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Saturday, May 19, 2007


THE VALUE BETTING COLUMN EVERY SATURDAY

NEWMARKET, SATURDAY, MAY 19, 2007

3:00pm £20,000 32Red.com 3-Y-O Handicap, 1m 4f

GOING: GOOD



for the best odds go to www.BritOdds.com
BP= the best price at the time of writing



1) 0118- PHILANTHROPY Mark Johnston 3-9-04 Greg Fairley (3)
Improved with step up in trip last season, landing nine-furlong Goodwood maiden and following up over 10 furlongs at Leicester, before disappointing behind a stablemate in Listed Zetland Stakes at Newmarket. Has to concede weight to some unexposed rivals and needs to resume in peak form to hold real chance. BP= 7/1

2) 35116 SIX DAY WAR Jamie Osborne 3-8-13 Jim Crowley
Started off his career on the all-weather, scoring twice at Southwell, over a mile and 12 furlongs, but did not show the same level of form switched to turf last time, finishing a well-beaten sixth of seven behind Swiss Act at Chester earlier this month. Likely this more conventional course will see him in a better light, but plenty still to prove. BP= 12/1

3) 234-2 YOSSI Mark Tompkins 3-8-13 Jimmy Quinn
Three solid runs as a juvenile behind some useful performers and looked to have gone the right way on comeback this term, when chasing home Spice Route at Haydock in April. His conqueror that day has since taken a York handicap under top weight and he looks to have an excellent chance of breaking his duck. Trainer in form. But no value for a maiden. BP= 5/2

4) 037-31 EL DECECY John Dunlop 3-8-11 Ian Mongan
Not sure exactly what he achieved when getting off the mark in decisive fashion in 10-furlong Pontefract maiden on May 2, with the runner-up having been tailed off the time before. Step up in distance should suit, but does not look particularly well handicapped and others are preferred. BP= 13/2

5) 7-21 VERACITY Michael Jarvis 3-8-11 Philip Robinson
Signs of promise on sole juvenile outing and improved for reappearance second when landing the odds - despite cocking his jaw and running very wide on bend - in Polytrack maiden at Wolverhampton over this trip last month. That was a very weak affair, however, and although he has scope for improvement, he also looks to have his fare share of temperament. BP= 9/2

6) 33-621 SPIDERBACK Richard Hannon 3-8-11b Jimmy Fortune
Plenty of experience and got his head in front for the first time on Kempton’s Polytrack earlier this month, taking weak 12-furlong maiden by five lengths. Trip and ground no problem but is up against a better class of opponent now and it will be surprising if something doesn’t improve past him. BP= 10/1

7) 728-04 ASK THE BUTLER Tony Carroll 3-8-09 Darryll Holland
Showed ability last year in three runs in Ireland for Declan Gillespie and benefited for first run in this country when fourth in 10-furlong handicap at Salisbury on May 6, a decent effort under joint top weight. Extra two furlongs sure to suit (plenty of stamina on dam’s side) and could be in the shake-up. BP= 20/1

8) 0-7331 STRINGSOFMYHEART William Haggas 3-8-04p Royston Ffrench
Quietly progressive filly and showed battling qualities to score narrowly last time at Pontefract over this trip, fighting back when headed inside the distance. Sure to run her race and beat a stable companion of Yossi.last time. Stays well. BP= 5/1


SUMMARY

An interesting handicap. The bottom weight Stringsofmyheart has solid form, stays well and is good value each-way.



GOOD LUCK




CODEBREAKER

NEWBURY, SATURDAY, MAY 19, 2007

2.45pm - £200,000 JUDDMONTE LOCKINGE STAKES (Group One), 1m str




Trends:

Since 1986, 19 of the 21 Lockinge winners have been aged either four or five, with 14 to four in favour of the younger age group.


Only two fillies have won in the last 21 runnings

Only two of the last 21 winners have had a starting price of above 9/1 yet favourites have a relatively poor record with only five successful

The Lockinge was granted Group One status in 1995 and since then 10 of the 12 winners had previously been successful in a Group One or Two race.


17 of the last 21 victorious horses were either winning on their seasonal debut or their second outing of the campaign.



The Juddmonte Lockinge Stakes, run at Newbury over the straight mile course, is the first Group One race of the season in Britain for older horses, and was won in game fashion by the Cheveley Park Stud-owned filly Peeress 12 months ago. She is bidding to become the first back-to back winner of the race since Soviet Line in 1995 and 1996.

Codebreaker will now examine the trends for this year's renewal to pinpoint the likely winner from the eight declared runners.


Age seems to be a very important factor with 19 of the last 21 winners being aged four or five - the only horses older than this to score were the six-year-olds Soviet Line in 1996 and Rakti in 2005.


Peeress, like Soviet Line, is trained by Sir Michael Stoute, but the fact that she is a six-year-old and is attempting to become only the second dual winner of the race since 1986 means that she is discarded from calculations.


Peeress is also a filly and her victory last year was only the second for her sex in the past 21 renewals, with the only other filly to score being the Stoute-trained Russian Rhythm, also owned by Cheveley Park Stud, who was successful in 2004.


This gender bias also rules out the Michael Bell-trained Group One winner Red Evie and last year’s 1,000 Guineas heroine Speciosa.


Only five market leaders have succeeded in the last 21 runnings - another negative for the chances of the favourite Peeress - while in the same period, only two winners were priced bigger than 9/1.


Secret World is a 25/1 shot at the time of writing, while the French raider Passager is a 14/1 chance and the Aidan O’Brien-trained Marcus Andronicus, runner-up in the French 2,000 Guineas last season, is priced at 11/1.


This leaves the Sir Micheal Stoute-trained Jeremy and the former Italian-trained Ramonti, who is now a member of the Maktoum family’s Godolphin operation.


Horses must come into the Lockinge relatively fresh as 17 of the last 21 winners were scoring either on their seasonal debut or on their second outing of the campaign. Jeremy won his only start this term while Ramonti will be making his seasonal bow in the Lockinge, so both fit that criteria

Since the Lockinge was upgraded to Group One status in 1995, it has been shown that winning form in Pattern race company is important with 10 of the 12 victors since then having already won in Group One or Group Two company.

Jeremy’s recent success came in the Group Two Betfred Mile, while Ramonti has won twice at that level and also secured the Group One Premio Vittorio di Capua over a mile at San Siro in October.


The pair are hard to split so Codebreaker will turn once more to age. Of the 19 winners aged four or five to have won the Lockinge, the count stands at 14 to four in favour of four-year-olds.


As Ramonti is a five-year-old, the Codebreaker selection this week is JEREMY who can give Sir Michael Stoute his eighth victory in the Juddmonte Lockinge since 1986.


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