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Saturday, June 25, 2005


THE VALUE BETTING COLUMN EVERY SATURDAY




NEWCASTLE, SATURDAY, JUNE 25
2:10pm, £50,000 John Smith's "Extra Cold" Chipchase Stakes Group 3, 6f



GOING: GOOD

for the best odds from British bookmakers and betting exchanges, go to britodds.com
BP= best price at the time of writing

1) (5) 510- Pivotal Point Peter Makin 5-9-08 Seb Sanders
Made tremendous progress last year, taking the Stewards’ Cup before going on to glory in a Group Three at Longchamp and the Group Two Diadem Stakes at Ascot. Needed a couple of runs to get going last year and has to give weight away all round. BP= 14/1

2) (2)109- Bahamian Pirate David Nicholls 10-9-02 Robert Winston
As good as ever last season despite his advancing years, with a career best effort to take the Group One Nunthorpe Stakes at York. Would appreciate any rain and will probably need this run in any case. Best on soft ground and over five furlongs. BP= 22/1

3(7) 1143 Corridor Creeper Milton Bradley 8-9-02p Joe Fanning
Tough handicapper who is in excellent shape this year - better than ever - and though he usually runs at five furlongs, he is effective at six. Has a chance on some lines of form and is a very big price in a field where there are a lot of queries. BP= 22/1

4) (9) -008 Fayr Jag Tim Easterby 6-9-02 Willie Supple
Twice a winner at Royal Ascot, taking the Wokingham in 2003 and the Golden Jubilee Stakes last season. Below that form since, although showed signs of a return to form at York last time over five furlongs and has chances back over his best distance. BP=20/1

5) (8) -672 Patavellian Roger Charlton 79-02b Steve Drowne
Winless since taking the Prix de l’Abbaye in 2003, although often runs a good race and again cannot be dismissed. BP= 15/2

6) (6) 1459 Quito David Chapman 8-9-02b Tony Culhane
Tough as teak performer and twice a winner at York and Newmarket this season. Ran better than finishing position suggests at York last week and should be thereabouts once again, particularly with some overnight rainand this stiff course. BP= 8/1

7) (1) 21-1 Soldier’s Tale Jeremy Noseda 4-9-02 Kevin Darley
The least exposed member of the field and from a yard in cracking form. Needs to step up on his latest win in a York handicap but could well do so. Needs a bit of cut to be seen at his best. On a line through Fire Up The Band, he has to improve a bit so do not take a short price. BP= 5/2

8) (11) 0-22 Steenberg Mark Tompkins 6-9-02 Alan Munro
Decent sprinter on his favoured soft surface and yard is in good form. Has a chance at his best. BP= 9/1

9) (12) 1431 Indian Maiden Malcolm Saunders 5-8-13 John Egan
Small yard does well with its sprinters and looks to have another good one on its hands with this mare who has improved sharply in 2005. Twice a Listed winner this season but they were relatively weak affairs and she would need to step up on that form. BP= 9/1

10) (10) 3022 Beckermet Roger Fisher 3-8-09 Royston Ffrench
Has run two great races for the past two Saturdays, finishing second in a valuable three-year-old handicap at Redcar two weeks ago and runner-up to Iffraaj in the Wokingham last week. Tough sort, but worth taking on in this race following his recent exploits.

BP= 17/2

11) (3) 2470 Obe Gold Mick Channon 3-8-09v Sam Hitchcott
Fair juvenile and some useful form earlier this season but hard to fancy on overall record. BP= 40/1

12) (4) -770 Tournedos John Akehurst 3-8-09 Dean McKeown
Has finished nearer last than first on all three starts this season and hard to see why that should be any different this time round. BP= 125/1


SUMMARY
A fascinating race, with some progressive types taking on some good older sorts. Don’t get involved too heavily but a small each-way investment on Corridor Creeper could pay dividends.



THE JOHN SMITH’S NORTHUMBERLAND PLATE CODEBREAKER

3.15pm NEWCASTLE, SATURDAY, JUNE 25, 2005



The main trends are:

16 of the last 18 winners raced between one and four times earlier in the campaign

16 of the last 18 winners were placed in the first three at least once earlier in the season

15 of the last 18 winners were returned at odds of 12/1 or less

15 of the last 18 winners were drawn in stall nine or lower


With Royal Ascot at York taking the racing headlines last week, attention switches this weekend to Newcastle, which features the £180,000 John Smith’s Northumberland Plate, known as the Pitmen’s Derby.


16 of the last 18 winners of this very valuable two-mile handicap had raced between one and four times earlier in the campaign. The two exceptions were 1999 hero Far Cry, who had previously raced on five occasions that term, and 2003 winner Unleash, who despite having been busy over hurdles including three successes on his last three outings, was making his seasonal bow on the level.


Of this year’s 20 contestants, Sendintank, Total Turtle and Star Member have yet to see a racecourse this season and this trio are immediately eliminated. Joining them is Cold Turkey, who has raced eight times already in 2005 and is considered over-raced.


Over the last 18 runnings of this prestigious event, the 1994 winner Quick Ransom and Unleash were the only victorious horses not to have been placed in the first three at least once earlier in the campaign. The best that the former could previously muster was a fifth, admittedly in a Grade One event at Santa Anita in the United States, while Unleash had not run (see above).


None of Tungsten Strike, Mirjan, Gold Ring, Pagan Dance, Balyan and Tees Components have been good enough to finish in the top three this season and this sextet disappear from the reckoning.


The two miles of the Northumberland Plate seems to have favoured lower weighted horses since 1987 - during this period 13 of the 18 winners carried 8st 11lb or less.


Balkan Knight, Far Pavilions, Astrocharm and top-weight Lochbuie all have to carry 8st 12lb or more here and they are discounted.


12 of the last 18 winners were aged between three and five including seven of the last 10 victorious horses.


Sergeant Cecil and Contact Dancer are both aged six and while they each probably have further races in them, it is unlikely to be this weekend.


15 of the last 18 winners were returned at odds of 12-1 or less. The three anomalies were last year’s winner Mirjan, who went off at a massive 33/1,1994 hero Quick Ransom, sent off at 25/1, and seven seasons earlier Treasure Hunter, who was returned at 20/1.


High Action is a 20/1 shot with totesport and is considered an unlikely winner here.


Many punters believe that the draw is irrelevant in a race over two miles. They are entitled to their opinion but Codebreaker disagrees for certain races.

The evidence would appear to support this column as 15 of the last 18 winners were drawn in stall nine or lower including six of the last seven successful horses.


This rules out Odiham and Coconut Beach, drawn in stalls 12 and 15, and leaves SWIFT SAILOR, who will emerge from stall two, as this week’s Codebreaker selection.


Confidence behind the selection is boosted by the fact that Cyrian came out of the very same stall when successful in 1998 and Swift Sailor is trained by Mark Johnston, who was responsible for Quick Ransom entering the winner’s enclosure four years earlier.

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