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Saturday, May 7, 2005



THE VALUE BETTING COLUMN EVERY SATURDAY


For the latest best odds, go to www.britodds.com

BP= the best price available at the time of writing

HAYDOCK, SATURDAY, MAY 7, 2005

Going: Soft

2:20pm £28,000 stanleybet.com Spring Trophy Stakes (Listed Race) 7f 30yds


1) (drawn3) 19-8 Polar Ben James Fanshawe 6-9-10 Johnny Murtagh
A close second in this race for the last two years - seems to like Haydock and is worth siding with as stable in form. BP=11/4

2) (1) 9851 Quito David Chapman 8-9-07bl Tony Culhane
Seems best at six furlongs thosugh he has won over this trip. Acts on softish ground. Has won at six furlongs at Haydock but also failed twice here over seven furlongs. BP=100/30

3) (2) 21-5 Meshaheer Marcus Tregoning 6-9-03 Willie Supple
Acts on soft ground and best trip is seven furlongs. Ran badly only time over course and distance. Ex Godolphin horse who is not the most trustworthy. And stable has yet to hit top form. BP=7/2

4) (5) 6-04 St Petersburg Mark Tompkins 5-9-03 Darryll Holland
Likes soft ground but best at a mile. Has yet to properly strike form this season. BP=6/1

5) (4) 18-7 Welsh Emperor Tom Tate 6-9-03bl Robert Winston
Often makes the running - best at six but was only just defeated at York over seven furlongs on soft ground. BP=4/1

SUMMARY
An interesting tactical affair where it is worth siding with POLAR BEN who looks excellent value.



CODEBREAKER - formerly in the Racing Post Weekender

Saturday, May 7, 2005

2.10pm £60,000 Letheby & Christopher Derby Trial Stakes 1m 3f 106yds, Lingfield, UK




Past Trends

no maiden has won in the last 16 runnings

all of the last 16 winners finished in the first three on their last start - the last seven won on that start

14 of the last 16 winners had run once earlier that season

11 of the last 16 winners had previously won over 10 furlongs



There are key patterns which emerge when studying past Lingfield Derby trials and these are applied to the six runners in this year’s renewal.


No maiden has won this trial for the Epsom classic in the last 16 runnings which immediately rules out Kong, however good a horse he may turn out to be.


All the last 16 winners came at least third on their previous start - Kings Quay was sixth while Party Boss was unplaced in the Guineas. They both get the chop.


14 of the last 16 winners had run once earlier in the season. Both Linngari and French raider Walk In The Park are making their seasonal debuts and the stats are against them.


Bandari in 2002 and Bob’s Return in 1993 are the only ones to have succeeded on their return to action in the latest 16 Lingfield Derby trials.


This leaves Melrose Avenue as the selection. His victory at Catterick on April 20 did not tell us much about how good he might be but helps confirm confidence in him.


The last seven winners of the Lingfield Derby trial scored on their previous start.

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