Saturday, April 17, 2004
THE VALUE BETTING COLUMN EVERY SATURDAY
1.40pm, NEWBURY, SATURDAY, APRIL 17, 2004
BP = at the time of writing but for the best current odds go to www.BritOdds.com (Click on link above)
1.40pm £50,000 Dubai Irish Village Stakes (Registered As The John Porter Stakes) (Group 3) 1m 4f
GOING: GOOD , good to soft in places the back straight
1) (4)117- Imperial Dancer Mivk Channon 6-9-05 Ted Durcan
Admirable performer who deserved his Group One win in Italy last year, but will find things tough under his penalty here.
BP = 10/1
2) (17) 442- Bandari Mark Johnston 5-8-12 Richard Hills
Good form two seasons ago and ran well last year plus stable in good form. Chance if at his best, but has not run since July, 2003.
BP = 11/2
3) (12)114- Barolo Peter Harris 5-8-12 Martin Dwyer
Progressive handicapper in 2003 but will need to have improved significantly to win this as he is stepping up in class and down in distance.
BP = 33/1
4) (2)715- Distinction Sir Michael Stoute 5-8-12 Steve Drowne
Decent handicapper and looks the type his trainer could improve further, but has always looked as if he was better suited by further.
BP = 18/1
5) (15)123- Gamut Sir Michael Stoute 5-8-12t Kieren Fallon
Progressive performer who goes well fresh. Course winner here last year and has a leading chance, although softer ground would suit him better.
BP = 9/2
6) (14)541/ Jelani Andrew Turnell 5-8-12 Fergal Lynch
Promising performer in 2002, when he finished fourth in the Derby. Off with injury throughout last season and last ran in July 2002 and may well need this, but a huge price nonetheless.
BP = 66/1
7) (1)12-7 Perfect Storm Michaed Blanshard 5-8-12 Seg Sanders
Fair handicapper but looks out of his depth here.
BP = 66/1
8) (13) 69-5 Pugin David Loder 6-8-12 Johnny Murtagh
Good form in his early career with John Oxx and showed signs of a return to form at Lingfield on his first start for David Loder. Should improve for this step back up in trip but will probably know further still.
BP = 12/1
9) (5) 452- The Whistling Teal Geoff Wragg 8-8-12 Darryll Holland
Often runs well in this kind of race but winning record is not great overall and likely to find a few too godd here, although he does go well at Newbury and first time out..
BP = 14/1
10) (16)7342 Anani Ed Dunlop 4-8-11 Eddie Ahern
Second in the Winter Derby last time when getting the run of the race but likely to find things tougher in this company on turf.
BP = 14/1
11) (3)51d3- Dubai Success Barry Hills 4-8-11Michael Hills
Stable in good form and this lightly-raced sort looked the sort to do well as a four-year-old. A possible but needs to improve.
BP = 10/1
12) (9)-929 Dutch Gold Clive Brittain 4-8-11 Frankie Dettori
Winner of the Chester Vase in 2003 and ran well when sixth in the Derby but overall record then is unconvincing but fit from Dubai.
BP = 18/1
13) (11)11/4 Forest Magic Paul D’Arcy 4-8-11 Philip Robinson
Good juvenile in 2002 but not seen out again until this season, finishing fourth at Doncaster last month. Hard to see him winning this.
BP = 40/1
14) (8)18-3 Hilbre Island Brian Meehan 4-8-11 Richard Hughes
Winner at Listed level but has never really shown enough to make him a leading performer here.
BP = 14/1
15) (7)547- Let Me Try Again Terry Mills 4-8-11 Kevin Darley
Second in Lingfield Derby Trial last year and raced in top company afterwards. Has been gelded and can do well this season.
BP = 18/1
16) (10)243- Salsalino Alan King 4-8-11 Tony Culhane
Useful staying three-year-old last year and the type to do better with another year, but way not have the speed to win this.
BP = 11/1
17) (6) 21- Sayadaw Henry Cecil 4-8-101t Willie Ryan
Has only had two runs, but looked a decent sort and well-bred. Stable has made a good start to 2004 but he has only won a Leicester maiden.
BP = 25/1
SUMMARY
Looks an open contest and with questions against most of the runners, the value is with The Whistling Teal each-way.
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