Saturday, April 10, 2004
EASTER STAKES CODEBREAKER
3.10pm Kempton, Saturday, April 10, 2004
£35,000 alanbrazilracing.com Easter Stakes 1m
Going Good to soft
Past Trends
15 of the last 16 winners were making their seasonal debut
14 of the last 16 winners won as two-year-olds
13 of the last 16 winners ran between two and six times as two-year-olds
12 of the last 16 winners have won or been placed over seven furlongs or further
The Listed alanbrazilracing.com Easter Stakes at Kempton is the first trial for the initial British classic, the UltimateBet.com 2000 Guineas, at Newmarket in early May.
The contest rarely throws up a serious candidate for the Guineas and last year's winner Prince Tum Tum did not race again.
15 of the last 16 winners were making their seasonal debut in the Easter Stake. The one exception was 1997 hero Pelham, who had already been seen on a racecourse once that term.
Divine Gift is discarded but he has already run this year, winning on his only start.
Herodotus, who won this contest two years ago, and Lucky Lindy, successful in 1992, were the only winners of the Easter Stakes not to have been successful during their juvenile career.
Gravardlax did not get his head in front last year and looks to have it to do.
Over the last 16 runnings, 13 winners ran between two and six times as two-year-olds. The three anomalies were Herodotus (making his debt), Pelham and Right Win in 1993. Therefore, Codebreaker must discard Barbajuan because he appeared seven times last seson.
13 of the last 16 winners have won or been placed over seven furlongs or further, which is a good indication that a horse will stay the mile trip of the Jubilee Course here.
Nero’s Return has won twice at six furlongs and is unbeaten but gets the boot because he does not meet the criteria above.
There are now three remaining to consider. Trainer John Gosden, responsible for Privy Seal, has yet to win this race while John Dunlop, trainer of Mutahayya, and Richard Hannon, Psychiatrist’s handler, have dominated.
John Dunlop took the 1994 renewal courtesy of Ultimo Imperatore as well as the last two runnings with Prince Tum Tum and Flat Spin.
Hannon has taken five of the last 16 runnings - Lucky Lindy, Right Win, Two O'Clock Jump in 1995, Regiment the following term and Pelham.
It is difficult to split Mutahayya and Psychiatrist but the former is just preferred as he has steadily moved up in distance whereas Psychiatrist raced over six furlongs last time, something which would be unusual as far as Easter Stakes winners go.
For old articles (from 1st March 2000) go to the Newslink
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