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Saturday, May 13, 2006


THE VALUE BETTING COLUMN EVERY SATURDAY




Beverley, Saturday, May 13, 2006



Going - Good after five millimetres of rain overnight

for the best odds go to www.BritOdds.com
BP= the best price at the time of writing

2.15pm £7,000 added C.G.I. Stayers Handicap 2m 35y


1) (7) 231100 Isa'af (IRE) Peter Hiatt 7-9-12 Liam Treadwell (5)
Well beaten on his last two starts over this sort of trip following success at Pontefract in a 12-furlong apprentice handicap on heavy ground in April and on the all-weather at Southwell over this trip. Better at short of this two-mile trip on turf. Consistent sort generally who is racing off his highest ever mark.

BP=9/1

2) (1) 0-70166 John Forbes Brian Ellison 4-9-09 Pat Cosgrave
Front runner who won heavy ground at Musselburgh at the end of March over this distance. Twice beaten at shorter trips on faster ground since. Still racing off a 6lb higher mark than for his victory in March.

BP=7/1

3) (3) 470-081 Prairie Sun (GER) (ex6) Ann Duffield 5-9-06 (6lbx) Greg Fairley (5)
Successful in a similar handicap last time out at Catterick on good to firm going. The ground may not be quite as fast but she is best at two miles, Has a chance again but is another racing off their highest ever rating. Worth opposing at this price.

BP=5/4

4) (5) 0993-88 Scarrabus (IRE) Andy Crook 5-8-07 Slade O'Hara (7)
Another who likes fast ground. He has been racing over shorter trips on the Flat and could improve on his never nearer eighths in two starts over 12 furlongs this season. A maiden on the Flat, he has won a chase on fast ground. He is 4lb out of the handicap
BP=25/1

5) (2) 26/9007 Delta Force Paul Blockley 7-8-07 Kevin Ghunowa (7)
Another who appreciates fast going. Four runs since a year and a half off - three on the all-weather and seventh last time out over 14 furlongs on turf. 16lb out of the handicap and has it to do.

BP=20/1

6) (6) 4376-71 Whoopsie Stewart Parr 4-8-04 Dean McKeown
Made all at Musselburgh over 14 furlongs with Delta Force back in seventh. Consistent sort who is 2lb out of the handicap but has done well in his races and has more scope than most of these. He is a thorough stayer and will appreciate this trip.

BP=11/4

7) (4) 3038-45 Arch Folly Johnny Portman 4-8-04 Graham Gibbons
Two fair runs on the all-weather but looks like he is better on turf. Comes from behind and may be suited by the front runners here. However, he is still a maiden and is 3lb out of the handicap.

BP=9/1

SUMMARY
A fascinating handicap. It is worth opposing the favourite with WHOOPSIE who is in good form and good value while a saver on Scarrabas is worthwhile.






CODEBREAKER - formerly in the Racing Post Weekender

Lingfield, Saturday, May 13, 2006

2.40pm £60,000 totesport.com Derby Trial Stakes (Group 3), 1m 3f 106yds




Past Trends:

only one maiden has won in the last 17 runnings

all of the last 17 winners finished in the first three on their previous start - seven of the last eight winners won on that start

15 of the last 17 winners had run once earlier that season

11 of the last 17 winners had previously won over 10 furlongs



To find the winner of this year’s £60,000 totesport.com Derby Trial at Lingfield, Codebreaker will look at the main trends from previous renewals.

Kong’s victory last year was the first for a maiden in 17 runnings. All five runners in this year’s field have won previously, so that statistic does not help Codebreaker.


All of the last 17 winners came at least third on their previous start. French raider Linda’s Lad finished fourth on his comeback run at Longchamp last month, and is therefore the first to be eliminated.


15 of the last 17 winners had run once earlier in the season. Only Bandari in 2002 and Bob’s Return in 1993 have succeeded on their return to action in the latest 17 Lingfield Derby Trials.


Botteen is making his seasonal debut in the contest and is therefore bypassed as the stats are against him.

Before You Go, who has already had three runs this term, and Baan, twice-raced this season, also fall by the wayside.


Also, 11 of the last 17 winners had previously won over at least 10 furlongs - another negative for the chances of Botteen and Baan, both yet to win beyond a mile.


This leaves us with HAZEYMM as the selection. The Marju colt landed a 10-furlong conditions event on his comeback at Newbury last month, and has the profile of a Derby Trial Stakes winner.


For old articles (from 1st March 2000) go to the Newslink Archive


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