CODEBREAKER - formerly in the Racing Post Weekender - posted every Friday
£125,000 RED SQUARE VODKA GOLD CUP HANDICAP 3m 4f 110yds,
1.40pm, Haydock, Saturday, February 18, 2006
Past Trends
There has been only one Irish-trained winner in the race's history
Only two of the past 16 winners carried 11st 7lb or more to victory
14 of the past 16 winners were aged between seven and 10
11 of 15 winners to have raced that season had already won a race prior to Haydock
Horses priced bigger than 10/1 are to be avoided
Only one mare has been successful since the inaugural running in 1968
The Red Square Vodka Gold Cup often reveals clues to some of the season's top staying races such as the Grand National, Scottish Grand National and Cheltenham Gold Cup and with £125,000 on offer, it is a prestigious contest in its own right.
This year's renewal sees 14 go to post and Codebreaker will try to unravel the clues to reveal this year's likely winner.
Irish-trained horses have a bad record in the race with the Pat Fahy-trained Nuaffe in 1995 the only successful raider from the Emerald Isle since the race was inaugurated in 1968.
Michael Hourigan and Charlie Swan have sent, respectively, A New Story and What A Native across the Irish Sea but both are immediately knocked out of calculations.
Since 1988, only two of the 16 winners carried 11st 7lb or more to victory. The progressive Eurotrek is shouldered with 11st 8lb, while Joaaci will have to emulate Shotgun Willy, successful in 2003, as the only horse in the period studied to succeed under top-weight of 11st 12lb. The pair are discounted.
In the past 16 renewals, 14 victors were aged between seven and 10. The exceptions were Forest Gunner, who took the prize as an 11-year-old last season, and the Haydock specialist Twin Oaks who was the same age when triumphant in 1991.
This means that the 13-year-old First Gold is eliminated along with the 11-year-olds, Chives, Truckers Tavern and Tyneandthyneagain.
Of the 15 winners who had raced that season, 11 managed to win a race prior to securing victory in the Red Square Vodka Gold Cup. Sir Rembrandt's second-place finish last time was his best effort this term so he is overlooked.
This leaves Double Honour, L'Aventure, Ebony Light, Model Son and Ossmoses.
The longest-priced winner of the race was Party Politics who landed the odds at 16/1 in 1993 and he is one of only three successful horses who were priced bigger than10/1.
Of those remaining, Ebony Light and L'Aventure are the only contenders likely to return a starting price of 10/1 or shorter, so Double Honour, Model Son and Ossmoses are discarded.
Splitting L'Aventure and Ebony Light is no easy task but only one mare has been successful in the race’s history - Young Ash Leaf back in1972.
So the mare L'Aventure is overlooked in favour of EBONY LIGHT.
Ginger McCain's 10-year-old gelding proved his liking for conditions when winning on heavy ground at the course in last month's three-mile Peter Marsh Chase and can reward Codebreaker followers under smart claimer Stephen Craine.
For old articles (from 1st March 2000) go to the Newslink
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