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Saturday, April 2, 2005



Doncaster, Saturday, April 2, 2005

3.20pm £100,000 Stanleybet Lincoln,one mile straight CODEBREAKER




Past Trends

17 of the last 19 victorious horses were aged between four and six

17 of the last 19 victorious horses were making either their seasonal debut or had raced on one occasion earlier that term

16 of the last 19 victorious horses gained at least one success on turf during the previous campaign

14 of the last 19 victorious horses carried 8st 10lb or less to success

11 of the last 19 victorious horses were drawn in stall eight or lower


Seventeen of the last 19 victorious horses in the Stanleybet Lincoln were aged between four and six, with the two exceptions being Star Of A Gunner in 1987 and Hunters Of Brora, the 1998 winner, who were seven and eight respectively.


Of this year's 22 runners, this immediately rules out seven-year-olds Mine and Cardinal Venture.


Over the last 19 runnings of this valuable event, 17 winners were making either their seasonal debut or had raced on one occasion earlier that term. The two anomalies were 1990 hero Evichstar, who had been seen on a racecourse three times previously in the campaign, and Amenable, the winner the following year, whose five earlier starts included four successes on the all-weather.


Blythe Knight, Forever Free, King's Thought, Common World, Always Esteemed and Jazz Scene are all considered unlikely winners as this sextet have all raced more than once this term.


16 of the last 19 victorious horses gained at least one success on turf during the previous campaign.


This means that New Seeker, Resplendent One and Rocket Force are discounted as none of them got their heads in front last season.


Weight in any handicap is vital and 14 of the last 19 Lincoln victors carried 8st 10lb or less to success.

This means that those on 8st 11lb or more must be discarded and so Divine Gift, Stream Of Gold, El Coto, St Petersburg, Blue Spinnaker and Vortex disappear from the reckoning.


11 of the last 19 victorious horses were drawn in stall eight or lower.


This rules out Lucayan Legend, My Paris, Appalachian Trail and Wing Commander.


This means that this week's Codebreaker selection is POLYGONAL.

Confidence behind the selection is increased as he will emerge from stall eight, the very same stall that Right Wing won from in 1999, and also he is trained by Lynda Ramsden, successful with High Premium in 1993.


For old articles (from 1st March 2000) go to the Newslink Archive


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