Saturday, July 20, 2002
THE VALUE BETTING COLUMN EVERY SATURDAY
SATURDAY, JULY 20, 2002
NEWBURY, 4.10pm, ladbrokes.com HANDICAP, 1M
GOING: Good to firm (watered)
BP= best price offered by Ladbrokes, Coral, Tote and William Hill.
1) (10) 2300 Smirk David Elsworth 4-10-00 Kevin Darley
Classy performer, but has generally been struggling so far this season and could be too high in the weights. Even so not out of it, but would prefer some cut in the ground.
BP= 14/1 Ladbrokes, William Hill
2) (15) 0171 Calcutta Barry Hills 6-9-08 Michael Hills
Decent, if sometimes slightly quirky performer. Has won handicaps at Salisbury and York this season, both with small fields, but well behind in the Royal Hunt Cup. Stable in form but others appeal more.
BP= 10/1 Ladbrokes, William Hill
3) (1) 2/02 Forbearing Sir Mark Prescott 5-9-07 George Duffield
The Sir Mark Prescott string are in cracking form at present and this gelding had some had some pretty decent form in 2000. Last on return from absence in the Old Newton Cup a fortnight ago but ran better in a claimer at Doncaster last week. Shrewd stable should never be underestimated but this one hasn’t raced over a short a distance as a mile for a long time and questionable how much ability he retains. Opposable.
BP= 11/1 Coral
4) (6) 2122 Finished Article David Elsworth 5-9-03 Liam Keniry (5)
Has been in great form this season, winning at Goodwood and finishing second to impressive Heretic in valuable event at Sandown a fortnight ago (holds Calcutta) Has been slowly creeping up the weights but has services of a decent claimer here. A possible. He needs to come late and get a clear run.
BP= 7/1 Ladbrokes, Tote
5) (7) 0502 Muchea Mick Channon 8-8-13 Frankie Dettori
One-time very useful performer but still high in the weights and generally been struggling this season. Hard to fancy here despite second to Calcutta last time out.
BP= 14/1 Ladbrokes, Tote, William Hill
6) (5) 6296 Nashaab Ralph Beckett 5-8-13 Steve Drowne
Form is better than figures suggest. Missed the break in the Royal Hunt Cup and didn’t get a clear run behind Heretic last time out at Sandown. Will like the ground and looks reasonably weighted on the best of his form. Often gets into trouble and has not won for nearly a year. Fair value.
BP= 12/1 Tote
7) (3) 1094 Premier Baron Phil McEntee 7-8-12 B Reilly (7)
Goes well fresh and landed a decent 7f at Doncaster on seasonal reappearance. Not disgraced subsequently in the six-furlong Wokingham but has always looked something of a seven-furlong specialist. First attempt at a mile for ages.
BP= 18/1 Ladbrokes
8) (4) 5805 Dance On The Top Ed Dunlop 4-8-10 Philip Robinson
Has good bits of form that would put him in with a chance, especially on fast ground and straight miles. Must have a chance and stable is beginning to get back among the winners.
BP= 12/1 Ladbrokes, William Hill, Coral
9) (8) 3303 Laggan Minstrel Richard Hannon 4-8-09 Ryan Moore (7)
Has been consistent this season and a good run to finish third behind Heretic last time out at Sandown. An infrequent winner though (last success over a year ago) but well handicapped and goes well on the ground. It is a question whether his rider is worth his 7lb claim and I think he probably is.
BP= 12/1 Tote
10) (11) 0000 Faithful Warrior Barry Hills 4-8-09 Darryll Holland
Has had far more horses in front of him than behind him this season and despite the stable’s good recent form, he looks hard to fancy, though Pricewise in the Racing Post has recommended him.
BP=25/1 Tote, William Hill, Coral
11) (2) 2120 Naviasky Con Dore 7-8-09 Jimmy Fortune
Would have a chance on his win at Kempton and second at Goodwood earlier this season and had no chance in Listed contest at Ascot last week. Slightly quirky character and is another who looks best at seven furlongs.
BP= 12/1 Ladbrokes, Tote, Coral
12) (13) 0245 Tony Tie Jim Goldie 6-8-08 Kieren Fallon
Rarely runs a bad race although not a great winner overall. Ran well in John Smith’s Cup at York last week and will probably appreciate this drop back in trip. Does seem to prefer a bit more cut in the ground these days. No value.
BP= 7/1 Ladbrokes, Tote, William Hill
13) (12) 7490 Kilkenny Castle Simon Dow 6-8-08 Eddie Ahern
One over ten furlongs twice earlier this year. Well behind on last two starts and doesn’t look as if a drop back in trip is really what he needs.
BP= 16/1 Tote
14) (14) 6500 Takes Tutu Mark Johnston 3-8-00 Keith Dalgleish
Landed a conditions event on all-weather at Lingfield during the winter and decent event at the Newmarket Guineas meeting. Doesn’t look the easiest of rides at times but has a chance of his best form but is a horse without a best trip.
BP= 11/1 Tote
15) (9) 1725 Dennis Our Menace Simon Dow 4-7-13 Chris Catlin
Has been consistently running well this season and looks a genuine performer. Will go on the ground and although this is step up in class, he has some chance off of his light weight. Runs best at Salisbury.
BP= 14/1 Coral
This is an open mile handicap and Finished Article has an obvious chance and is not a bad price but the real value lies with LAGGAN MINSTREL who is worth backing each way as he is well handicapped.
For old articles (from 1st March 2000) go to the Newslink