powerscourt 17 Aidan O’Brien Ire 4-9-07 Jamie Spencer
Consistent sort who was a good second to Rakti at Royal Ascot. Possibly still on the upgrade and the shining light so far for Aidan O’Brien who has had a poor season. 129
BP= 13/2
9(12) 12-1 Rakti 17 Michael Jarvis 5-9-07 Philip Robinson 135
Came and demolished a good field on his seaonal debut at Royal Ascot - a top horse but this good to soft ground is a worry though he has won on it in Italy. A short price.
BP= 11/8
10(9) -881 Refuse To Bend 18 Saeed Bin Suroor 4-9-07t Frankie Dettori 130
Bounced back to form in the mile Queen Anne, Group One, at Royal Ascot but has yet to prove he stays further and he has never experienced soft going.
BP= 7/1
11(6) -531 Warrsan 29 Clive Brittain 6-9-07 Darryll Holland 131
Most consistent sort who came with a good run to take the 12-furlong Vodafone Coronation Cup. Has not raced over such a short trip since his debut and it may be too sharp.
BP= 12/1
12(5) 1111 African Dream 57 Peter Chapple-Hyam 3-8-10 Jimmy Quinn 122
One of the horses of the season, having come from nowhere to win his last five starts. He has conditions in his favour and could run well.
BP= 25/1
13(2) -165 Salford City 28 David Elsworth 3-8-10 Johnny Murtagh 126
Useful sort who won his first two races and then ran well in two classics whose trips were wrong. This is probably his distance and he should handle the ground.
BP= 8/1
SUMMARY
A trappy race which is difficult to predict with any certainty. Rakti is too short a price and worth opposing. There will be plenty of hard-luck stories so why not take a bit of 40/1 each-way about IMPERIAL DANCER
CODEBREAKER
formerly in Racing Post Weekender
SATURDAY, JULY 3, 2004, SANDOWN PARK, UK
3.15pm £375,000 CORAL-ECLIPSE STAKES, Group One, 1m 2f.
The main trends are:
Horses should have run between two and four times previously this season
A top three placing earlier in the season is desirable, preferably last time out
Older horses are favoured
Previous Group One winners have a good record
The Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot is a good trial
The Group One Coral-Eclipse Stakes provides the first opportunity for three-year-olds to take on their older rivals at the highest level.
Last year Luca Cumani saddled Falbrav to reverse the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes form with Nayef and the son of Fairy King ended the season with five victories at Grtoup One level.
One of the most striking trends is that every successful horse since 1987 had come to Sandown Park with between two and four runs previously under their belts that season.
In other words, no winner had landed the race after just one outing that season, on their seasonal debut or if they had been seen on a racecourse more than four times.
We are therefore immediately able to discount African Dream, who has been on the go since January and has already run six times.
The last 17 winners were all placed in the first three at least once earlier that season.
This does not bode well for Kaiteur, who has failed to trouble the judge so far this year.
The 1991 winner Environment Friend and Compton Admiral, successful eight years later, plus Falbrav were unusual victors in that they did not finish in the first three on their outing immediately prior to Sandown. Every other successful horse in the last 17 runnings managed this feat.
We can therefore exclude Chancellor, Imperial Dancer, Norse Dancer, and Salford City as they all failed to finish first, second or third last time out.
During the last 17 years othe Coral-Eclipse, older horses have generally had the upper hand, winning 11 of the 17 renewals, but this is of little relevance to us now as both of the three-year-olds in this race - African Dream and Salford City - have already been eliminated.
Unsurprisingly, given that the race is a Group One event, 12 of the last 17 winners had previously scored in Group One company.
Ikhtyar, Kalaman and Maktub have all yet to win a Group One contest and so are ruled out.
We are now left with four remaining runners - Powerscourt, Rakti, Refuse To Bend and Warrsan.
Looking at the races which previous winners ran in prior to their Sandown success, it can be seen during the last 17 years six winners had their previous outing in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot (like Rakti and Powerscourt), while one ran in the Queen Anne Stakes (as did Refuse To Bend) and one ran in the Coronation Cup (as did Warrsan).
It therefore seems prudent to concentrate on Rakti and Powerscourt as they had their last run in the race which has the best record of supplying the Eclipse winner.
The Prince of Wales’s Stakes may have the best record in supplying the Eclipse winner but only Mtoto in 1987 and 1988 actually won the Royal Ascot event. The other four winners that ran at Royal Ascot - Falbrav, Daylami, Ezzoud and Kooyonga - were all placed in the Prince of Wales’s before winning the Eclipse.
The nod must therefore go to POWERSCOURT, second to Rakti at Royal Ascot.
He also has the advantage of being trained by Aidan O’Brien, successful twice in the last four years with Giant’s Causeway (2000) and Hawk Wing (2002), whereas Rakti’s handler Michael Jarvis has yet to win this famous race.
For old articles (from 1st March 2000) go to the Newslink
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