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Saturday, May 22, 2004


THE VALUE BETTING COLUMN EVERY SATURDAY

THE CURRAGH, IRELAND

3.20pm Boylesports Irish 2,000 Guineas 1m


Going Good to firm turf
BP= best price - for best current prices go to BritOdds.com (click on link above)

1(1) 1-33 Amarula Ridge (IRE) (C) Kevin Prendergast 9 0 D P McDonogh
Beaten three and a half lengths by Grey Swallow in the Leopardstown trial on April 18 and there is no real reason why he should turn the form around.

BP= 50/1

2(5) 11-3 Azamour (IRE) (CD) J Oxx 9 0 M J Kinane
Finished well when third, a length ahead of Grey Swallow, in the UltimateBet.com 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket. Useful sort who may need further. No value.
BP = 13/8

3(8) 334-0 Bachelor Duke (USA) J Toller(UK) 9 0 S Sanders
Seventh in the UtimateBet.com 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket. It was either a fluke or else he is a promising sort. His form with Milk It Mick last season suggests the latter but he is being very highly tried.

BP = 9/1

4(6) 1325-2 Grand Reward (USA) A P O'Brien 9 0 J P Spencer
A useful sort but was beaten three and a half lengths by Leitrim House over seven furlongs here on May 3 and it is not obvious why he should turn the form around.

BP = 11/1

5(3) 11-14 Grey Swallow (IRE) (D) D Weld 9 0 P J Smullen
Fourth in the UltimateBet.com 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket when finishing well. Has every chance but is no value.
BP = 15/8

6(7) 0 Hayburn Street (IRE) D Weld 9 0 P Shanahan
Pacemaker
BP = 150/1

7(2) 16-11 Leitrim House (C) (D) B Meehan(UK) 9 0 S J Drowne
Won well at the Curragh last time out and proved he stays a mile when successful on the all-weather at Lingfield. Must have a good chance and is excellent each-way value..

BP = 11/2

8(4) 542-146 Newton (IRE) (C) A P O'Brien 9 0 B
A pacemaker albeit a good one.

BP = 50/1

SUMMARY
Go with Leitrim House each-way for the value.




totesport Silver Bowl Codebreaker

FOR SATURDAY, MAY 22, 2004

HAYDOCK PARK, UK.


2.30pm £90,000 totesport Silver Bowl Heritage Handicap 1m




Past Trends

all of the last 17 winners competed between one and four times previously that term.


16 of the last 17 winners finished in the first three earlier that season

16 of the last 17 winners finished in the first four on their last start before Haydock

16 of the last 17 winners had already won a race

15 of the last 17 winners were priced at 12/1 or less

all of the 16 horses to have already won had scored over at least seven furlongs

14 of the last 17 winners carried 9st or less to success


In recent seasons, Gerard Butler has been the trainer to follow in the totesport Silver Bowl at Haydock where he has been successful with Common World in 2002 and Jazz Messenger last year. However, his stable is currently out of form and he is not represented in the valuable mile handicap this year.


The last 17 winners of the Totesport Silver Bowl competed between one and four times previously that term.


Of this year’s 20 runners, this immediately rules out the Clive Brittain-trained Bahiano, who has already had six appearances in 2004.


16 of the last 17 winners finished in the first three earlier that season - the one exception being 1994 scorer Dance Turn, whose best previous finish that term was a fourth at Ripon.


Spanish Ace, White Hawk, Asia Winds, Overdrawn, Colour Wheel, Convince and Benny The Ball are all eliminated as a result of this trend as none of this sextet have been placed this year.


Since 1987, Dance Turn was the only winner of this prestigious event who did not finish in the first four on their last start before Haydock.


This does not bode well for Parkview Love, Makfool, Appalachian Trail and Star Pupil, none of whom were good enough to finish in the frame on their most recent starts.


The only horse to win the totesport Silver Bowl in the last 17 runnings having not previously won a race was Winter Romance in 1996. The Ed Dunlop-trained winner had been placed on three occasions.


Sir Michael Stoute’s Capped For Victory has been placed on all four of his career starts but is still searching for that elusive first win and disappears from the reckoning.


15 of the last 17 winners were priced at 12/1 or less - the two exceptions were Dance Turn at 25/1 and Cashtal Dazzler, successful in 1990, who was returned at 14/1.


This rules out Freak Occurrence, Doctorate and Inchloss, who are all currently priced at 20/1 or greater with the sponsor.


This leaves Codebreaker with four remaining runners - the Mick Channon-trained Gatwick, Secretary General, trained by Paul Cole, the Barry Hills-trained Zonus and Oasis Star, trained by Peter Harris.


How do we choose between them? Since 1996, the draw seems to have been a significant factor, with higher numbers favoured. From last year working back, the winner has come from 12 of 12, 10 of 12, 9 of 18, 12 of 16, 16 of 17, 7 of 10, 6of 6 and 8 of 10.


Taking this as a guide, then GATWICK is the Codebreaker choice this week as he is drawn highest of four in 17 - Zonus is in 12, Oasis Star 11 and Secretary General 5.


For old articles (from 1st March 2000) go to the Newslink Archive


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