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Saturday, March 3, 2007
THE VALUE BETTING COLUMN every Saturday KELSO, SATURDAY, MARCH 3, 2007 3:55pm £45,000 Ashleybank Investments Scottish Borders National, 4m GOING: SOFT, HEAVY IN PLACES for the best odds go to www.BritOdds.com BP= the best price at the time of writing 1) 34111P KILBEGGAN BLADE Tom George 8-11-12 Mr Shane Byrne (7) Progressive ex-Irish stayer who landed the hat-trick in impressive style over an extended three and a half miles at Haydock in January, but disappointed at the same track last time out when pulled up in the Red Square Vodka Gold Cup on February 17. Has a bit to prove after that flop and a watching brief is advised off top-weight. BP= 12/1 2) P-P342 KEEPATEM Jonjo OìNeill 11-10-13 Tony McCoy Useful three-mile plus performer at his best, whose finest hour came when taking the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Leopardstown in 2004 - the last time he ended up in the winner’s enclosure. Mainly disappointing since but ran better the last twice, decent second to the well-handicapped Nozic at Uttoxeter last time, and has a place chance here if he stays. BP= 9/2 3) 23-213 NUMERO UN DE SOLZEN James Ewart 6-10-13 Gary Berridge (3) Lightly-raced novice who was a fortunate victor at Newcastle in January, capitalising on Cloudy Lane’s last fence blunder, before a good third in a handicap here last month over an extended two miles and six furlongs. Has a progressive profile but lack of experience is a point. BP= 5/1 4) -64115 SHARP BELLINE Sue Smith 10-10-12 David OìMeara Showed that three miles on testing ground were no problem when scoring at Haydock in December, however he was disappointing last time out when beaten a distance in the Sky Bet Chase at Southwell on January 27. Usually a reliable sort but this is a tough ask off his highest ever mark and he is likely to find a few too good. BP= 16/1 5) 244113 MASTER SEBASTIAN Lucinda Russell 8-10-10 Peter Buchanan Comes here in fine form, scoring twice in January at Ayr and Newcastle and a staying on third last time out over two and a half miles at Carlisle under top weight. Needs to take another step forward in this company but is only eight and he could defy his highest-ever mark if he stays this trip. BP= 20/1 6) 1F-4P5 ROSIE REDMAN Jim Turner 10-10-10 Tony Dobbin Three-time scorer at Kelso over fences up to three and a half miles and also acts on softish ground. Not in the best of form so far this season, but could be on the way as she was fifth here last time behind Whereareyounow on February 15 over an inadequate trip. She has been dropped 5lb for that and is 8lb better off with the third Numero Un De Solzen for 22 lengths. She could be the surprise package in the race. BP= 13/2 7) P-P114 BANG AND BLAME Mick Easterby 11-10-08 Michael McAlister (3) Likes to race from the front and just lasted out over three and a half miles at Catterick two runs back. Beaten a long way last time at Carlisle on February 19, tiring badly once headed in that seven-runner event, and will need to return to earlier form to stand any chance in this better race. BP= 16/1 8) P-P573 YOUR A GASSMAN Ferdy Murphy 9-10-05b Graham Lee Looked highly promising as a novice, landing an easy success at Kelso in December 2004, but never really recovered from a nasty experience in the Feltham Novices’ Chase at Kempton on his next run, when he was badly hampered and unseated his rider. Better effort last time at Haydock and he is racing off his lowest mark for a long time. But he he has failed over this trip on a number of occasions. BP= 12/1 9) 7-61FU HARLOV Andrew Parker 12-10-05p Richard McGrath Reaching the veteran stage now, although still capable of useful form, as when winning here on quick going in May. Has form on testing ground but has failed to complete the last twice, most recently when unseating here in a hunter chase last month, and it is difficult to see him bettering his fourth in this race two years ago off a similar mark. BP= 33/1 10) 1-P2U2 BELLANEY JEWEL John Quinn 8-10-00 Dougie Costello (3) Decent second to See You There at Carlisle last month, staying on well over three and a half miles to suggest that this trip should be no problem. Has won at Kelso before and with not many miles on the clock she is open to progress and looks to have a sound chance. Trainer in form. BP= 13/2 11) 84P121 LUCKY NELLERIE Ferdy Murphy 8-10-00 Paddy McDonald (5) Shrewd trainer has not wasted any time in sending him over fences and looks to have a bright future as a staying chaser, notching his second victory in decisive fashion at this track on January 28 over three and a half miles. This trip should hold no fears and he looks a grand prospect off this sort of weight. BP= 4/1 SUMMARY This a fascinating race. The two mares Rosie Redman and Bellaney Jewel both could bounce back to form over this trip on the testing ground but Lucky Nellerie has a very progressive profile and is excellent value at 4/1.
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