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Saturday, March 17, 2007
VALUE BETTING COLUMN every Saturday Lingfield, Saturday, March 17, 2007 4.25pm £18,000 totesport.com Handicap 1m 2f Polytrack GOING (Polytrack): Standard for the best odds go to www.BritOdds.com BP= the best price at the time of writing 1) (11) 6-5812 Impeller Stan Moore 8-9-04 Liam Keniry Has yet to prove that he really likes this surface. He has won once from eight starts on it - in a claimer last year - and this is a much tougher proposition off top-weight in a competitive handicap. But he is fit from racing in Dubai four times - first on dirt and then on turf on which surface his best run came. BP= 8/1 2)(9) 91609- Plum Pudding Richard Hannon 4-9-00 Richard Hughes He won a couple of mile handicaps at Newmarket last year on turf before getting too high in the handicap. Beaten a short-head in a median auction maiden on his only start on the all-weather in May last year at Kempton when rated 74. Now on 95 and steps up to 10 furlongs for the first time. Has not run for a while. BP= 11/1 3)(8) 20907- Counsel’s Opinion Chris Wall 10-9-00 George Baker Acts well on this surface,, having won three of six starts. Handicapper has given him a chance by dropping the 10-year-old to 95 from 102 compared to his last run on the Polytrack in the Group Three Winter Derby last year when a close seventh after troubled run. The big question is whether he will be fit enough, having not run since October 6. BP= 8/1 4)(6) 1-2035 Speedy Sam Karl Burke 4-8-12 Andrew Elliott (3) NON-RUNNER 5)(13) 05-099 Boo Karl Burke 5-8-11 Pat Cosgrave Fit from racing in Dubai where he was well beaten in three runs on turf and dirt. Has won three from 11 on the all-weather but all his wins have come at Wolverhampton. BP=25/1 6)(5) 2-4175 Fusili Nick Littmoden 4-8-11 James Doyle (3) He has won three times over course and distance - the latest off 91 - he is on 92 but this is a tougher race and on a line through Sri Diamond has it all to do with Counsel’s Opinion. BP= 12/1 7)(4) 1-431P Very Wise William Haggas 5-8-11 Joe Fanning Has a length to find on Fusili on earlier form, having since won, made all, here over course and distance. Had a stalls mishap last time. Must have a chance but is 6lb higher in the ratings. Poor value. BP= 100/30 8)(1) 74000- Tiger Tiger Jamie Poulton 6-8-09 Neil Callan Inconsistent - won over course and distance in January last year from Boo and the two are handicapped to dead-heat. Has not run since October. BP= 20/1 9)(3) 0650-3 Pagan Sword Amanda Perrett 5-8-07 Jim Crowley Has to be held up and often finished fast. He ran OK on his reappearance over course and distance and could do better. His form is tied into Very Wise so he is better value than that horse. BP= 8/1 10)(2) 92137- Rain Stops Play Mick Quinn 5-8-05 Chris Catlin First start on all-weather at Southwell in November was not promising but he swaps Fibresand for Polytrack and could do better - best watched. BP= 33/1 11)(10) 221-58 Happy As Larry Tim Pitt 5-8-04 Robbie Fitzpatrick Has yet to win over 10 furlongs but came close here in December but is racing off a 7lb-higher mark having won here over a mile later in the month. Has a tough task. BP= 6/1 12)(7) 5/2-25 Watamu Peter Makin 6-8-04v Eddie Ahern Lightly-raced six-year-old. Has had three runs on Polytrack, the last two over 12 furlongs. He pulls hard and will be suited by a strong pace which we should get in this race. Visored for a second time. Must have a good chance. BP= 6/1 13)(12) 061463 Tous Les Deux Peter Grayson 4-8-04 Liam Jones(3) Fairly consistent sort and ran well here over course and distance when a close third last time but is well out of the handicap. BP= 33/1 SUMMARY Counsel’s Opinion is excellent value, being an each-way price.
CODEBREAKER UTTOXETER, SATURDAY, MARCH 17, 2007 3:15pm £100,000 John Smith’s Midlands Grand National Handicap Chase, 4m 1.5f Past trends: 16 of the last 17 winners were placed in the first three at least once earlier in the campaign 15 of the last 17 winners had raced between four and eight times earlier in the campaign 15 of the last 17 winners were aged between seven and 10 13 of the last 17 winners carried 11st or less to victory 11 of the last 17 winners finished in the first three on their last outing A total of 18 runners go to post for the 2007 John Smith’s Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter, which could provide some fascinating pointers for the Aintree version in April, and Codebreaker will soon have them whittled down to more manageable levels.
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