Saturday, February 14, 2004
THE VALUE BETTING COLUMN EVERY SATURDAY
NEWBURY, SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 14, 2004
3.20pm £100,000 AON CHASE Three miles
GOING: GOOD
BP = for best odds go to www.BritOdds.co.uk (Click on link above)
1) 5-U1 Keen Leader Jonjo O'Neill 8-11-10 Liam Cooper
High-class novice last season, although he flopped at Cheltenham in the Royal & SunAlliance Chase. Unseated on reappearance at Chepstow before impressive performance to win the Tommy Whittle at Haydock. The clear form pick but jumping remains a little suspect and he is no value.
BP = 4/5
2) 21U6 Horus Martin Pipe 9-11-06 Jamie Moore
Won decent handicap at Ascot Christmas meeting and is a useful performer who should not be underestimated.Has taken on some of the best chasers this season, - he was second to Kingscliff and beat Behrajan at Ascot. Found two miles, five furlongs too short at Cheltenham last time and was in with every chance when unseating his rider the time before. Would be better in in a handicap but could be the surprise package in this race.
BP = 33/1
3) -46U Seebald Martin Pipe 9-11-06 Tony McCoy
Was always thought of as a two miler but was in the process of running a good race in the King George when he was badly hampered and unseated his rider. Still has to be proven at this trip.
BP = 9/1
4) U11P Shardam Nigel Twiston-Davies 7-11-06 Carl Llewellyn
Won valuable handicap at Cheltenham in November before pulling up the Hennessy. Ideally wants further than this. Makes the running which will set it up for others. Still has potential.
BP = 20/1
5) F12P Sir Rembrandt Robert Alner 8-11-06 Timmy Murphy
Impressive winner of Chepstow's Rehearsal Chase and gallant second in Welsh National before flopping badly in Pillar Property Chase at Cheltenham last month. Reported to be back to full health now but is probably still best watched here.
BP = 4/1
6) 21-P Irish Hussar Nicky Henderson 8-11-05 Marcus Foley
Developed into a very decent novice last season, finishing runner-up in the Cathcart at Cheltenham and winning Aintree's Mildmay Novices' Chase. Pulled-up on reappearance in Hennessy (said to be suffering from sore shins) in November but should go better here. However, there are still question marks.
BP = 7/2
7) 4F84 Royal Auclair Paul Nicholls 7-11-00 Ruby Walsh
Won Cathcart in 2002 for Martin Pipe but not much encouragement since, including for his new trainer this season and should be avoided especially as he is unproven over three miles.
BP = 33/1
8) /5P- Shooting Light Martin Pipe 11-11-00 Richard Johnson
Decent handicapper a couple of seasons ago but has had his problems since and is surely best left alone at present.
BP = 25/1
SUMMARY
It is worth taking on the favourite, second favourite and third favourite and the value lies with HORUS who is a very big price.
GOOD LUCK
For old articles (from 1st March 2000) go to the Newslink
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