Saturday, February 8, 2003
THE VALUE BETTING COLUMN EVERY SATURDAY
NEWBURY, SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 8, 2003
3:35PM £70,000 AON CHASE (CLASS A) GRADE 2, THREE MILES
GOING: GOOD
1) -192 Marlborough Nicky Henderson 11-11-10 Timmy Murphy
Top-class chaser at best and seems as good as ever this season, with a win in the Charlie Hall at Wetherby and an excellent second to Best Mate in the King George VI Chase at Kempton last time out. Stable in cracking form and his chance is very much respected.
BP = 9/4 Tote, William Hill
2) 11-4 Royal Auclair Martin Pipe 6-11-10 Tony McCoy
Looked most progressive last season and finished the campaign by winning the Cathcart at Cheltenham. Stamina is unproven beyond two miles and five furlongs. Fourth onseasonal reappearance at Wincanton. Has had a break and, if back to his best, it would be interesting to see how he performs but looks best watched on balance today.
BP = 14/1 Ladbrokes
3) 5-4P Supreme Glory Pat Murphy 10-11-06 Leighton Aspell
Fifth in this race last year when he was in much better form. Has looked a shadow of his former self on his two starts this season since returning from injury and cannot be fancied.
BP = 66/1 Tote, Ladbrokes, William Hill
4) -3F1 Truckers Tavern Ferdy Murphy 8-11-06t Davy Russell
Always held in high-regard by connections and came good last time when defeating Hussard Collonges in the Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock on soft ground. Was in receipt of 15lb that day and will need to improve again to win today. Does look most progressive but would ideally want softer ground over this trip.
BP = 7/2 Coral
5) -114 Valley Henry Paul Nicholls 8-11-06 Barry Geraghty
Very exciting prospect but his career has been a little hit-and-miss so far. Won easily on his first two starts at Wincanton and Sandown this season but beaten a long way out when a distant fourth in the Pillar Property Chase at Cheltenham a fortnight ago. Interesting connections are running him again here and he will be at home on this better ground.
BP = 9/2 William Hill
6) 3-22 Chives Henrietta Knight 8-11-00 Richard Guest
Won novices chases at Stratford and Wincanton last year but his best efforts have come in defeat, such as when third in the Royal & SunAlliance Chase at Cheltenham last year. Put up a brilliant effort to finish second under 11st 12lb to the progressive Mini Sensation last time out in the Welsh National. Trainer believes he is up to this class but ground could be a bit too quick for him over this trip. However the weight concession from the others and that the fact that he is progressing fast is very much in his favour.
BP = 5/2 generally
CONCLUSION:
A very interesting and tricky contest. CHIVESgets the vote because he has plenty of scope and is well treated.
GOOD LUCK
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