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Saturday, March 31, 2007
VALUE BETTING COLUMN every Saturday Nad Al Sheba, Saturday, March 31, 2007 3.15pm UK time (6.15pm local time), US$2 million UAE DERBY (Group Two), 1m 1f (Dirt) GOING: Dirt - standard/fast for the best odds go to www.BritOdds.com BP= the best price at the time of writing 1)(1) 14(1)65-(3)(3) RALLYING CRY Saeed bin Suroor3-8-09 Ted Durcan Useful Polytrack winner who performed creditably without troubling the principals in European Group One events last term, especially when four lengths behind Teofilo when sixth in the Dewhurst at Newmarket No match for Asiatic Boy in two Dubai starts this year but could do a bit better . BP= 33/1 2)(2) 46- JACK JUNIOR Brian Meehan 3-8-09 Richard Hills Maiden who finished under four lengths sixth to Thousand Words in a seven-furlong Newmarket Group Three in September. Needs to improve considerably for his dirt debut and is not guaranteed to relish the extra distance but has apparently wintered well and is highly regarded by his shrewd trainer. BP= 33/1 3)(3) 3(1)31-5 JOE LOUIS Ian Jory 4-9-04t Mick Kinane Won two of his starts last year and took the Argentine Guineas over a mile on heavy going last term. Not far behind Asiatic Boy on his South American form but was well beaten by that rival on his Dubai debut. Missed the break that day and trainer has a good record here so cannot be totally discounted.. BP= 66/1 4)(4) (1)(1)-(4) DAY PASS Saeed bin Suroor 3-8-09t Garrett Gomez Unbeaten Grade Three winner over a mile as a juvenile in the US. Ran too freely and was ultimately disappointing on his Dubai debut when fourth behind Asiatic Boy over the course and distance last time. No surprise if he improves on that. BP = 20/1 5)(5) (1)5-(3)(2) VICTORY TETSUNI Hideyuki Mori 3-8-09 Yutake Take A winner over an extended six furlongs in November before running fifth in a Japanese Grade One on his final start at two. Decent effort when runner-up in the Al Bastakiya over the course and distance last time but has seven lengths to find with the easy winner Asiatic Boy. BP= 20/1 6)(6) 110-(2)(2) TRAFFIC GUARD Stan Moore 3-8-09 John Egan Won first two juvenile starts in Britain over six furlongs before finishing ninth in the Group One Darley Dewhurst Stakes over a furlong further in October. Runner-up to Asiatic Boy on both starts in Dubai this year. It will be a major shock if that form is reversed but he is a useful performer and should appreciate this extra furlong. BP= 33/1 7)(7) (3)2-(1)(1) BARTOLA Juan Carlos Maldotti 4-9-00 Pablo Falero Top-class South American filly who is unbeaten in two starts on dirt this year. Has a bit to find with Folk on a strict line through Samba Reggae but easily captured a Group One at Palermo on March 3, and could be anything. BP = 50/1 8)(8) 6(1)(1)-(1)(2)(3) GREETINGS Pedro Nickel Filho 4-9-00 Richard Mullen Brazilian Group Three winner over 10 furlongs. Won well on Dubai debut in a seven-furlong race here in January but no match for Folk in two subsequent outings. Others preferred. BP= 50/1 9)(9) 50-(1) SEAL POINT Christian Wroe 3-8-9 Paul Eddery Showed promise in two decent maidens in England last season before breaking his duck in fine style over an extended seven furlongs on turf at Nad Al Sheba. Surface and step up in trip are unknowns. Has a lot to find on the book but seems progressive. BP= 100/1 10)(10) 212-(1)(1)(1) ASIATIC BOY Mike De Kock 4-9-04 Weichong Marwing Unbeaten and never extended in three starts at the Dubai Racing Carnival this year including a seven-length romp in the Al Bastakiya over the course and distance last time. Seems to be still progressing and trainer and jockey know what it takes to win on World Cup night. Will be hard to beat but is a very short price. BP= 10/11 11)(11) (0)(2)(1)-(1)(1) FOLK Saeed bin Suroor 3-8-05 Kerrin McEvoy Proved herself the best three-year-old filly in Dubai this year with smooth wins in the UAE 1,000 Guineas and Oaks. Connections have a great record in this race and the fact that they have opted to pitch her in against the colts means that she must be respected. Strong claims especially receiving weight from the principals.. BP= 5/1 12)(12) (2)-(1)(1)(1) ADIL Julio Gardel 3-8-09 Kent Desormeaux Saudi raider who has won three of four starts over seven furlongs and a mile. Difficult to know what he has achieved so far but cannot be totally dismissed . BP= 66/1 13)(13) (2)(1)(1)(1)-(1) EU TAMBEM 4-9-04 Frankie Dettori Landed an Argentine Group One over an extended mile and a half last season. Scored an eye-catching five-length victory over older rivals in the 10-furlong Group Two Maktoum Challenge Round II at the track last time. Slight doubt about the drop back in trip but should have the class to cope. Leading contender. BP= 4/1 SUMMARY Asiatic Boy is a powerhouse of a horse who has never been troubled in three victories at Nad Al Sheba but he has yet to meet Folk or Eu Tamben He is poor value while the Godolphin pair are meant to be as good as each other. Therefore the value is with the longest-priced one - FOLK each way. GOOD LUCK END For old articles (from 1st March 2000) go to the Newslink Archive |
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