Sunday, June 29, 2003
THE VALUE BETTING COLUMN - WHICH APPEARS EVERY SATURDAY ON THIS SITE EXCLUSIVELY - HAD ANOTHER GOOD DAY YESTERDAY RECOMMENDING OUTSIDER RED WINE at 40/1 (SP 33/1) each-way for the John Smith’s Northumberland Plate and he ran well to be 4th of the 20 runners.
COMPLETE LIST OF SELECTIONS SINCE THE START OF 2003
type of race h = handicap s=stakes
Horse / position / runners / SP /odds avaialable at/ advice / date
+19.5 points to a level stake win at SP, +15.17 points to level stake each-way at SP
RED WINE 4th of 20h 33/1 40/1 advised each-way June 28
BOLLIN ERIC 2nd of 9s 4/1 5/1 advised each-way June 21
TEDSTALE 2nd of 13h 8/1 7/1 advised each-way June 14
ALAMSHAR 3rd of 20s 4/1 5/1 advised each-way June 7
TASS HEAL 7th of 8h 4/1 11/2 advised each-way May 31
TOUT SEUL 3rd of 16/1s 5/1 9/2 advised each-way May 24
SHUSH 7th of 15 25/1 25/1 advised each-way May 17
ROYAL STORM 1st of 7h 5/1 11/2 May 10
SONGLARK 10th of 20s 14/1 16/1 advised each-way May 3
MONTIFAULT pu of 16h 8/1 10/1 April 26
NO VALUE BETTING COLUMN April 19 (no suitable betting opportunities)
NO VALUE BETTING COLUMN April 12 (no suitable betting opportunities)
TORDUFF EXPRESS ur of 40h 33/1 50/1 advised each-way April 5
GRANDERA 4th of 11s 5/1 11/2 advised each-way March 29
FRAGRANT ROSE 6th of 16h 12/1 11/1 advised each-way March 22
GOLDEN BRIEF 4th of 14h 14/1 14/1 advised each-way March 15
TE QUIERO 1st of 13h 16/1 14/1 advised each-way March 8
TOM’S PRIZE 1st of 9h 5/1 5/1 advised each-way March 1
MONTREAL 5th of 14h 7/1 8/1 February 22
No selection/column February 15 (weather affected racing programme)
CHIVES 2nd of 6h 3/1 5/2 February 8
GALLANT BOY 1st of 13h 7/1 7/1 advised each-way February 1
BE MY MANAGER 12th of 15h 20/1 25/1 advised each-way January 25
TRUCKER’S TAVERN 1st of 9h 9/2 5/1 advised each-way January 18
WAGES 10th of 14h 10/1 12/1 advised each-way January 11
HERODOTUS 5th of 16h 10/118/1 advised each-way January 4
SEE BELOW FOR YESTERDAY’S VALUE BETTING COLUMN
THE VALUE BETTING COLUMN EVERY SATURDAY
NEWCASTLE , SATURDAY JUNE 28, 2003
BP= best price from Coral Eurobet, Ladbrokes, Tote, Stanleybet, Bet365 and William Hill
GOING - Good, good to soft in places after 23 millimetres of rain overnight
2:50pm, £175,000 John Smith's Northumberland Plate Showcase Handicap , (Class B) (3yo+), 2m
1) (3) 3913 Barathea Blazer Peter Harris 4-9-10 Richard Quinn
Landed a Listed race over 15 furlongs at Chantilly in France on penultimate start but doesn’t really look up to landing this highly competitive handicap off top-weight.
BP = 18/1 Ladbrokes, Tote, Bet365 and William Hill
2) (16) 141- Supremacy Sir Michael Stoute 4-9-10 Kieren Fallon
Winner of a 13-furlong Listed handicap at Chester last season. Yet to race this year but looks open to considerable improvement. Handicapper has taken no chances with him however and has yet to run in a race as competitive or as far as this.
BP = 9/1 Coral Eurobet
3) (17)- 152 Bourgeois Tim Easterby 6-9-08 Kevin Darley
Unlucky fifth on penultimate start in Chester Cup (4lb better off for two and a half lengths with the winner Hugs Dancer) before running well when second over insufficient 12 furlongs in a Listed handicap at Hamilton last time. Good chance but vulnerable to less exposed types.
BP = 11/1 Coral Eurobet & Ladbrokes
4) (18) 5-18 Hugs Dancer James Given 6-9-04 Dean McKeown
Grand sort who landed the Ebor at York last year and the Chester Cup this year. Not disgraced in Henry II Stakes last time and will have plenty of supporters. However, continues to rise up the handicap. The softer ground may be a problem.
BP = 12/1 Labrokes
5) (9) 0-42 Big Moment Amanda Perrett 5-9-02 Pat Eddery
Did not enjoy the best of runs when second to Hugs Dancer in the Chester Cup last time. Good chance of gaining his revenge on that rival (2lb better off) here but price looks rather skinny on his overall record.
