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Saturday, February 18, 2006
THE VALUE BETTING COLUMN EVERY SATURDAY HAYDOCK, SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 18, 2006 Going: Heavy for the best odds go to www.BritOdds.com BP= the best price at the time of writing 3:25pm - £25,000 Casino 36 Classic Handicap Chase, 2 miles 1) 2119 Town Crier Sue Smith 11-11-12 Dominic Elsworth Lightly-raced 11-year-old who has looked better than ever this season, scoring at Newbury and Wetherby before finding the opposition too tough in the Victor Chandler Chase at Sandown earlier this month on faster ground than suits him. Should run his race but may be vulnerable on this ground giving upwards of 10lb to the field as he is racing off his highest mark. Likes to be up with the pace. BP= 9/2 2) 0671 Almaydan Richard Lee 8-11-02b Tom Doyle Returned to form at Southwell last month, beating Bleu Superbe by two and a half lengths, having looked out of sorts on his three previous starts. Gone up 6lb for that and has a tougher task here. Races up with the leaders. BP= 11/1 3) 5322 Bleu Superbe Venetia Williams 11-10-13 Alan OìKeeffe Very consistent this season, having only finished out of the first three once in six outings. Weighted to get closer to Almaydan on latest running, but has not got his head in front since November, 2003. Likes to be up with the pace or in the lead. BP= 6/1 4) U213 Roman Ark Malcolm Jefferson 8-10-13 Graham Lee Novice chaser who ran well last time over two miles at Southwell in January on ground too quick, having won over a longer trip at Ayr the time before. Should enjoy the conditions here, having scored four times on heavy going, twice at Haydock, and under a decent weight looks to have a chance. Not a lot of value though offered about this relatively inexperienced chaser. BP= 4/1 5) 0623 Kalca Mome Philip Hobbs 8-10-12 Paddy Brennan Running well this season without winning, latest when third in the valuable Victor Chandler Chase at Sandown. Handles the ground the ground well but can make mistakes and Richard Johnson seems to get on best with him. Usually held up. BP= 11/2 6) 2631 Tanikos Nicky Henderson 7-10-09 Sam Curling(5) Inconsistent but talented gelding, beating Kalca Mome by a length and a half at Warwick last month on his latest start. Could run well if on a going day but rarely runs two races the same and this is a hot contest. Used to make the running and likes to be up with the pace. BP= 5/1 7) P121 Barton Nic Paul Keane 13-10-03b Peter Buchanan(3) Evergreen 13-year-old in the form of his life, scoring by 10 lengths over this course and distance in January from Nowator on heavy ground. Today’s opposition is stronger and he has gone up 10lb for the latest success which is not working out form-wise. However, he likes the ground and is held up in his races. BP= 11/1 8) 1P2P Nowator Robert Gray 9-10-03 Alan Dempsey Finished a good second to Barton Nic on his penultimate start and 10lb better off with the winner but pulled-up last time at Southwell in the race won by Almaydan. Did win over course and distance in December and likes this course and distance. Races up with the pace. BP= 25/1 9) 4175 Sir Storm George Moore 10-10-00p Barry Keniry Decent performer who won over an extended two and a half miles on soft ground at Wetherby on Boxing Day, but some 20 lengths behind Barton Nic here last time - now 10lb better off - and a trifle inconsistent. Likes to race prominently. BP= 16/1 10) -52P Mistral De La Cour Richard Ford 6-10-00p Stephen Craine Best known for defeating Kauto Star by a short-head in a three-runner race at Exeter after that horse had fallen and been remounted. Has not won since but has some potential. He was second to Nowator over course and distance in a similar race here in December and has three lengths to make up. May have needed his last run over a longer trip. BP= 40/1 SUMMARY A very tricky race with so many ifs and buts. It would be no surprise if any of them won but a strong pace looks guaranteed and ones held up could have the advantage. Therefore, KALKA MOME is the value of the race.
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