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Saturday, March 19, 2005


THE VALUE BETTING COLUMN EVERY SATURDAY




NEWCASTLE, SATURDAY, MARCH 19, 2005



GOING: HEAVY

2.10pm £10,500 cantorspreadfair.com Handicap Hurdle 2m

For the latest best odds, go to www.britodds.com

BP= the best price available at the time of writing

1) 34P Crazy Horse 63 Len Lungo 12 11-12 G Berridge(5)
He has not been sparkling and needs further anyway. BP= 12/1

2) 1425 Alam 14 Peter Monteith 6 11-10 P Robson
Comes back to hurdling after novice chasing but is racing off a relatively high mark. BP= 16/1

3) -064 Nowell House 15 Mick Easterby 9 11-5 Mr T Greenall(3)
Hampered last time but ran his best race for a long time at Doncaster on much faster ground. This going may be against him. BP= 14/1

4) 2-P4 Crystal Gift 9 A C Whillans 13 11-0 Mr E Whillans(7)
Has been running over further and seems badly treated. BP= 40/1

5) 667P Eastern Tribute 7 A C Whillans 9 11-0 K Renwick
Has been running poorly but has at least won over course, distance and ground in the past. BP= 40/1

6) 11 Dont Call Me Derek 32 J J Quinn 4 10-9 R Garritty
Has won a couple of juvenile hurdles well but thi is a considerable step up and he is worth opposing at the price. BP= 11/10

7) 4665 Turn Of Phrase 42 Richard Fahey 6 10-8 P Whelan(3)
Inconsistent sort who needs better ground. BP= 16/1

8) 9548 Merryvale Man 7 Kariana Key 8 10-5 O Nelmes(5)
Well beaten in most of his races. BP= 14/1

9) 4111 Torkinking 23 Maurice Barnes 6 10-3t J Crowley
Progressive sort who has won his last three races. Makes all. Hasgone upin the handicap but looks the main form chance. BP= 100/30

10) 7-63 Baby Gee 15 D W Whillans 11 10-0 P Buchanan(3)
Fair sort at best - ran a better race last time out and will appreciate this very soft going. The value each-way. Trainer has his horses in good form. BP= 10/1

SUMMARY
Baby Gee is the clear value each-way in a poor race.



SATURDAY, MARCH 19, 2005

2.35pm Uttoxeter £100,000 John Smith’s Midlands Grand National Handicap Chase 4m 1.5f




Past trends

all of the last 15 winners were placed in the first three at least once earlier in the campaign

14 of the last 15 winners had raced between four and eight times earlier in the campaign

13 of the last 15 winners were aged between seven and 10

11 of the last 15 winners carried 11st or less to victory

10 of the last 15 winners finished in the first three on their last outing


There are 18 declared runners for the big jump race on Saturday, March 19, the John Smith’s Grand National Handicap Chase at Uttoxeter and Codebreaker will soon have them whittled down to more manageable levels.


All of the last 15 winners of the John Smith’s Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter had finished in the first three at least once earlier in the campaign.


Of this year’s 18 runners, we can immediately discard Jurancon II, Shotgun Willy, Gingembre and Arctic Jack.


13 of the last 15 winners were aged between seven and 10, which means that 11-year-old Just Maybe and the 13-year-old Mac’s Supreme get the chop.


Weight has also been a significant factor, with the higher weights having problems - 11 of the last 15 winners carried 11st or less to victory, including nine of the most recent 11 successful horses.


Stormez and D’Argent are the remaining ones with 11st or more and drop out of contention.


14 of the last 15 winners had raced between four and eight times earlier in the campaign. None of the horses still under consideration are over-raced but Philson Run, Howdydoody and Heroic have not appeared more than three times and are put to one side.


10 of the last 15 winners finished in the first three on their last outing which means Codebreaker can hone down the rest to just Bathwick Annie, Lord Who, Toulouse Lautrec and Fields Of Home.


11 of the last 15 winners had also scored earlier in this season which means that Fields Of Home, from the in-form pairing of trainer Howard Johnson and jockey Graham Lee, is dismissed from the reckoning.


There are still three going forward and separating these is not easy but eight of the last 10 winners had their previous outing over more than three and a half miles and the only one who still qualifies is the Tom George TOULOUSE LAUTREC who won over three miles and six and a half furlongs at Exeter.

For old articles (from 1st March 2000) go to the Newslink Archive

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