BP = 13/2 Stanleybet & Bet365
6) (14) 7/12 Landing Light Nicky Henderson 8-9-01 Darryll Holland
High-class hurdler at best and won competitive handicap on Flat at York in May. Ran well when second in the 20-furlong Ascot Stakes at Royal Ascot and should be more at home over today’s shorter trip.
BP = 9/1 Ladbrokes
7) (8)-539 Red Wine Jamie Osborne 4-9-00 Graham Gibbons
Good form last season when winning November Handicap at Doncaster and won over hurdles during the winter. Ran better than finishing position suggests last time out and could well be suited by this step up in trip. Closely linked into Bourgeois and therefore excellent value.
BP = 40/1 Ladbrokes
8) (15) 44-7 Distant Prospect Andrew Balding 6-8-13 Martin Dwyer
Consistent performer in this kind of race (5th in this race last year) but ran poorly on seasonal reappearance and has questions to answer.
BP = 23/1 Coral Eurobet
9) (1) 275- Unleash Philip Hobbs 4-8-11 Jamie Spencer
Has ratted up three victories over hurdles lately and is clearly in good heart. Fair performer on Flat last season for Sir Mark Prescott and current trainer’s runners on the Flat are generally to be much respected. Interesting, but not great value.
BP = 8/1 except Tote
10) (11) 0-04 Riyadh James Fanshawe 5-8-10 Oscar Urbina
Won the Ascot Stakes last season when with Martin Pipe but generally disappointing afterwards. Showed signs of a return to form last time at Goodwood and current trainer often does well in this kind of race but this price is no value.
BP = 14/1 except Bet365 and William Hill
11) (19) -232 Mamcazma Dave Morris 5-8-10 Neil Callan
Generally consistent performer but has not always looked as if he truly stays this trip though this is open to debate and he looks quite well treated.
BP = 18/1 Coral Eurobet
12) (7) 7-02 Zibeline Rod Millman 6-8-09p Robert Winston
Fast-finishing third in this race last year and shaped well at Epsom last time out. However, overall win record isn’t the best - just two successes - and likely to find one or two or more too good again.
BP = 14/1 except Ladbrokes
13) (4 )2145 Prairie Falcon Barry Hills 9-8-08 Richard Hills
Veteran performer who has been in good heart this year but it is doubtful whether a race as hot as this is ideal for him these days.
BP = 33/1 Bet365 & William Hill
14) (2) 15-7 Sentinel Gerard Butler 4-8-07t Eddie Ahern
Progressive performer last season and shaped well enough on his seasonal reappearance at Epsom earlier this month. But has yet to tackle a trip this far and a lot is taken on trust.
BP = 12/1 William Hill
15) 6)- 942 Rahwaan Chris Fairhurst 4-8-07 Fergal Lynch
Ran well fourth at 50/1 in Chester Cup on penultimate start before going down to veteran Bay Of Islands at Haydock last time. Should run his race off this higher mark but others appeal more.
BP = 33/1 Bet365 & William Hill
16) (12) -511 Sun Bird Dick Allan 5-8-07 Tony Culhane
Will have no problem with the trip and comes into the race on back of wins at Musselburgh and Ayr. Landed competitive Old Newton Cup at Haydock last season and did well over hurdle this last season. The ground has gone against him.
BP = 28/1 Coral Eurobet & William Hill
17) (10) 6966 Mana D’Argent Mark Johnston 6-8-04 Joe Fanning
Stays very well and was coming home well when sixth in Ascot Stakes last time. Drop back in trip not sure to suit. Runs best at Ascot and not the most consistent of performers.
BP = 28/1 William Hill
18) (5) 4644 Timing Tim Easterby 4-8-02 e/s1 Dale Gibson
Ran well when sixth behind Landing Light at York but a little disappointing on latest two starts and is rather one-paced.
BP = 25/1 Ladbrokes, Tote & Bet365
19) (13) 60-7 Don Fernando Martin Pipe 4-8-01 John Egan
The ante-post gamble of the race. Decent juvenile hurdler over the winter who ran well on return to the Flat in the Ascot Stakes. Trainer does very well in this kind or race and so must be respected but odds are very short.
BP = 8/1 except Tote & Stanleybet
20) (20) 3133 Sahem Don Eddy 6-8-01 Paul Hanagan
Represents small but shrewd yard. Former bumper winner, who has been looking as if a step back up in trip would suit him. Has a tough task but not totally out of it.
BP = 66/1 Coral Eurobet & William Hill
SUMMARY
This is a typically competitive Northumberland Plate. A lot of those at shortish prices have question marks against them and it is best to side with a real outsider. The value is with RED WINE each way.
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