THERE IS NO VALUE BETTING COLUMN THIS WEEK BECAUSE OF THE CROSSOVER IN SEASONS
CODEBREAKER every Saturday
formerly in the Racing Post Weekender
AYR, SATURDAY, APRIL 19, 2008
3.40pm £170,000 CORAL SCOTTISH GRAND NATIONAL
4m 110yds
Past Trends
20 of the last 21 winners were placed in the first three at least once earlier in the campaign
20 of the last 21 winners have won over at least three miles at some stage of their career
17 of the last 21 winners carried 11st 2lb or less to victory
11 of the last 21 winners were aged eight or nine, including seven of the 11 most recent scorers
Of the last 21 winners, 11 were quite well fancied, returning at 12/1 or less, including six of the last 11
The Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase, one of the most gruelling tests of stamina on the National Hunt calendar, takes centre stage this weekend at Ayr.
Since being relocated from Bogside to Ayr in 1966, this extended four-mile marathon has been won by some top-class staying chasers.
The incredible Red Rum, who won the Grand National at Aintree an unprecedented three times, took the honours in 1974, while Little Polveir, successful in 1987, and Earth Summit, who scored as a novice in 1994, are others to have achieved the notable double.
Good recent form has been hugely important in this £170,000 contest, with 20 of the last 21 winners having been placed in the first three at least once earlier in the season.
With that statistic in mind, leading fancy and Irish raider Patsy Hall from the stable of handicap king Tony Martin can immediately be ruled out having failed to finish closer than fourth this season. Ossmoses and Noir Et Vert, both of whom have failed to make the frame on their only starts this season, along with Dunbrody Millar are eliminated at this stage.
Proven stamina is another key to the outcome of this Grade Three chase. In the last 21 renewals, the recently retired Joes Edge is the only winner who had not won over at least three miles prior to his success. Given that Openide, Tommy Spar, Irish Wolf and Azulejo have yet to score over three miles or beyond, they can all be overlooked at this point.
As with most races of this nature, horses at the bottom end of the handicap tend to do best and it is hardly surprising that 17 of the last 21 winners carried 11st 2lb or less to success. The inclusion of the 169-rated Halcon Genelardais in the field of 24 has pushed all bar two of his rivals out of the handicap. He is burdened with upwards of 16lb more than any of his opponents and is, therefore, ruled out by Codebreaker.
Horses aged eight or nine have the best record in this contest, with 11 of the last 21 winners fitting into that bracket. That statistic has been more prominent in recent years with seven of the last 11 scorers in that age category.
Eight of the remaining 15 runners fall victim here, namely Opera Mundi, joint-favourite Old Benny and Flintoff, who are all considered too young, along with Philson Run, Model Son, Another Rum, Strong Resolve and In The Loop, who are aged 10 and upwards.
The effects of a recent run have been influential on the outcome of this race, with 15 of the last 21 winners coming into the race without having run since March. Only John Smith’s Grand National 10th Mon Mome is ruled out here.
Six of the 24 runners have survived the trends so far. However, given that 11 of the last 21 winners, including six of the last 10, have been returned at odds of 12/1 or less, outsiders Wild Cane Ridge, Kilbeggan Blade, Leading Man and Royal Rosa are all ruled out.
Only one horse has survived the trends, making this week’s Codebreaker selection leading hope MIKO DE BEAUCHENE.
A winner of the Coral Welsh National at Chepstow over three miles, five and a half furlongs on December 27, he looks to have the right credentials for this race.
Second on his most recent start in the Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival, the dual Grade Three handicap chase winner he has a good racing weight of 10st 10lb and should be involved at the business end.
For old articles (from 1st March 2000) go to the Newslink
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