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Saturday, April 22, 2006


THE VALUE BETTING COLUMN EVERY SATURDAY




AYR, SATURDAY, APRIL 22, 2006

2.50pm £60,000 Samsung Electronics Scottish Champion Handicap Hurdle
2m



for the best odds go to www.BritOdds.com
BP= the best price at the time of writing

GOING: GOOD TO SOFT

1) -1P5 ARCALIS Howard Johnson 6-11-10 Tony McCoy
Landed the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham last year and made a winning reappearance in the Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle. Soft ground was to blame for his failure at Haydock two runs back and he fared better when fifth in the Champion Hurdle last time. Has to give weight to all his rivals here and stable been fairly quiet lately but cannot be dismissed entirely. No value though. BP= 4/1


2) 2338 FAASEL Nicky Richards 5-11-06v Tony Dobbin
High-class novice last season, winning four times and finishing runner-up in the Triumph Hurdle. He has struggled this year but was running consistently until coming eighth in the Champion Hurdle last month. He should appreciate the decent ground and is not out of it. BP=11/2

3) 1207 ROYAL SHAKESPEARE Steve Gollings 7-11-00 Tom Scudamore
A grand servant to his connections, running 12 times this year and landing the Elite Hurdle at Wincanton and Agfa UK Hurdle at Sandown on decent ground. Takes his races very well but falls short of the top level - well beaten at Cheltenham and Aintree on his last two starts - so this handicap gives him a chance. Cames second under 11 st 8lb last year. BP=11/1

4) 333P MISTER MCGOLDRICK Sue Smith 9-10-12 Dominic Elsworth
Consistent and versatile performer who always gives his best, equally at home over hurdles or fences between two and two and a half miles. Took the Castleford Chase at Wetherby for the second successive year in December, but a busy season looked to catch up with him at Aintree last time after a top-class third in the Queen Mother Champion Chase. Strictly held by Royal Shakespeare on earlier Sandown form. BP=10/1

5) 7122 NOBLE REQUEST Philip Hobbs 5-10-09 Richard Johnson
Has had only five races this term and is in great form at present, finishing second in the County Hurdle at Cheltenham on his penultimate start and again when trying to give 17lb to stablemate Wellbeing at Aintree two weeks ago. Could be improving but has gone up in the handicap for both those efforts - this time by 5lb - and has to be to be on the upgrade. Poor value. BP=3/1

6) 4640 PHAR BLEU Paul Nicholls 5-10-08t Ruby Walsh
Grade One-winning novice who ran well when third in the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham in November and again when fourth in the longer Coral Cup at the Cheltenham Festival last month. He had every chance over two and a half miles at Aintree last time before weakening over the last. The stable continues in great form and he is 12lb better off for a seven-length beating by Faasel last season. He comes back to two miles here. BP=7/1

7) 1400 DESERT AIR Martin Pipe 7-10-04t Rodi Greene
His finest hour came at Sandown in January when he landed the Ladbroke Handicap Hurdle on testing ground, but has been disappointing on three subsequent starts. He needs a dramatic return to form to have a chance in this grade. BP= 22/1

8) -18P UNITED Lucy Wadham 5-10-04 Leighton Aspell
She was unbeaten in three hurdle races as a novice, bringing up the hat-trick in grand style in a Grade One contest at Punchestown. Injury delayed her return until March, when she ran respectably to be eighth under top weight in the Imperial Cup at Sandown and, although below-par at Auteuil in France last time out, better is expected. Stable back in form. BP= 8/1

9) 6190 OVERSTRAND Robert Gray 7-10-04 Tom Greenway (5)
Decent performer at a lower level, as when scoring in a handicap hurdle at Market Rasen in February, but struggles when raised in class. His jockey’s claim will help but seems to have little chance from 12lb out of the handicap. BP= 125/1


SUMMARY
A fascinating and competitive contest which should be run at a fast and furious pace. Phar Bleu is taken as the value each-way.


GOOD LUCK


CODEBREAKER every week

formerly in the Racing Post Weekender

AYR, SATURDAY, APRIL 22, 2006

3.30pm £160,000 GALA CASINOS DAILY RECORD SCOTTISH GRAND NATIONAL
4m 1f




Past Trends

all of the last 19 winners were placed in the first three at least once earlier in the campaign

18 of the last 19 winners have won over three miles at some stage of their career

15 of the last 19 winners carried 11st 2lb or less to victory

10 of the last 19 winners were aged eight or nine, including six of the nine most recent scorers

Of the last 19 winners, 11 were quite well fancied, returning at 12/1 or less, including seven of the last nine



Following the thrilling victory of Numbersixvalverde in the John Smith’s Grand National at Aintree two weeks ago, it is the turn of Scotland and Ayr to take centre stage, for the Gala Casinos Daily Record Scottish Grand National.


Since being relocated from Bogside to Ayr in 1966, this four mile and one furlong marathon has been won by some top-class staying chasers.


The incredible Red Rum, who won the Grand National at Aintree an unprecedented three times, took the honours in 1974, while Little Polveir, successful in 1987, and Earth Summit, who scored as a novice in 1994, are others to have achieved the notable double.


Every one of the last 19 winners of the Scottish National had been placed in the first three at least once earlier in the season.


Of this year’s 19-strong field, Calling Brave, Baron Windrush, Shotgun Willy, Another Rum, Lord Atterbury and Polar Red have yet to achieve a top-three finish so far this campaign, and are therefore discounted.


Joes Edge, victorious 12 months ago, was unusual in that he is the only horse in the last 19 years to have landed the prize having not previously won over a distance of at least three miles.


Polar Red is the only member of this year’s field not to have scored over three miles at some point earlier in his career, but he has already been eliminated due to not having made the frame this term.


Lighter-weighted horses have been favoured in this stamina contest - indeed 15 of the last 19 winners carried 11st 2lb or less to victory, and from the 20 runners who set out last year, the nine that finished all carried less than 11 stone.

From this year’s field, Royal Auclair (11st 12lb), Take The Stand (11st 10lb), Darkness (11st 5lb) and Royal Emperor (11st 4lb) are omitted due to their burdens.


Eight and nine-year-olds have done particularly well, winning on 10 occasions since 1987, including in six of the last nine renewals.

The six-year-olds Halcon Genelardais, Mon Mome and King Killone are eliminated, as are seven-year-olds Idle Talk, L’Aventure and Ladalko, 10-year-olds Philson Run, Ebony Light and Run For Paddy, 11-year-olds The Bajan Bandit, Truckers Tavern and Kerry Lads, and the 12-year-old veteran Robbo.


Of the last 19 winners, 11 were quite well fancied, returning at 12/1 or less, including seven of the last nine.

For that reason, we say goodbye to Juveigneur, Model Son, Korelo, Zabenz and Double Honour, all freely available at 14/1 or bigger.


Codebreaker has narrowed down the runners to a straight choice between the nine-year-old Nil Desperandum and the eight-year-old All In The Stars.


Looking at the last 19 winners of the Gala Casinos Daily Record Scottish Grand National, it is evident that 12 of them had already won at least one race earlier in the season.


While Nil Desperandum has yet to get his head in front this term, ALL IN THE STARS has already scored twice, and is therefore the Codebreaker selection this week.

For old articles (from 1st March 2000) go to the Newslink Archive

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