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Saturday, May 14, 2005


THE VALUE BETTING COLUMN EVERY SATURDAY




NEWBURY, SATURDAY, MAY 14, 2005



GOING: FIRM



For the latest best odds, go to www.britodds.com

1) (10) 920- Antonius Pius Aidan O'Brien IRE 4-9-00 Kieren Fallon
Talented but slightly quirky performer whose best performance last year came when he three away the French 2,000 Guineas by hitting the running rail. However, yard is in great form and he should not be overlooked. BP=5/1

2) (7) 01-2 Arakan Sir Michael Stoute 5-9-00 Michael Kinane
Useful performer at Listed/Group Three level but has struggled when tried in Group One company. Stable not firing on all cylinders and others appeal more. BP=16/1

3) (9) 1-12 Autumn Glory Geoff Wragg 5-9-00 NON RUNNER

4) (4) 1d-73 Babodana Mark Tompkins 5-9-00 Richard Hills
Won the Lincoln under top weight in 2004 but has struggled when tried in Pattern race company and is likely to do so again, especially on this very fast groud. BP=40/1

5) (8) 1419 Elvstroem Tony Vasil AUS 5-9-00t Nash Rawiller
Australian challenger. His win in the Group One Dubai Duty Free at Nad Al Sheba showed he was a useful performer but he did not beat a very strong field.. Interesting contender and was supplemented for this race, but probably best watched even though he will like the firm ground. BP=7/1

6) (3) 1421 Grand Emporium Saeed bin Suroor 5-9-00 Frankie Dettori
Was in good form on dirt at Nad Al Sheba over the winter, culminating in victory in the Group Two Godolphin Mile. Could be more improvement to come and he won on turf in South Africa and should act on this fast ground. BP=10/1

7) (11) 3221 Hurricane Alan Richard Hannon 5-9-00 Pat Dobbs
Recorded his second success in the Group Two Betfred Mile at Sandown last month. Consistent sort who should run his race but may find one or two too good.. BP=16/1

8) (6) 83-1 Le Vie Dei Colori Luca Cumani 5-9-00 Johnny Murtagh
Group One winner in Italy and ran with credit in Britain last year. His win in the Leicestershire Stakes on his reappearance showed him to be in good heart and he must be given a chance, even though there is question mark on very fast ground. He is a short price too. BP=4/1

9) (1) 91-4 Mac Love John Akehurst 4-9-00 Gary Carter
Group Three winner at Goodwood last season although has something to find on overall form to trouble the leading protagonists. On the upgrade though. BP=40/1

10) (5) 107- Rakti Michael Jarvis 6-9-00 Philip Robinson
Brilliant performer at his best over both a mile and 10 furlongs, as he demonstrated when winning the Prince of Wales's and Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot last year. However, he ruined his chance on other occasions by pulling too hard. The clear choice if he runs his best, but is worth taking on, especially on his seasonal debut. BP=9/4

11) (2) 1-11 Tarfah Gerard Butler 4-8-11Jamie Spencer
Lightly-raced filly who has won five of her six starts. Game winner at Newmarket last time but needs to show improvement to figure at this level. BP=16/1

SUMMARY
A fascinating race with quite few imponderables. The value is with Grand Emporium each-way. The doomsters say the Godolphin horses are not firing but this is not strictly true - there has been a change of training policy which means that more need a race or two. But Grand Emporium, having his first run for Godolphin, did very well in Dubai earlier this year and could surprise.


GOOD LUCK


CODEBREAKER

SATURDAY, MAY 14, 2005

NEWBURY,UK

2.40pm 200,000 JUDDMONTE LOCKINGE STAKES 1m str




Trends

Since 1986 18 of the 19 Lockinge winners have been aged either four or five, with 13 to five in favour of the younger age group.


Russian Rhythm is the only filly to have won in the last 19 runnings

Only two of the last 19 winners have had a starting price of above 9/1 yet favourites have a relatively poor record with only four successful

The Lockinge was granted Group One status in 1995 and since then eight of the 10 winners had previously been successful in a Group One or Two race.


15 of the last 19 victorious horses were either winning on their seasonal debut or their second outing of the campaign.



The Juddmonte Lockinge Stakes, run at Newbury over the straight mile course, is the first Group One race of the season in Europe for older horses and was landed last season by Russian Rhythm, who gamely held off Salselon by half a length.


Codebreaker will now examine the trends for this year's renewal to pinpoint the likely winner from the 11 declared runners.


Age seems to be a very important factor with 18 of the last 19 winners being aged four or five - the only horse older than this to score was the six-year-old Soviet Line in 1996. On that basis, we can immediately discount six-year-old Rakti, the favourite.


If that wasn't bad enough, only four market leaders have proved successful in the same period.


Tarfah must be discounted at this early stage due to the fact that no filly except Russian Rhythm has been successful in the past 19 runnings.


It would appear that horses must come into the Lockinge relatively fresh as 15 of the last 19 winners were scoring either on their seasonal debut or on their second outing of the season. Autumn Glory, Babodana, Elvstroem, Grand Emporium and Hurricane Alan have run twice or more already this season and so this quintet are discarded.


Since the Lockinge was upgraded to Group One status in 1995, it has been shown that winning form in Pattern race company is important with eight of the 10 victors since then having already won in Group One or Group Two company. Neither Arakan or Mac Love have achieved this feat and are therefore eliminated from calculations.


Returning to the issue of age, we can see that it is four-year-olds that hold the upper hand with 13 winners in the past 19 years having come from that age group. It therefore seems prudent to rule out the five-year-old Le Vie Dei Colori.


This leaves the enigmatic ANTONIUS PIUS as this week's Codebreaker selection and if he can be on his best behaviour, he looks certain to run a big race.

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