BP= the best price offered by bookmakers at the time of writing
1(5) 12-5 Albert Hall Aidan O’Brien 3-9-00 Jamie Heffernan
Well beaten in the totesport Dante Stakes over an extended 10 furlongs and last year finished second to Motivator in the Group One Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster over this distance. BP=25/1
2(3) -114 Bobs Pride Dermot Weld 3-9-00 Pat Smullen
Failed behind Fracas over 10 furlongs last time and does not appear to have the necessary class. BP= 20/1
3(8) -207 Capable Guest Mick Channon 3-9-00 bl Chris Catlin
Well beaten in German and English Guineas and the same should happen here. BP= 66/1
4(6) 5-16 Democratic Deficit Jim Bolger 3-9-00 Kevin Manning
Improved this season and was a fair sixth in the English 2,000 Guineas. But he has shown his best form on a fast surface to date. BP= 15/2
5(7) 11-5 Dubawi Saeed Bin Suroor 3-9-00 Frankie Dettori
A smart performer at two, winning the Group One National Stakes at this course on yielding ground over seven furlongs. Found the ground too lively when fifth in the English 2,000 Guineas, hanging left. Top class and is worth another chance. BP= 13/8
6(1) 314- Hills Of Aran Aidan O’Brien 3-9-00 Colm O’ Donoghue
No chance. BP= 66/1
7(4) 12-4 Oratorio Aidan O’Brien 3-9-00 Kieren Fallon
Stayed on when fourth in the English 2,000 Guineas and was a consistent sort in top class races last year. Dubawi may have more talent though. BP= 2/1
8(9) -142 Rebel Rebel Neville Callaghan 3-9-00 Oscar Urbina
An unexpected second in the English 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket but the performance cannot be totally dismissed. Different ground conditions. BP= 7/1
9(2) 21- Showdance NON-RUNNER
SUMMARY DUBAWI is the clear choice even though he is favourite - the conditions will suit him.
all of the last 18 winners competed between one and four times previously that term.
17 of the last 18 winners finished in the first three earlier that season
17 of the last 18 winners finished in the first four on their last start before Haydock
17 of the last 18 winners had already won a race
16 of the last 18 winners were priced at 12/1 or less
all of the 17 horses to have already won had scored over at least seven furlongs
15 of the last 18 winners carried 9st or less to success
In recent seasons Gerard Butler has been the trainer to follow in the totesport Silver Bowl at Haydock, where he has been successful twice in the last three seasons courtesy of Common World in 2002 and Jazz Messenger in 2003.
All of the last 18 winners competed between one and four times previously that term.
Of this year's 17 runners, this immediately rules out Propinquity, Home Affairs and Wedding Party who are all making their seasonal debuts.
17 of the last 18 winners finished in the first three earlier that season - the one exception being 1994 scorer Dance Turn, whose best previous finish that term was a fourth at Ripon.
Stagbury Hill, Pivotal Flame, Beaver Patrol, Fiefdom and Foxhaven are all eliminated as a result of this trend as none of this quintet have finished in the first three this year.
Since 1987 Dance Turn was the only winner of this prestigious event who did not finish in the first four on their last start before Haydock.
This does not bode well for Elliots World and Jalamid, neither of whom were good enough to finish in the top four on their most recent starts.
16 of the last 18 winners were priced at 12/1 or less - the two exceptions were Dance Turn at 25/1 and Cashtal Dazzler, successful in 1990, who was returned at 14/1.
This rules out Pevensey, Tagula Sunrise and Profit's Reality who are all currently priced at greater than that with the sponsors.
Turning to the issue of weight, 15 of the last 18 winners carried less than 9st. Real Quality (9st 2lb) is therefore passed over.
This leaves Codebreaker with three possibles - Notabilty, trained by Michael Jarvis, the William Muir-trained Enforcer and Looks Could Kill, trained by Gerard Butler.
Splitting these is difficult because of a number of factors. Looks Could Kill has the trainer in his favour but he has not won this year, something that the last eight winners have done, but he is drawn well in 16 as high numbers have been favoured since double digit fields started in 1998.
Notability has only raced five times in his career, more fitting the profile of recent winners than the other two, but is drawn poorly in stall four.
Enforcer has raced 10 times so far and you have to go back to Sonic Boy (12 previous runs) in 1995 to find a winner of this Haydock race that has been so busy beforehand but the Goodwood race he won recently has provided two of the last five scorers.
The draw is difficult to argue against which means we must lose Notability, leaving the choice between Looks Can Kill and Enforcer.
Looks Can Kill came third at Chester last time, a track which does not figure in the CVs of many of the past Silver Bowl winners (two of the last 18 to be precise) and therefore ENFORCER just gets the nod.
For old articles (from 1st March 2000) go to the Newslink
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