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Saturday, June 9, 2007
VALUE BETTING COLUMN every Saturday 2.35pm Haydock Park, Saturday, June 9, 2007 2.35pm JOHN WILLIES HANDICAP £22,500 added (Class 2), 2m 45y GOING: GOOD TO FIRM for the best odds go to www.BritOdds.com BP= the best price at the time of writing 1)(3) /040-0 KASTHARI James Bethell 8-9-08 Darryll Holland Dead-heated for the Group Two Doncaster Cup three seasons back but is not the force of old and struggled over fences last winter. Poor show last time out at York and has since moved stables. Fast ground and a marked drop in grade are plus points. BP= 25/1 2)(2) 2250-0 RIVER ALHAARTH Peter Chapple-Hyam 5-8-12 Robert Havlin Consistent last summer and went close in a couple of major staying handicaps. Not disgraced when staying on eighth of 20 over shorter trip on seasonal bow. Yard in form and must hold excellent claims. BP= 15/8 3)(1) 0003-0 WINGED D’ARGENT Bernard Llewellyn 6-8-12 Micky Fenton Smart stayer at his best for Mark Johnston but form regressed during second half of last season. Eased when soundly beaten in Chester Cup on first start for new stable last time. Has dropped 3lb in ratings but looks like he will need to come down even more. Overlooked. BP= 16/1 4)(9) (1)(1)(1)-(0)(6) MELPOMENE Mark Johnston 4-8-08 Kevin Darley Progressive when scoring a hat-trick on the All-weather during the winter but lost his way on his last two outings. Not run since February and has yet to try two miles Has something to prove but this stable could overcome both factors. BP= 11/1 5)(6) 02(6)0-0 COLLOQUIAL Henry Candy 6-8-08v Fergus Sweeney Lightly-raced gelding who ran a sound race when touched off by Bulwark in this contest last year. Has failed to reproduce that in three subsequent starts but cannot be totally dismissed. Has dropped 3lb in the handicap ratings. BP= 10/1 6)(10) 3(5)1-40 ESCAYOLA Grant Tuer 7-8-07b Jamie Spencer Proven fast ground performer who was in good heart over hurdles last season and on the Flat last year Can be forgiven a below-par effort on soft ground last time and the jockey booking catches the eye. 3lb better off with River Alhaarth for four and hal;f lengths in the Northumberland Plate. Fair chance. BP= 13/2 7)(4) (2)02-00 THE NAWAB Barry Potts IRE 5-8-05t Paul Fessey Useful handicapper for John Dunlop in the past but has shown nothing in two starts this term since moving to Ireland. Others preferred. BP= 8/1 8)(8) (1)(2)(1)(1)-0 DESERT SEA David Arbuthnot 4-8-03 Franny Norton Improved markedly when stepped up in trip and switched to Polytrack last season, winning three times from a mile and a half to two miles. Soft ground probably didn’t suit last time when he led until weakening at Ascot and he could progress further on this sound surface. Down 1lb in the ratings. BP= 7/1 9)(7) 0/000- MR ED Peter Bowen 9-8-03p Jimmy Quinn Exposed but consistent performer over fences and was in good heart this spring. Well beaten in three Flat outings in 2006 but has been given a bit of lea-way by the handicapper. Still faces a stiff task from 5lb out of the handicap. BP= 16/1 10)(5) (1)(1)(4)-(2)(0) BILLICH Eoghan O’Neill 4-8-02 Chris Catlin Showed himself to be a decent sort on the Polytrack at Wolverhampton during the winter before disappointing on his last start in March. Has been freshened up for a return to Turf but has never won off a mark this high. 1lb out of the handicap BP= 10/1 SUMMARY The value lies with favourite RIVER ALHAARTH whose second to Toldo in the Northumberland Plate and close fifth in the John Smith’s Cup last season reads very well when there are doubts about all the others.
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