Saturday, April 26, 2003
THE VALUE BETTING COLUMN EVERY SATURDAY
3.30pm Sandown, April 26 2003
£150,000 attheraces Gold Cup Chase Showcase Handicap (Class A), Grade 3 (5yo+), (3m 5f 110yds)
GOING: Good, good to firm in places
1) 24U8 Foxchapel King Mouse Morris IRE 10-11-12 David Casey
Classy performer on his day, as when landing Grade One chases at Down Royal and Leopardstown last season, but has not looked at his best this season with just one win in a minor event Fairyhouse. Goes on the ground, although probably prefers some cut and looks harshly handicapped on the balance on his form. Topweights have a poor record in this race.
BP = 25/1 Tote, William Hill
2) 1122 Stormez Martin Pipe 6-10-12t Tony McCoy
Has been a credit to connections throughout the season, never running a bad race. Will stay the trip and will go on the ground, although he continues to go up in the handicap. Had a hard race when a close second in the Scottish Grand National a fortnight ago and this will be his 12th start of the season. Will probably put up another bold show, but is not value.
BP = 6/1 Tote
3) 233U Ad Hoc Paul Nicholls 9-10-10 Ruby Walsh
Won the corresponding race two years ago on heavy ground. Had his campaign geared towards the Martell Grand National year, running in novice hurdles for the first half of the season. Was some way back when unseating his rider at the 19th at Aintree and it is hard to know what to make of that run. Goes on this ground and the stable is in tremendous form but his odds do not appear overly generous.
BP = 6/1 Ladbrokesl
4) 1-0P Bounce Back Martin Pipe 7-10-08 Tom Scudamore
An impressive winner of this race last season off of a favourable mark but has run dismally on his two starts this season in the Hennessy and Welsh National. Comes here fresh, but has been deserted by Tony McCoy and looks hard to support..
BP = 8/1 Coral, Ladbrokes, Tote
5) P5U8 Iznogoud Martin Pipe 7-10-08 Barry Fenton
Was a good novice last season but has not reproduced that form since and is best watched. Ran twice at this year’s Cheltenham Festival without distinction.
BP = 28/1 Ladbrokes
6) 1/1F Killusty Charles Egerton 9-10-07 Norman Williamson
Has won seven of his ten starts to date and looked an exciting chasing prospect two seasons ago. Missed last season due to injury but made a triumphant return at Sandown on March 8. Was well supported for the Martell Grand National but didn’t jump well and eventually fell at the 22nd (was still just in contention). Could be open to more improvement to come and if the forecast rain arrives, he might have a chance but his odds offer no value.
BP = 13/2 William Hill
7) P80U The Bunny Boiler Noel Meade 9-10-07 Mick Fitzgerald
Won the Irish Grand National last season but has paid the price for that victory this season and has looked to be handicapped up to the hilt. Will stay but would prefer some cut in the ground and is often a far from a fluent jumper. Others make more appeal.
BP = 25/1 Coral, Ladbrokes
8) 3013 Spendid Alan King 11-10-05 Robert Thornton
Veteran performer but still capable of decent form over hurdles and fences. Won a fair handicap chase at Doncaster earlier in the season and ran well last time when third in the Scottish Grand National. Stays and likes good ground. Has a chance at decent odds.
BP = 18/1 Coral
9) 47P5 Whitenzo Paul Nicholls 7-10-03 Barry Geraghty
Something of an underachiever and can be let down by his jumping. Was running well in the early part of the season and showed signs of a return to form last time at Aintree. Stable in great form and interesting jockey booking.
BP = 16/1 Ladbrokes, Tote
10) 4262 Frosty Canyon Paul Webber 10-10-02v Tom Doyle
Quite consistent but slightly quirky and an infrequent winner. Has always looked as if he has a decent handicap in him and ran well in the Grade Two Long Distance Hurdle at Ascot last time out. He is on a handy weight here and should run his race over a trip which should suit him.
BP = 8/1 Tote, Ladbrokes
11) -P25 Montifault Paul Nicholls 8-10-01 Joe Tizzard
Has come back to form this season and ran well for a long way when fifth in the Martell Grand National last time, when his stamina seemed to run out. Will be more at home over this trip and relishes good ground. Has a good chance for his in-form stable, providing his Aintree exertions have not taken their toll. Good value.
BP = 10/1 Coral
12) 752U Gunther McBride Philip Hobbs 8-10-01 Richard Johnson
Is another contender who will like the ground and was still in contention when falling two from home in the Scottish Grand National. However, he has always looked at home on flat tracks so Sandown may not be ideal for him. No value.
BP = 13/2 William Hill, Coral
13) 9-10 Royal Predica Martin Pipe 9-10-00t (9-13) Rodi Greene
Made a winning reappearance in the Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival before running down the field in the Martell Grand National. Good jumper, who stays well and goes on good ground. Would have a chance at his best but has never been the most consistent performer.
BP = 14/1 Tote
14) 0-PF Burlu Martin Pipe 9-10-00b (9-11)
French import who has shown little on his two starts in Britain and looks best watched.
BP = 80/1 William Hill
15) P46P Carryonharry Martin Pipe 9-10-00 (9-09)
NON-RUNNER
16) PR11 Moving Earth Tony Carroll 10-10-00 (9-03) Noel Fehily
Won a good handicap chase on this card last year but the level of form he showed when winning two claiming hurdles on his last two starts this year suggests he is not up to winning this, as well as being unproven over the trip.
