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Saturday, May 15, 2004


THE VALUE BETTING COLUMN EVERY SATURDAY

SATURDAY, MAY 15, 2004

NEWBURY RACECOURSE

2.05pm £30,000 Paddy Power Stakes (Registered As The Aston Park Stakes) (Listed Race) (4yo+) 1m 5f 110yds turf


Going - Good

BP = Best Price - For the latest odds go to www.BritOdds.com - see link above

1)(7) 683- Gold Medallist 226 David Elsworth 4-9-01 Dane O‘Neill
Ran eighth in the St Leger last year and this company is more like it. Seems to like to make the running or be very near the pace. Has been gelded since last season and his trainer things the four-year-old will need the race. This is a minimum distance for him.

BP= 18/1

2)(1) 18-0 Yawmi 21 Barry Hills 4-9-01 Richard Hills
Lightly-raced sort who was well beaten in bad ground last time out. Has yet to show he is up to this class.

BP= 25/1

3)(6) 34-9 Delsarte 49 Saeed Bin Suroor 4-8-12t Frankie Dettori
The clear form pick - he finished in the frame in three Group Twos last year and was not disgraced first time out in a Group One on turf in Dubai over 12 furlongs on fast ground. Today’s trip and ground will suit him much better. The one question mark is whether he will need the race as many of Godolphin’s seemed to have done so far this season.

BP= 100/30 bet365

4)(8) 15-0 Distinction 28 Sir Michael Stoute 5-8-12 Kieren Fallon
Distinction is expected to come for his first race of the year over an inadequate mile and half but still may need further. Should run well but has a bit to find on form.

BP= 11/2

5)(3) /495 Forest Magic 8 Paul D’Arcy 4-8-12 Paul Eddery
Has not been disgraced in his races this year but it has yet to be answered if he is good enough for this sort of company.

BP= 25/1

6)(4) 06-0 Gulf 35 David Elsworth 5-8-12 Johhny Murtagh
Has finished last on his most recent starts and even at his best would probably struggle to win this contest.

BP= 33/1

7)(5) 55-7 Savannah Bay 17 Brian Meehan 5-8-12b Richard Hughes
Tailed off on reappearance on very bad ground at Ascot but ran well enough in the Cup races last year. May find this trip on the short side.

BP= 11/1

8)(2) 2-72 The Whistling Teal 8 Geoff Wragg 8-8-12 Darryll Holland
The favourite on the strength on his recent Chester second in the Betdaq Ormonde Stakes but he had a hard race that day and is not getting any younger - worth opposing.

BP= 11/10

SUMMARY
DELSARTE
is the clear value in this Listed contest.




CODEBREAKER

SATURDAY, MAY 15, 2004

NEWBURY

2.40pm £200,000 JUDDMONTE LOCKINGE STAKES 1m str



Trends

Since 1986 17 of the 18 Lockinge winners have been aged either four or five, with 12 to 5 in favour of the younger age group.


No filly has won in the last 18 runnings

Only two of the last 18 winners have had a starting price of above 9-1 yet favourites have a poor record with only three successful

The Lockinge was granted Group 1 status in 1995 and since then seven of the nine winners had previously been successful in a Group 1 or 2 race.


14 of the last 18 victorious horses were either winning on their seasonal debut or their second outing of the campaign.



The Juddmonte Lockinge Stakes, run at Newbury over the straight mile course, is the first Group One race of the season in Europe for older horses and was landed in spectacular fashion last season by Hawk Wing, who scored by 11 lengths form Where Or When.


Codebreaker will now examine the trends for this year’s renewal to pinpoint the likely winner tomorrow from the 15 declared runners.


Age seems to be a very important factor with 17 of the last 18 winners being aged four or five - the only horse older than this to score was the six-year-old Soviet Line in 1996. On that basis, we can immediately discount the six-year-olds Desert Deer and With Reason as well as the seven-year-old olds Gateman and Quito.


Last year’s 1000 Guineas heroine Russian Rhythm currently heads the market for this year’s Lockinge but she must be discounted at this early stage due to the fact that no filly has been successful in the past 18 runnings. If that wasn’t bad enough, only three market leaders have proved successful in the same period.


It would appear that horses must come into the Lockinge relatively fresh as 14 or the last 18 winners were scoring either on their seasonal debut or on their second outing of the season. Checkit, Hurricane Alan and Krataios have run twice or more already this season and so are discarded.


Since the Lockinge was upgraded to Group One status in 1995, it would appear that winning form in Pattern race company is important with seven of the nine victors since then having already won in Group One or Group Two company. None of Ikthyar, Norse Dancer and Salselon have achieved this feat and are therefore eliminated from our calculations.


Returning to the issue of age, we can see that it is four-year-olds that hold the upper hand with 12 winners in the past 18 years having come from that age group. It therefore seems prudent to rule out the five-year-old Firebreak.


While the Juddmonte Lockinge Stakes has a relatively poor record for favourites, it is generally won by a fancied horse with only two of the past 18 winners having started at 9/1 or greater.

Of the three remaining entries, both Tout Seul and Indian Haven are currently trading at 14/1 or so while Refuse To Bend is available at around 9/2.

Following that trend the nod must go to REFUSE TO BEND. The selection is taken to continue Godolphin’s fine record in this contest with the victories Cape Cross (1998), Fly To The Stars (1999) and Aljabr (2000).



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