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Saturday, February 25, 2006



THE VALUE BETTING COLUMN EVERY SATURDAY

SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 25, 2006

NEWCASTLE



Going: Heavy
for the best odds go to www.BritOdds.com
BP= the best price at the time of writing


3pm £8,500 totesport.com Handicap Hurdle (0-135) 2m



1) -85P Benbyas D Carroll 9-11-12 Jason Levins(5)
Front runner who has yet to hit top form - coming back to two miles which will suit but heavy ground and the fact that he is top of the handicap are not helpful. BP= 20/1

2)1361 Texas Holdem M Smith -11-10 M J McAlister(5)
In good form this season but does not appreciate really heavy ground like he faces today. Has more to do after winning a Catterick handicap hurdle last month. BP= 11/1

3) 2-0F Dont Call Me Derek J J Quinn 5-11-10 Graham Lee
Course and distance winner. Look to be winning when came to grief two out at Musselburgh. Jumping is sloppy and is no value at this price. BP= 11/4

4) 013P Torkinking Maurice Barnes 7-11-09t Ben Orde-Powlett(7)
Made all over course and distance last season to beat Don’t Call Me Derek a length and a quarter. 5lb worse off without rider’s allowance - with it 2lb better off. Saddle slipped last time. Must have a decent chance. BP= 4/1

5) 6461 Overstrand Robert Gray -11-09b Tony Dobbin
Recent Market Rasen winner - held by Torkinking on earlier Carlisle running. BP= 12/1

6) U2P0 Andre Chenier Peter Monteith 5-11-0 Timmy Murphy
Has not shown much this season except when second on good ground at Catterick. Interesting jockey booking. BP= 14/1

7) 36/P Cita Verda Peter Monteith 8-10-13 K Renwick
Off the course for a long time before his recent poor run. BP= 33/1

8) 0415 Culcabock Lucinda Russell 6-10-12 P Buchanan(3)
Fair performer at best but was beaten a long way last time out. BP=25/1

9) F22 Double Vodka Chris Grant 5-10-10 Richard McGrath
Novice who is running in a handicap for the first time. Has yet to prove he acts on heavy ground. This is his toughest task. BP= 4/1

10) 95F4 Brave Vision Alistair Whillans 10-10-07 E Whillans(7)
In and out performer who may not be at his best on heavy ground. BP= 20/1

11) 5259 Uptown Lad R Johnson 7-10-00p Kenny Johnson
An interesting runner as he loves heavy ground and two miles. Can go well off bottom weight
BP= 8/1

Summary

TORKINKING is in form, likes course, distance and going. The only doubt is the strength of his jockey in a finish. Get on each-way.



Racing Post Chase Codebreaker

Sandown, Saturday, February 25, 2006



3.20pm £100,000 Racing Post Chase, 3m

Past trends

18 of the last 19 winners were aged between six and 11

18 of the last 19 winners had finished in the first two at least once earlier in the campaign

18 of the last 19 winners had raced between three and six times earlier in the campaign

16 of the last 19 winners carried 10st 7lb or more to victory

16 of the last 19 winners raced in January or later.




The Racing Post Chase, a valuable three-mile handicap chase, moves to Sandown today because of the redevelopment of its normal home Kempton.


Sandown is a right-handed course with tougher fences and often requires more stamina than Kempton.


However, the past trends are strong and hopefully they will work out at Sandown.


A field of 16 is due to line up on soft ground.


As far as the age of past winners goes, 18 0f the last 19 have been between six and 11. This does not help with all the runners coming within those parameters.


Good form earlier in the season is necessary, with 18 of 19 having been placed first or second - which means we can get rid of Irish Hussar, Calling Brave, Ballycassidy and Fork Lightning.


The unusual thing about the Racing Post Chase is that winners tend to come from the top of the handicap rather than the bottom of it.


16 of the last 19 winners carried 10st 7lb or more to victory and Farmer Jack last year defied top-weight of 11st 12lb.


The bottom three in the weights look vulnerable and therefore we can say goodbye to Schuh Shine, Halexy and Distant Thunder.


Horses usually have had a good preparation, with at least three previous runs but no more than six.


Tikram, Innox and Graphic Approach have only run twice so far this season and therefore are dropped from consideration.


16 of the last 19 winners raced in January or later and L’Ami and Risk Accessor fall down on this factor.

We are left with four - Lacdoudal, My Will, Iris Bleu and Ladalko.


Looking at other factors to split them, 14 of the last 19 scorers had won earlier in the season, and My Will, though placed, has not got his head in front yet.


Normally very safe jumpers succeed, with only four having fallen at some point earlier in the season.


Ladlalko came to grief at this course in January and is overlooked, meaning the choice is now between Lacdoudal and Iris Bleu.


Only two of the last 19 winners have started at above 10/1 and therefore, combined with Philip Hobbs tremendous record in the race, the selection is LACDOUDAL as Irish Bleu is a 20/1 chance.

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