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Saturday, February 26, 2005


THE VALUE BETTING COLUMN EVERY SATURDAY




KEMPTON PARK, SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 26, 2005



GOING: SOFT

3.45pm £100,000 Racing Post Chase, 3m

For the latest best odds, go to www.britodds.com
BP= best price at the time of writing

1) 2F41 Farmer Jack Philip Hobbs 9-11-12 Richard Johnson
Put up a good performance to defeat Strong Flow and Celestial Gold last time out in the AON Chase - his first success over three miles. 8lb well in here compared to future handicaps qand is the class horse but this still looks a fairly tough task in giving weight to some very progressive types. BP= 6/1

2) 2111 Colonel Frank Brendan Powell 8-11-04 J P McNamara
One of the most exciting chasing talents around, having won his last three starts in impressive fashion. But the handicapper does not appear to have taken any chances with him - up 19lb in the ratings- and, although he has a progressive profile, he is worth taking on, especially as he has not run since December 3. BP= 6/1

3) 7U20 Redemption Nigel Twiston-Davies 10-11-03 Carl Llewellyn
Not the greatest jumper, but has run many good races in decent handicap company. However, there wasn’t much encouragement on his latest start and he has never won over three miles. BP= 33/1

4) 9457 Astonville Michael Scudamore 11-11-02v Brian Crowley
Once a fair performer in France but has shown very little in this country and seems far too high in the handicap at the moment. BP= 150/1

5) 1696 Horus Martin Pipe 10-11-01 Tom Malone (5)
Landed Edward Hanmer Chase at Haydock on reappearance but there has been little encouragement since and he is readily passed over. BP= 28/1

6) -503 Palarshan Henry Daly 7-11-01 Mark Bradburne
His career has been held up by injury, but there is no doubting his ability as he showed when winning the Grand Annual at Cheltenham in 2003. Yet to win over this far but he ran very well over 2m 5f at Cheltenham last time out and is open to further improvement. Trainer in good form. Palarshan is one to have on your side. BP= 8/1

7) 7552 Tikram Gary Moore 8-11-00 Tony McCoy
Generally consistent this season without winning. This course should suit him, although he has yet to fully demonstrate his stamina. Probably a shade too high in the weights but has the right jockey on him. BP= 14/1

8) 32U1 Tribal Venture Ferdy Murphy 7-10-13 Brian Harding
Still a novice but he won well over the course and distance last time. He will certainly stay and should act on the ground. This is his toughest test and he may be a bit high in the handicap. Poor value. BP= 8/1

9) F6-0 Iznogoud Martin Pipe 9-10-12 Tom Scudamore
Third in this race last year and races off an 8lb higher mark. Needed most recent race. Has some chance but others make more appeal. BP= 33/1

10) 1F25 See You Sometime Seamus Mullins 10-10-12 Andrew Thornton
Useful novice who is generally consistent. He found two miles five and a fast pace against him at Sandown last time, finishing well. This trip should suit and he has the right jockey - must have some chance. BP= 20/1

11) 9267 Knock Down Henry Daly 6-10-11 Robert Thornton
French import who steps up to three miles for the first time - still has something to prove. BP= 80/1

12) 1251 Gunther McBride Philip Hobbs 10-10-11 Paddy Brennan
Course specialist who won this race in 2002 and was runner-up in 2003 and 2004. Not seen out since winning at Doncaster in December but has been aimed at this race and should have an each-way chance. BP= 11/1

13) 3PFP Mondial Jack Martin Pipe 6-10-09v Tony Dobbin
Has been run abysmally of late and is impossible to fancy. BP= 50/1

14) F-U0 Scots Grey Nicky Henderson 10-10-07 Mick Fitzgerald
Course winner here last season and has often looked as though he is up to winning a decent handicap. No great encouragement on his two runs this year but the stable is in much better form now. BP= 16/1

