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Saturday, March 5, 2005


THE VALUE BETTING COLUMN EVERY SATURDAY




Kelso, Scotland, Saturday, March 5, 2005

3:55pm £45,000 Ashleybank Investments Scottish Borders National Handicap Chase (0-135) 4m



Going - Soft

For the latest best odds, go to www.britodds.com
BP= best price at the time of writing

1) 0-51 Freetown 49 Len Lungo 9-11-12 Tony Dobbin
Relatively inexperienced chaser who was atalented hurdler. Stays well but has yet to try this trip.Has plenty to do off top-weight. Poor value. BP=

2) -11P Lord Jack 67 Nicky Richards 9-11-11 Brian Harding
Fair chaser - course winner - but has yet to prove himself over this trip. BP= 11/1

3) 3122 Malek 69 Keith Reveley 9-11-05 Richard McGrath
Good chaser who not run since Boxing Day. Should stay the trip but disappointed when tried over course and distance. BP= 7/1

4) 0-11 Mac’s Supreme 80 Ferdy Murphy 13-11-02 Keith Mercer(3)
Stays well and proven over trip. Has not run since December 15 and others make more appeal. BP= 10/1

5) 4511 Devil’s Run 53 J Wade 9-10-13 Jim Crowley
Likes oft ground and should stay but has not tried this trip. BP= 8/1

6) F1/4 Barryscourt Lad 16 R Woodhouse 11-10-12 Pat Buchanan(3)
Very interesting runner. Lightly-raced ex-hunter chaser who stays the distance and acts on the ground. Raced over an inadequate trip first time out and is one to keep an eye on. BP= 18/1

7) -121 Ossmoses 14 D M Forster 8-10-09 Warren Marston
Useful sort but has yet to run over this distance. This is his toughest test and he is no value. BP= 100/30

8) 3441 Harlov 22 Alan Parker 10-10-07p Mr Tom Greenall(3)
Bounced back to form at Bangor last time out - the worry is that he may this ground on the soft side. BP= 6/1

9) P325 Bob’s The Business 63 Ian Williams 11-10-02 Paul Moloney
Lightly-raced sort who should be suited by course and distance. Disappointed last time but is worth another chance. BP= 16/1

10) 2-R1 Red Rampage 18 H P Hogarth 10-10-00tb D C Costello(7)
Has had a varied career and it is still not certain whether he stays this trip but he could well do. Now a hunter chaser and must have a chance. BP= 14/1

11) -2P2 Tarbolton Moss 35 Martin Todhunter 10-10-00 P Robson
Disappointing overall form despite two seconds and need to improve to have much chance here. BP= 22/1

12)1807 Rosalyons 30 Helen O Graham 11-10-00 Miss R Davidson(7)
Won a couple of hurdles earlier in the season but chase form is not nearly as good. BP= 200/1

SUMMARY
BARRYSCOURT LAD is wonderful each-way value in a race where the horses with form are at too short odds. It is worth having a saver on Bob’s The Business too.



GOOD LUCK



CODEBREAKER

Doncaster Saturday, March 5, 2005

2.25pm £25,000 Totescoop6 Grimthorpe Handicap Chase 3m



Past trends

all of the last 13 winners had finished in the first two at least once earlier in the campaign

11 of the last 13 winners carried 11st 2lb or less to victory

11 of the last 13 winners had raced between three and six times earlier in the campaign

11 of the last 13 winners were aged between seven and 10

11 of the last 13 winners finished in the first two on their last outing


There have been 13 runnings of the totescoop6 Grimthorpe Chase since its distance was cut from fourmiles and half a furlong to three miles in 1989.

The three runnings that didn't take place over that period were in 1996 when the Great Yorkshire Chase, postponed from Doncaster's meeting at the end of January, took its place, in 1999 when snow forced abandonment and four years ago during the foot and mouth crisis.


Last year saw a single-figure field line-up on the day when totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup hopeful Grey Abbey was successful and it is great news that the field, this year 10 runners, is again double figures in 2005.


All of the last 13 winners had finished in the first two at least once earlier in the campaign.


This means that Gingembre, Hussard Collonges, last year’s Grand National hero Amberleigh House and Tacolino are immediately discarded as none of this quartet have finished any higher than third this season.


Lower-weighted competitors have tended to do well here. Of the last 13 successful horses only Damers Cavalry, when he was victorious in 1993, and Grey Abbey did not carry 11st 2lb or less to victory - the former was able to shoulder 11st 7lb, while Grey Abbey defied top-weight of 11st 12lb.


As interesting as this statistic is, it does not assist Codebreaker in narrowing down the field as all of the remaining horses are on 11st 2lb or less.


11 of the last 13 winners had raced between three and six times earlier in the campaign - the two exceptions were Father Sky in 1997, when the six-year-old had previously run on seven occasions, and Grey Abbey, who had two earlier starts last year.


This statistic means that Run For Paddy goes as he has had only two runs this season, and Lou Du Moulin Mas joins him as he has had eight outings.


11 of the last 13 winners were aged between seven and 10. This time the anomalies are six-year-old Father Sky and Meleagris, who was 11 when successful in 1995.


Once again this trend does not help Codebreaker as the remaining six are all aged between seven and nine.


11 of the last 13 winners finished in the first two on their last outing. This eliminates Kock De La Vesvre, Little Big Horse and Black Frost.

This leaves THE MANSE BRAE, the bottom-weight trained by Malcolm Jefferson, as this week’s Codebreaker selection and his chance is reinforced as he qualifies for the next trend - 11 of the last 13 winners had their last outing in the same year as the totescoop6 Grimthorpe Chase.

For old articles (from 1st March 2000) go to the Newslink Archive

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