Saturday, May 17, 2003
THE VALUE BETTING COLUMN EVERY SATURDAY
SATURDAY, MAY 17, 2003
NOTTINGHAM, UK.
3.55pm £10,000 added TOTE CREDIT CLUB HANDICAP 1m 6f 15 yards
Going - Good to soft
BP= best prices offered by Coral Eurobet, William Hill, Ladbrokes and the Tote
1 King Flyer NON RUNNER
2 (drawn 2) 013012- Contact Dancer(days since last ran189) John Dunlop 4-9-11 G Duffield
BP= 3/1 Coral
Solid stayer with good form on sift ground. This would be a minimum trip for him and he has to give weight all round on his seasonal debut. But races off the same mark as the end of last season and cannot be dismissed. No value.
3 (11) 0-50103 Mystic Forest(86) Brian Meehan 4-9-7 b P Dobbs
BP= 14/1 Tote
Has been running on the all-weather, doing best at Southwell over this trip. On turf he may need further but is on a 4lb lower mark.
4(15) 5311-02 Forever Loved(52) David Haydn Jones 4-9-7 J F Egan
BP= 10/1 Coral
Close second over course and distance at the end of March - his best run on turf - and has gone up 3lb for that. Has not run for 52 days.
5 (18) 100-001 Mr Ed(13)Peter Bowen 5-9-6 J-P Guillambert(5)
BP= 7/2 Coral
Won well over this distance at Salisbury on May 4 and gave the impression that he might have improved. The ground then was similar to what he will encounter today. Races off a 5lb higher mark but his capable rider’s claim will nullify that. Has a good chance but his price is too short.
6 (4) 00105-4 Factor Fifteen(46)Ed Dunlop 4 9-6 J Carroll
BP= 11/1 William Hill
Well beaten fourth in a two-mile race here on April 1. Yet to find his best distance and this may be too far on softish ground.
7 (1) 04-3004 Coco Loco(57) Lydia Pearce 6 9-0 M Hills
BP= 11/1 Coral
Needs further than this and last ran on March 21.
8 (14) 314130- North Point(246) Roger Curtis 5 8-13 G Baker
BP= 14/1 Coral & Tote
Fit from a successful hurdling campaign on fast ground. May have improved but has yet to prove his credentials on the Flat and on softish ground.
9 (13) 00-0060 Turtle Valley(18) Simon Dow 7 8-11 Paul Eddery
BP= 22/1 Tote
Dropping down the handicap - reduced 5lb here - and will win eventually. However, it may not be today as he could need further.
10 Distant Cousin NON RUNNER
11 Triplemoon NON RUNNER
12 (17) 642310 Shush(24) Clive Brittain 5 8-7 W Ryan
BP= 25/1 Tote
Trainer in form and Shush’s eighth last time out is better than it looks. May be suited by a step up to this distance and appeared to show better form on the all-weather during the winter. Has been dropped 5lb and looks really good value.
13 (12) 035110 Isa'af(7) P Hyatt 4 8-1 C Catlin
BP= 14/1 Coral
Form is on fast ground and he is higher in the handicap after two wins.
14 (3) 001-030 Woodyates(7)Willie Musson 6 7-12 Lisa Jones(5)
BP= 16/1 Tote & William Hill
Third in a similar race here on April 21 and is not out of it on a 2lb higher mark but does not win often.
15 (9) 0005-00 Lyric Maestro(11) Simon Dow 4 7-12 G Bardwell
BP= 50/1 Coral
Trying this distance for the first time. Yet to find right distance and form.
16 (16) 01040-0 Simple Ideals(8) Don Enrico Incisa 9 7-12 Kim Tinkler
BP= 40/1 Coral
Has shown form over this distance but others are preferred.
17(8) 001001 Sconced(15)M Polglase 8 7-12 v J Mackay
BP= 22/1 Coral
Out and out stayer who acts on soft but needs further than this trip.
18 (6) 260000/ Sea Victor(768) John Harris11 7-12 S Righton
BP= 150/1 Coral
Has not run for a very long time and is best forgotten.
15 runners
SUMMARY
SHUSH is tremendous each-way value at 25/1 for this fascinating handicap.
GOOD LUCK
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