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Saturday, May 29, 2004


THE VALUE BETTING COLUMN EVERY SATURDAY




1.35pm KEMPTON, SATURDAY, MAY 29, 2004



totesport Handicap (Class C) (3yo+,0-90) 1m2f

GOING: GOOD TO FIRM

1) (5) 131- Windy Britain Luca Cumani 5-9-12 Darryll Holland
Stable in good form and would have a chance if she is fit enough as looked very much on the upgrade at the end of last year. Very consistent but no value.

BP = 9/2

2) (3) 4920 Arry Dash Mick Channon 4-9-10 Ted Durcan
Has been running fairly well of late but looks in the grip of the handicapper and made no impression at Epsom last time out.

BP = 14/1

3) (1) -341 Polar Jem (ex6) George Margarson 4-9-03 Adrian McCarthy
Impressive winner at Ripon earlier this week when getting the faster ground she needed and looks open to further improvement. Must have a good chance. and is excellent value.

BP = 8/1

4) (13) -009 Prairie Wolf Michael Bell 8-9-02 Ian Mongan
Goes well at Goodwood but has not done enough lately to give him any chance here.

BP = 25/1

5) (2) 3003 Northside Lodge Peter Harris 6-9-01 Martin Dwyer
Showed signs of a return to form when at Leicester last time but the question is whether the form amounts to much.

BP = 8/1

6) (11) -011 Summer Bounty Frank Jordan 8-9-00 Robert Miles(3)
Won latest two starts but has gone up 8lb since the last success and has more to do here but cannot be dismissed..

BP = 16/1

7) (12) 9199 Caroubier John Gallagher 4-9-00 Jimmy Quinn
Won well at Windsor two starts ago over a mile and ran better than finishing position would suggest at Goodwood last time. Has some chance but others appeal more.

BP = 20/1

8) (15) 2310 Rasid Chris Dwyer 6-8-13 Steve Drowne
In good form at a lower class earlier in this season but struggled in this grade at Newmarket last time and likely to do so again.

BP = 33/1

9) (9) 6225 Tony Tie Jimmy Goldie 8-8-13 John Egan
Good performer over the years but always vulnerable to more progressive sorts in this kind of contests and could do with the handicapper dropping him a few pounds.

BP = 20/1

10) (10) -044 Desert Island Disc John Bridger 7-8-13 Frankie McDonald(3)
Reasonable level of form but generally suited by longer distances.

BP = 25/1

11) (16) 5233 Street Life Willie Musson 6-8-12 Gary Carter
Third when favourite at Windsor last time and would have some chance off this weight on some of his earlier form - tends to come late.

BP = 14/1

12) (14) 69-7 Freeloader NON RUNNER

13) (8) 4550 Silvaline Tommy Keddy 5-8-12 Paul Doe
Has been beaten quite far on last two starts.

BP = 25/1

14) (7) 0-26 Lilli Marlane Neville Callaghan 4-8-10b1 Frankie Dettori
Clear chance on her recent efforts over a mile at Ascot and Hamilton. Open to further improvement and with the first time blinkers to sharpen her up, is clearly one for the shortlist. No real value though.

BP = 6/1

15) (4) -644 Todlea Jamie Osborne 4-8-10 Johnny Murtagh
Decent level of form and another who has a chance judged on his recent effort at Newbury. Good value.

BP = 14/1

16) (6) 5542 Karaoke Sylvester Kirk 4-8-03 Ryan Moore
Generally consistent form this season and last two efforts have been sound. This is probably a tougher race.

BP = 10/1

SUMMARY
A mixture of old stagers and improving types. The two who are best value in this interesting race are Polar Jem and Todlea. It is difficult to pick between the two but POLAR JEM just gets the nod she proved it last time out. Back each-way even though typically we down to three places because of a non-runner.






FOR SATURDAY, MAY 29, 2004

KEMPTON PARK, UK.


3.15pm £20,000-added totetrifecta Wokingham Trial Handicap 6f




Past Trends

11 of the last 12 winners competed between one and four times previously that term.


10 of the last 12 winners had already run that season

10 of the last 12 winners carried 8st 12lb or above to success

10 of the last 12 winners were priced at 12/1 or less

8 of the last 12 winners finished in the first five on their last start before Haydock

7 of the last 12 winners emerged from stall 11 or higher


Connections of horses lining up in this weekend’s totetrifecta Wokingham Trial Handicap at Kempton will be hoping that their charges ultimately proves good and fast enough to run in next month’s Wokingham Handicap at Royal Ascot.


11 of the last 12 winners competed between one and four times previously that term - the one exception was the Simon Dow-trained Scharnhorst, who was seen in action five times before he was victorious in 1996.


Of this year’s 20 runners, this immediately rules out Seven No Trumps, Zarzu, True Night, Prince Aaron and Savile’s Delight who have all raced at least four times during the year.


Most, 10 of 12, already had a run that season - the exceptions being So Intrepid in 1994 and Antonio Canova six years later. Danehill Stroller, Domirati, Thurlestone Rock and Hey Presto are making their seasonal debuts and therefore disappear from calculations.


Weight in any handicap is crucial and this race is no exception. No fewer than 10 of the last 12 scorers carrying 8st 12lb or above to victory.

This means that bottom weight One Way Ticket, who is on 7st 12lb, can be ruled out of consideration.

Eight of the last 12 winners finished in the first five on their last start before Kempton - the ones that did not manage this feat were So Intrepid in 1994, Delta Soleil five years later, CD Flyer in 2002 and Ringmoor Down last season.


None of Najeebon, Mutawaqed, Gaelic Princess, Turibius, Canterloupe or Hey Presto were good enough to manage a top five finish on their latest outing and and therefore are eliminated from scrutiny.


Seven of the last 12 winners emerged from stall 11 or higher including the last three successful horses. Marsad (drawn 10), Marker (drawn nine) and Kingscross (drawn two) get the chop for failing to meet this criteria.

This leaves two - eight-year-old Antonio Canova and six-year-old Loyal Tycoon.


Antonio Canova won this race in 2001 and was successful last time out at Nottongham which ironically rules him out of contention as only two and the last 12 winners won the time before.


LOYAL TYCOON, second last time out, is drawn in 14 and looks the one to be on, especially as he will be among the market leaders - 10 of the last 12 winners were returned at 12/1 or less.







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