Saturday, July 10, 2004
THE VALUE BETTING COLUMN EVERY SATURDAY
ASCOT, SATURDAY, JULY 10, 2004
2:30pm £65,000 totesport Heritage Handicap 2m 45y
Going - Good, good to soft in places.
BP = at the time of writing but for the best current odds go to www.BritOdds.com (Click on link above)
1(9) 58/8 Self Defense 14 Pat Chamings 7-10-00 Johnny Murtagh 101
Ran well in the Northumberland Plate - was seventh but has plenty of weight.
BP= 33/1
2(15) 637- Almah 343 Venetia Williams 6-9-09 Lisa Jones(3) -
Useful South African performer- difficult to weigh up.
BP= 50/1
3(8) 0771 Double Obsession 25 Mark Johnston 4-9-09v Joe Egan 109
Won the Ascot Stakes and likes Ascot but this may be more difficult.
BP= 8/1
4(10) 4226 Pagan Dance 14 Amanda Perrett 5-9-08p Frankie Dettori 107
Consistent sort who is racing well - was sixth in the Northumberland Plate.
BP= 10/1
5(14) -420 Distant Prospect 14 Andrew Balding 7-9-07 Martin Dwyer 107
Disappointed in the Northumberland Plat but usually runs well and is not out of it.
BP= 14/1
6(13) 0929 Promoter 14 Jeremy Noseda 4-9-02 Eddie Ahern 110
Ninth in the Northumberland Plate and previously second in the Ascot Stakes.
BP= 14/1
7(17) -820 Escayola 14 William Haggas 4-9-01b Michael Hills 110
11th in the Northumberland Plate and previously second at York.
BP= 12/1
8(3) 0500 Mana D’Argent 25 Mark Johnston 7-9-00 Joe Fanning 1
Well beaten in the last two races. Well beaten in his last two races 11
BP= 13/2
9(6) 1-01 Dorothy’s Friend 21 Roger Charlton 4-8-13 Steve Drowne 111
Won over just short of this trip at Newmarket this month. Lightly raced and progressive.
BP= 7/1
10(11) 4330 Sentry 25 John Gosden 4-8-13 Dane O’Neill 108
Well beaten in the Ascot Stakes but consistent beforehand and probably did not stay the
two and a half miles.
BP= 20/1
11(1) 6-00 High Action 68 (41J) Ian Williams 4-8-13t Pat Dobbs 110
Is coming down the handicap sharply on the Flat and has since raced well over hurdles, winning and coming second. The big question is whether he stays two miles on the Flat - an interesting sort who has the beating of Double Obsession on last year’s form.
BP= 50/1
12(4) -778 Random Quest 35 B J Llewellyn 6-8-12 Ryan Moore 110
Races quite consistently but not near enough to the winners so he may need to come down more in the handicap.
BP= 25/1
13(7) 9625 Kristensen 14 Don Eddy 5 8-10 Michael Kinane 107
Fifth in the Northumberland Plate - stays well and may need further.
BP= 16/1
14(5) S223 Theatre 8 Jamie Poulton 5-8-10 Paul Doe 109
Consistent sort but no real reason to back.
BP= 25/1
15(12) 4712 Sahem 21 Don Eddy 7-8-10 Richard Hughes 104
Fair sort who probably has needed this trip for a while. One to watch out for but may need faster ground.
BP= 25/1
16(2) 4031 Thewhirlingdervish 20 Tim Easterby 6-8-10 Richard Quinn 106
Consistent in lesser races but has been found wanting in better company like this.
BP= 12/1
17(16) 8121 Dr Sharp 9 Thomas Tate 4-8-08 Dale Gibson 105
Consistent sort who is in good form but this is much his toughest test.
BP= 8/1
SUMMARY
This is an open race but there are two outsiders worth keeping an eye on High Action and Sahem. They are big prices with bookmakers, even bigger with betting exchanges, and HIGH ACTION is the Value Betting Column selection as his price is unbelievable.
GOOD LUCK<
h2>
CODEBREAKER
3.50pm, Saturday, July 10, 2004
£150,000 45th John Smith’s Cup 1m 2f 88y
Main Trends
all of the last 14 winners were aged three, four or five-years-old
13 of the last 14 winners had raced between one and four times previously that season
13 of 14 were drawn low
12 of the last 14 winners carried between 7st 3lb and 9st 4lb to victory
Hopefully, the rain will stay away from York this weekend as the Knavesmire plays host to one of its biggest Saturday fixtures featuring the 45th running of the John Smith’s Cup.
All of the last 14 winners were aged three, four or five, including last year’s hero Far Lane, who proved half a length too powerful for Etesaal.
Of this year’s 22 contestants, this trend does not bode well for six-year-olds Eastern Breeze, Narrative, Bourgainville and Jabaar, seven-year-old Consonant or the old man of the field nine-year-old Ionian Spring, who are all eliminated.
Of the last 14 winners of the John Smith’s Cup, no horse had raced on more than four occasions previously that season before lining up at York, while at the opposite end of the spectrum only Pasternak in 1997 won on his seasonal debut.
Blythe Knight and Polar Jem have had more than four outings already this campaign and they are discounted together with Coat Of Honour, who will be making his seasonal bow at the Knavesmire on Saturday.
Weight in any handicap is crucial to the outcome - over the last 14 runnings of this competitive contest only two winners, Cezanne in 1994 and Vintage Premium two years ago, have managed to carry more than 9st 4lb to victory.
Top-weight Red Fort, Blue Spinnaker and Lundy’s Lane are the three remaining entries who will all shoulder more than 9st 4lb and this trio are discarded.
A good draw is another factor that connections will be hoping for - since 1990 Mr Confusion, successful in 1992 from stall 14, is the only winner not to have been drawn in stalls one to nine.
This means that Arcalis (stall 18), Zero Tolerance (20), Polygonal (22), Mutafanen (15) and first reserve Vicious Warrior (21), who comes in for non-runner Courageous Duke, are considered unlikely to enter the winner’s enclosure here.
A previous win in the same campaign seems advantageous - eight of the last 13 winners to have run earlier that term were good enough to score at least once.
None of Desert Quest, Wing Commander or Chinkara have won this year and this trio disappear from the reckoning.
Separating the two remaining entries, Promotion and Starry Lodge, is problematic as they are both looked after by trainers with shrewd reputations when it comes to handicaps - Sir Michael Stoute and Luca Cumani.
Codebreaker narrowly favours the Queen’s PROMOTION, who was the subject of a huge gamble on his last outing at Royal Ascot on June 18 and is this week’s selection.
10 of the last 14 winners had their previous outing on or after June 9 - Starry Lodge has not been seem since winning at Epsom on June 5.
For old articles (from 1st March 2000) go to the Newslink
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