BP = 100/1 William Hill
17) 4211 Keltic Heritage Luke Dace 9-10-00t (8-03) Timmy Murphy
Game winner of a fair novices chase at Cheltenham last time. Likes the ground and decent jockey booked but very hard to fancy here from almost 2st out of the handicap.
BP = 40/1 Coral, Ladbrokes
SUMMARY
A fascinating contest as usual, but there are only a very few who are any value and MONTIFAULT seems the best of them - lightly-raced, in form, from a stable that is winning everything and racing off a light weight.
GOOD LUCK
SMITH STABLE STAR SET FOR PUNCHESTOWN
Ibal, winner of his last four starts over fences, bids for his biggest success to date at Punchestown on Thursday in the Grade 1 Swordlestown Cup Novice Chase over two miles.
Dina Smith’s charge, who won the Sunderlands Imperial Cup in 2001 over hurdles, was most recently successful at Sandown when beating the Queen’s First Love on March 8.
“If the ground is going to be soft or softer we’ll be there - we could have run at Sandown on Friday but we’ve just hung on,” said Smith.
“He’s come out of his last run in fine form and he’s better having a break between his races. We’ve just waited for the ground really - he shines when it’s very soft.”
Possible rivals in the Swordlestown Cup include the Henrietta Knight-trained Impek, the Paul Nicholls-trained Le Roi Miguel and a strong team of home-trained rivals.
The JCB Triumph Hurdle winner Spectroscope looks set to contest the Grade 1 IAWS Champion Four Year Old Hurdle, in which other entries include Paul Nicholls’ duo Sporazene and Bal De Nuit, Nicky Henderson’s Nas Na Riogh, and the likes of Triumph Hurdle third Golden Cross, Kenilworth and Mutineer.
There are 34 entries for the Quinns of Baltinglass Chase for the La Touche Cup, the unique event over Punchestown’s bank course. Those entered include Mely Moss, the 2000 Martell Cognac Grand National runner-up.
Sacundai, who beat the Smurfit Champion Hurdle winner Rooster Booster in the Martell Cognac Aintree Hurdle last time out, heads the entries for the Grade 1 Ballymore Properties Champion Stayers Hurdle as he bids to maintain his unbeaten run this season.
The Irish National Hunt Festival, with record prize money of over 1.6 million euros, runs next week from Tuesday, April 29, to Friday, May 2.
PRIZE FOR BEST-DRESSED LADY
Wednesday is Ladies’ Day at Punchestown and the locally-based Newbridge Silver is offering a voucher worth 1,500 euros to the best-dressed lady.
Advanced ticket sales for this year’s Irish National Hunt Festival are very strong. All corporate hospitality on Wednesday has now sold out and there is very limited availability left on Tuesday, Thursday and Friday.
Saturday, April 26, 2003
3.30pm £150,000 ATTHERACES GOLD CUP 3m 5f 110yds
Past Trends
all of the last 16 winners were placed in the first two at least once earlier in the campaign
15 of the last 16 winners started at 14/1 or below
14 of the last 16 winners were aged between seven and 10-years-old
14 of the last 16 winners carried 10st 10lb or less to victory
11 of the last 16 winners were placed in the first three on their last start
Following Codebreaker’s success with Prince Tum Tum in the Listed McKeever St Lawrence Easter Stakes at Kempton last Saturday, hopefully the good news can be continued in this switch back in codes in one of the best jumps race of the season, the £150,000 Attheraces Gold Cup at Sandown.
Since 1987 all of the 16 winners of the three mile, five and a half furlongs handicap chase were placed in the first two at least once earlier in the campaign.
Of this year’s contestants, Burlu failed to finish on his two outings, while last year’s hero Bounce Back, Iznogoud and Whitenzo have all failed to find a top two finish this term and this quartet are therefore discounted.
14 of the last 16 winners were aged between seven and 10-years-old. The two exceptions were Mr Frisk, who was 11 when was successful in 1990, and Bounce Back, who was only six.
Stormez is considered too young to win at six if past trends are correct, while at the other end of the age spectrum Spendid appears too old at 11.
Horses in the lower reaches of the weights have tended to do best. Only Desert Orchid (11st 11lb) in 1988 and Life Of A Lord (11st 10lb), victorious in 1996, have carried more than 10st 10lb to success in the last 16 years.
Irish-trained Foxchapel King has been allotted top-weight of 11st 12lb and the Mouse Morris-trained contestant is eliminated.
Good recent form seems essential to lifting the Cup. Over the last 16 renewals 11 winners finished in the first three on their last start before Sandown, including five of the last eight, with two more coming fifth and seventh.
None of Ad Hoc, Killusty, The Bunny Boiler, Gunther McBride, Royal Predica and Carryonharry managed to finish in the first seven and this sextet disappears from the reckoning.
15 of the last 16 winners started at 14/1 or below - the one exception being Ushers Island, a surprise winner for Howard Johnson at 25/1 in 1994.
Moving Earth and Keltic Heritage are both priced at 40/1 or greater with Ladbrokes which means this week’s Codebreaker has to choose between Montifault and Frosty Canyon.
Montifault was fifth in the Martell Grand National and four of the last 16 winners ran in that great chase prior to winning the attheracesgold Cup but 12 did not and therefore the Paul Webber-trained FROSTY CANYON. Is the selection.
He ran well on his last start over hurdles when the eight-length runner-up to Deano’s Beeno at Ascot earlier this month. Bounce Back ran over hurdles on his last outing before winning in 2002.
For old articles (from 1st March 2000) go to the Newslink
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