   |
|
|
Saturday, March 29, 2008
THE VALUE BETTING COLUMN EVERY SATURDAY.
Going - Fast for the best odds go to www.BritOdds.com BP= the best price at the time of writing 1) /112-3 Notional Doug OìNeill USA 4-9-00b Garrett Gomez Dual Graded dirt winner in US, who did not disgrace himself on first start on turf last time out over inadequate extended six-furlong handicap. Should improve for that outing but looks up against it on form and trainer admits that he is “looking for a miracle” and does not look good enough. BP= 66/1 2) 27541- Majestic Roi Mick Channon UK 4-8-09 Darryll Holland Took weak fillies Group One contest at Newmarket at end of last season, but did win Group Three Guineas trial on seasonal debut last season. Trainer feels filly has improvement in her, but she looks up against it on first start against colts and best left. BP= 25/1 3) 24-322 Floral Pegasus Tony Cruz HK 5-9-00t Gerald Mosse Group One winner in Hong Kong and has bumped into two outstanding colts on last two starts. Veteran jockey delighted with inside draw and form of horse, but has never raced outside of Hong Kong. BP= 16/1 4) 42-116 Seachange Robert Manning NZ 6-8-09 Ted Durcan Multiple Group One winner in native New Zealand and very consistent sort. Disappointed on Nad al Sheba debut when folding tamely under pressure. The mare will have improved for that appearance. BP= 25/1 5) 433-21 Admire Aura Hiroyoshi Matsuda JP 4-9-00 Katsumi Ando Group Two winner in native Japan, which is usually a very good international yardstick, and last year’s winner Admire Moon also won same race before triumphing here for same trainer and jockey combination. Will be settled towards the rear and come with a late run, so will enjoy the good early pace set by Jay Peg or possibly Creachadoir, but will need luck in running to prevail in a maximum field. BP= 10/1 6) 21865- Finsceal Beo Jim Bolger IRE 4-8-09 Kevin Manning Form tailed off last season, but English and Irish Guineas winner previously and was close second behind Darjina in the French equivalent. Best run of last season came on seasonal bow and deserves a second chance against the boys. Looks well and has impressed in track work-outs, but will need to be at her best to kick off the front of this field and fillies have never triumphed in this race. BP= 12/1 7) 755-01 Archipenko Mike De Kock SA 4-9-00tb Kevin Shea Coolmore cast-off who was an eye-catching winner of a Group Two contest over a mile here in February, running on well from mid-division. Trainer, who has won this race twice before with better charges, admits that the horse has had problems, but will be an interesting contender if early pace is not too strong. BP= 16/1 8) 209-21 Niconero David Hayes AUS 7-9-00e/s Craig Williams Consistent sort who has been successful twice in Group One company in Australia, including most recent start on March 1. Another who will sit and wait out the back, but need luck in finding the splits in the home straight and has flopped on his only other appearance outside of Australia. BP= 25/1 9) 26142- Creachadoir Saeed Bin Suroor UAE 4-9-00 Kerrin McEvoy Good level of form for Jim Bolger before joining Godolphin and putting in career best effort in Hong Kong Mile on last outing of last season when close second. Tough and genuine colt who has always looked better when at the head of affairs. Could slip the field if those in behind get involved in a tactical race but vulnerable to fast finishers and number one jockey has jumped ship but this is not always significant. BP= 5/1 10) 12111- Literato Saeed Bin Suroor UAE 4 9-00 Frankie Dettori Moved to Godolphin at end of last year following close second in French Derby in June and Group One victory at Newmarket in October when beating Creachadoir. Has reportedly wintered well and interesting that Frankie Dettori takes the ride. This trip could be on the short side. BP= 4/1 11) 31173- Darjina Alain De Royer-Dupre 4-8-09 Christophe Soumillon Superstar last season, winning French 1,000 Guineas before beating older colts in Group One contest at Longchamp in September. Interesting stepped up a furlong, which should suit her patient style of running and reverse Hong Kong placings with Creachadoir, but trainer not convinced that filly will be fully wound up on first start of campaign. BP= 6/1 12) 8340-6 Vodka Katsuhiko Sumii JP 4-8-09 Yutaka Take Japanese Group One winner over three furlongs further and best to ignore final start (stumbled at start). Trainer has won at the highest level in both Australia and the US, but filly has looked ill at ease in Dubai (lost weight) and has been working on the dirt course. Another who will probably be waited with and could meet traffic. BP= 11/1 13) 755-13 Bullish Luck Tony Cruz HK 9-9-00b Brett Prebble Fifth in the 2006 Dubai Duty Free and third in last year's Dubai World Cup, so will feel at home here. Form this year is solid, but not spectacular and perhaps lacks the gears he possessed in his younger days. Trainer concerned about wide draw, and rates stablemate as a bigger challenger. BP= 25/1 14) 58-632 Jay Peg Herman Brown SA 5-9-00b Anton Marcus Dual Group One scorer in native South Africa and has performed creditably this season, finishing behind Lord Admiral in Group Two contest on March 6. Working well and trainer expects good run, but could be forced to make the pace form a wide draw, which will set the race up nicely for the rest of the field. BP= 66/1 15) 21-131 Lord Admiral Charles OìBrien IRE 7-9-00b Michael Kinane Admirable performer who took beat Jay Peg here on latest appearance. Drawn on the inside on that occasion and enjoyed got the splits that day, but will struggle from a wide berth against some street-wise animals. Trainer admits horse is running for in hope than expectation. BP= 50/1 16) 491-14 Linngari Herman Brown SA 6-9-00 Ryan Moore Second in this race last year (from same draw) and earned rave reviews after demolition job under top weight in handicap earlier this year before being undone by slow pace when behind Archipenko and Lord Admiral. Has better form credentials than stablemate and stronger pace will suit, but will need the breaks from a car park draw. BP= 20/1 SUMMARY Admire Aura represents good value and has a similar profile to last year's winner.
Saturday, March 29, 2008 RACE 2 GODOLPHIN MILE - SPONSORED BY ETISALAT 1600M(a8F) Dirt (TB) Non-Runners No 7 Aleutian RACE 3 UAE DERBY - SPONSORED BY SAEED & MOHAMMED AL NABOODAH 1800M(a9F) Dirt (TB) Non-Runners No 5 Rock Ascot No 10 Zain Alma Aenee, RACE 6 DUBAI WORLD CUP - SPONSORED BY EMIRATES 2000M(a10F) Dirt (TB) Non-Runners No 3 Happy Boy For old articles (from 1st March 2000) go to the Newslink Archive |
©Racenews |