Saturday, December 6, 2003
THE VALUE BETTING COLUMN EVERY SATURDAY
SANDOWN, SATURDAY, DECEMBER 6, 2003
2:20pm William Hill Tingle Creek Trophy Chase Showcase Race (Class A) Grade 1 (5yo+)
GOING: GOOD, good to firm in places
BP= best price of Coral Eurobet, Blue Square, Ladbrokes, Tote, Stanleybet, Bet365, William Hill.
1) 11-U Azertyuiop Paul Nicholls 6-11-07 Ruby Walsh
The star novice of last season who won the Arkle Chase easily at the Cheltenham Festival. Got no further than the first fence on his reappearance in the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter. Ruby Walsh has chosen him above Cenkos and Le Roi Muguel.
BP = 5/2 generally
2) -161Cenkos Paul Nicholls 9-11-07 Timmy Murphy
Won this race last season in impressive fashion and looked as good as ever on his seasonal reappearance at Cheltenham. Will love this ground and has every chance.
BP = 6/1 Tote & William Hill
3) 1P-5 Eskleybrook Nigel Twiston-Davies 10-11-07 Robert Biddlecombe
Caused an upset in handicap here last season but surely has an impossible task here. Likes to dominate.
BP = 100/1 Blue Square
4) P5-1 Flagship Uberalles Philip Hobbs 9-11-07 Richard Johnson
Has won this race three times (1999, 2000 and 2001) but generally appeared on the downgrade last season before taking advantage of the fall of Moscow Flyer when landing Grade One contest at Punchestown. May need softer ground. However, he goes best when fresh and is a big price.
BP = 11/1 Tote
5) 1-12 Le Roi Miguel Paul Nicholls 5-11-07 Mick Fitzgerald
Developed into high-class novice last season when winning Grade One events at Aintree and Pucnhestown. No disgraced on his comeback at Ascot two weeks ago over a longer trip and will prefer this ground. A front runner and there may be too many of them in this race. By far his toughest race to date, however.
BP = 9/2 Coral Eurobet, Blue Square, Ladbrokes & Bet365
6) 1-U1 Moscow Flyer Jessica Harrington IRE 9-11-07 Barry Geraghty
Has developed into the leading two-mile chaser in recent seasons , winning the 2002 Arkle and the 2003 Champion Chase at Cheltenham. The one chink in his armour is his tendency to lose concentration and make a mistake and he should be taken on at this price and over this tricky course.
BP = 7/4 Stanleybet
7) 21-4 Seebald Martin Pipe 8-11-07 Tony McCoy
Very consistent performer at this level and beat Cenkos receiving 4lb last season here. Has a good chance if he improves on his opening season fourth at Exeter which he should and he is the potential surprise package of the race. Pipe and McCoy at 16/1!.
BP = 16/1 Bet365
A thrilling race looks in prospect, with the value bet being the consistent SEEBALD.
For old articles (from 1st March 2000) go to the Newslink