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Saturday, December 22, 2007



THE VALUE BETTING COLUMN every Saturday

Ascot, Saturday, December 22, 2007

1.40pm £100,000 BGC Long Walk Hurdle (Grade One) 3m 1f




GOING: GOOD TO FIRM

for the best odds go to www.BritOdds.com
BP= the best price at the time of writing


1. 1/15F2-1 Black Jack Ketchum Jonjo O’Neill 8-11-07 Tony McCoy
Very useful hurdler at his best. Things went wrong midway through the last season but he ran well on his final start. Workmanlike victory on seasonal reappearance in Grade Two company but his stable without a win for three weeks. Will enjoy the fast ground. BP= 100/30

2. 11181-6 Chief Dan George James Moffatt 7-11-07v1 Mick Fitzgerald
Moment of glory came with Grade One Hurdle victory at Aintree in April and will have come on for his seasonal debut, when well beaten in soft ground. Has still to prove himself among the big boys and application of visor could make or break him. BP= 20/1

3. 12143-1 Hardy Eustace Dessie Hughes IRE 10-11-07 Conor O’Dwyer
Dual Champion Hurdle winner who proved he still had the stomach for a fight when holding off Afsoun in Grade Two Ascot Hurdle here in November. Future apparently lies over three miles, but has only attempted this trip once before as a novice and was beaten. BP= 9/4

4. 3-51134 Hills Of Aran Keith Goldsworthy 5-11-07 Timmy Murphy
Has won two novice hurdles and was a fair fourth on latest start in Grade Two company over an indequate trip. Relished three miles and could run better than many think. BP= 100/1

5. 3-56113 Kasbah Bliss Francois Doumen FR 5-11-07 Christophe Pieux
Fancied in some quarters for last year’s Ladbrokes World Hurdle, but the five-year-old has yet to run to his full potential in this country. He ran well when 19 lengths behind Inglis Drever at Newbury at the start of the month. But he is probably better with cut in the ground. BP= 6/1

6. 494-733 Lough Derg David Pipe 7-11-07v Tom Scudamore
Well held by Hardy Eustace and Black Jack Ketchum this season, but always seems to enjoy himself at Ascot as he was second here last year. However, likely to be out of his depth and hasn’t won for two years. BP= 25/1

7. 2522-52 Lyes Green Oliver Sherwood 6-11-07p Dominic Elsworth
Behind Sonnyanjoe when two pounds wrong in the handicap in Listed event at Haydock in November and hard to see where necessary improvement will come from but has run here well in the past. BP= 33/1

8. 7/FP517- Oscardeal Charlie Pogson 8-11-07 Adam Pogson
29-length winner on good to firm ground last season, but that was a £4,000 race and he has a hopeless task on first run since April. BP= 250/1

9. 2/2F01-F Oscar Park David Arbuthnot 8-11-07t Christian Williams
Was going well at Newbury on latest appearance before falling when still bang in contention. That form entitles him to respect and gelding has returned to run well after falling badly before. BP= 8/1

10. 415112 Sonnyanjoe Tom Hogan IRE 9-11-07tp Noel Fehily
Fantastic servant for stable, and emerged with credit when second to Milennium Royal at Haydock recently. Has only raced in handicaps for current trainer and this is a harder task. However, he is excellent value. BP= 16/1

11. 1F-68F2 Special Envoy Peter Bowen 5-11-07 Paddy Brennan
Beat Kasbah Bliss and Oscar Park recently, when finding Inglis Drever (giving 8lb) too strong. No disgrace in that form, and threw away valuable hurdle at Haydock with last fence blunder. Room for improvement, but wont find it easy on level weights. Rates level to Sonnyanjoe. BP= 6/1

SUMMARY

A more open race than it looks and it is worth opposing the principals with Sonnyanjoe looking good each-way value.


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