15) 1216 Inca Trail Paul Nicholls 9-10-04b NON-RUNNER

16) 6012 Zaffamore Henrietta Knight 9-10-02 Jim Culloty
Fair handicapper at best and good effort behind progressive Bathwick Annie at Wincanton last time. However, he really needs good ground to be seen at his best and this is his toughest test. BP= 33/1

17) 3111 Banker Count Venetia Williams 13-10-01 Sam Thomas
Veteran who has been in great heart of late, registering a hat-trick at Leicester, Towcester and Kempton over shorter trips. This is a much tougher assignment but he gets in well here and cannot be dismissed. BP= 14/1

18) -221 Be My Better Half Arthur Moore IRE 10-10-00 David Casey
Irish challenger who well when last seen out at Limerick over a shorter trip at Christmas. Lightly-raced for his age and very much open to further improvement. Trainer has a good record with British raiders and one to consider. BP= 10/1

19) P-23 Run For Paddy Mark Pitman 9-10-00 Seamus Durack
Useful performer at his best and ran well at Doncaster last time out - closely matched with Tikram. BP= 25/1


SUMMARY
A very competitive renewal. PALARASHAN is good value at 8/1 while See You Sometime is worth a saver at 20/1.



GOOD LUCK


Racing Post Chase Codebreaker

Kempton, Saturday, February 26, 2005



3.45pm £100,000 Racing Post Chase, 3m

Past trends

17 of the last 18 winners were aged between six and 11

17 of the last 18 winners had raced between three and six times earlier in the campaign

17 of the last 18 winners had finished in the first two at least once earlier in the campaign

15 of the last 18 winners carried 10st 7lb or more to victory

15 of the last 18 winners raced in January or later.



Last year Marlborough, at 12, became the first of the last 18 winners not to be aged between six and 11.

During this period two six-year-olds, one seven-year-old, five eight-year-olds, two nine-year-olds, four 10-year-olds and three 11-year-olds also prevailed.


Of the 19 contestants in 2005, the Venetia Williams-trained Banker Count is immediately eliminated as he is 13.


Since Combs Ditch won the Racing Post Chase in 1987, having previously been seen on a racecourse twice that season, every subsequent scorer has raced between three and six times earlier in the same campaign.


Of the 18 remaining entries, Iznogoud, Scots Grey and Run For Paddy have all had less than three outings this term and are considered unlikely to take the honours on Saturday.

Joining them in being ruled out are Colonel Frank and Mondial Jack, a pair of runners have both run on at least seven occasions this term.


13 of the last 18 winners had scored that season but of the five exceptions, four had all finished second at least once - the one exception once again being Combs Ditch.


Astonville and Palarshan, neither of whom has finished better than third this campaign, fall down on this score and disappear from the reckoning.


The Racing Post Chase seems to favour the horses with the best form in the top half of the handicap. In the last 18 runnings, only Mudahim, on 10st 2lb in 1997, and Gunther McBride, on 10st 3lb five years later, carried less than 10st 7lb to victory.


Three remaining horses will all be carrying 10st 4lb or less on Saturday and these are discarded - Inca Trail (10st 4lb), Zaffamore (10st 2lb) and Be My Better Half (10st).


11 of the last 18 winners were good enough to finish in the first two on their last outing.


This goes against Redemption, Horus, See You Sometime and Knock Down . None of this quartet were in the first two last time.


Returning to age as has already been seen only one seven-year-old has been successful since 1987. This counts against Tribal Venture, who may have to wait another season before he can capture this prestigious prize.


Since Gary Moore took out his training licence in 1993, having previously been a fearless jump jockey, he has never won this event which knocks out Tikram.


Separating the Philip Hobbs-trained pair of FARMER JACK and Gunther McBride is a thankless task.

However, the former gets the nod as he last raced two weeks ago, while Gunther McBride has not been seen in action for 77 days. 15 of the last 18 Racing Post Chase winners raced during the January or February.

For old articles (from 1st March 2000) go to the Newslink Archive

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