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Saturday, May 20, 2006


THE VALUE BETTING COLUMN EVERY SATURDAY




Newbury, Saturday, May 20, 2006



Going - Soft

for the best odds go to www.BritOdds.com
BP= the best price at the time of writing

3.55pm £20,000 added paddypower.com HANDICAP, 1m 4f


1) (10) 215265- GLISTENING Luca Cumani 4-9-04 NON RUNNER

2) (6) (1)(1)1(2)(3)4 YOUNG MICK George Margarson 4-8-13 NON RUNNER

3) (9) 05461-5 SOLENT Richard Hannon 4-8-13 Dane O’Neill
Failed to progress after winning a mile Doncaster maiden first time out last season, but managed to score off 89 over 12 furlongs on good to firm going at Windsor in August. Looks high enough in the handicap judging by his fifth in a 10-furlong handicap back at the Berkshire course last time. Ground could be a worry. BP= 6/1

4) (1) 245321- CASTLE HOWARD Willie Musson 4-8-12 Tom Queally
Broke his maiden over three furlongs further on his final start for Andre Fabre last term. Previously finished a length fifth of 20 behind the useful Highest Lover in a one mile, three furlong Longchamp handicap in June. Relatively unknown quantity as this is his first British start. BP= 12/1

5) (3) 02(2)-(3)(4)2 NAWAMEES Gary Moore 8-8-12p NON RUNNER

6) (7) 200-(2)67 DANEHILL WILLY Neville Callaghan 4-8-11p Chris Catlin
Finished five-lengths behind Nawamees when seventh at Newmarket last time and has a 5lb pull with that rival. Won twice last term off a mark of 80 at Newmarket’s July Course and Epsom, both times over 10 furlongs. Not without a chance. BP= 7/2

7) (2) (4)8210-6 CRUISE DIRECTOR Ian Williams 6-8-11 Kieren Fallon
Won a 12-furlong York handicap on soft ground in May last year but was unable to follow up in the same race off a six pound higher mark on Wednesday. Same jockey rides again here and has to be respected. BP= 3/1

8) (5) 142526- CHOCOLATE CARAMEL Amanda Perrett 4-8-07 Mick Kinane
Appeared not to stay two miles when beaten favourite on his final start last term. Previously landed a 10-furlong handicap at Leicester. Good effort when second to Diamond Circle in a soft ground Newmarket handicap over a mile and three quarters on his penultimate start. BP= 2/1

9) (4) 32301-3 MUSTAJED Rod Millman 5-8-07 NON RUNNER

10) (8) (0)(1)(5)(1)(0)(3) LLAMADAS Craig Roberts 4-8-04 Luke Morris (7)
Has won on all four all-weather tracks from seven furlongs to two miles but it is off-putting that he is yet to score on turf. Not without claims if reproducing his all-weather form. BP= 16/1

SUMMARY
Now decimated by non-runners, It could pay to follow Kieren Fallon’s lead and keep the faith with CRUISE DIRECTOR who was not disgraced in a competitive handicap at York three days ago.


CODEBREAKER

NEWBURY, SATURDAY, MAY 20, 2006

2.45pm - £200,000 JUDDMONTE LOCKINGE STAKES (Group One), 1m str



Trends:

Since 1986 18 of the 20 Lockinge winners have been aged either four or five, with 14 to four in favour of the younger age group.


Russian Rhythm is the only filly to have won in the last 20 runnings

Only two of the last 20 winners have had a starting price of above 9/1 yet favourites have a relatively poor record with only five successful

The Lockinge was granted Group One status in 1995 and since then nine of the 11 winners had previously been successful in a Group One or Two race.


16 of the last 20 victorious horses were either winning on their seasonal debut or their second outing of the campaign.



The Juddmonte Lockinge Stakes, run at Newbury over the straight mile course, is the first Group One race of the season in Britain for older horses, and was won in impressive style last season by Rakti, who stormed to a five-length success over Mac Love.

Codebreaker will now examine the trends for this year's renewal to pinpoint the likely winner from the 10 declared runners.


Age seems to be a very important factor with 18 of the last 20 winners being aged four or five - the only horses older than this to score were the six-year-olds Soviet Line in 1996 and Rakti last year.


On this basis, we can discount the seven-year-old Common World, as well as the six-year-olds Soviet Song, Court Masterpiece and New Seeker.

Only four market leaders have proved successful in the same period - another negative for the chances of five-time Group One winner Soviet Song.


The only filly to have been successful in the past 20 renewals was Russian Rhythm in 2004 - with Soviet Song already overlooked, it is here that we also lose Peeress.

It would appear that horses must come into the Lockinge relatively fresh as 16 of the last 20 winners were scoring either on their seasonal debut or on their second outing of the season.

Kandidate has already had seven runs this year and is discarded.


Since the Lockinge was upgraded to Group One status in 1995, it has been shown that winning form in Pattern race company is important with nine of the 11 victors since then having already won in Group One or Group Two company.

Majors Cast, Mac Love and Rocamadour have yet to achieve this feat - indeed only Mac Love has scored in Group Three class before - and are therefore eliminated from calculations.


This leaves the four-year-old ROB ROY as this week's Codebreaker selection, who comes into the race on the back of a Group Two win over a mile at Sandown last month, his sole start this season.

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