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Saturday, December 27, 2003


THE VALUE BETTING COLUMN EVERY SATURDAY

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 27, 2003

CHEPSTOW, WALES.


Going - Good, good to soft in places

BP = best odds offered from Coral Eurobet, Blue Square, Ladbrokes, Tote, Stanleybet. Bet365, William Hill


2.15pm £80,000 Coral Welsh National Handicap Chase, 3m 5f 110yds.


1) 2220P-4 Chives (IRE) 8-11-12 Henrietta Knight Jim Culloty 14
He was second in this race last year, also under top weight, and obviously needed his first start of the season. The weight is the main worry for this grand staying chaser. Loves soft ground.

BP = 18/1 Ladbrokes

2) 21/11-F1 Sir Rembrandt (IRE) 7-11-4 Robert Alner Andrew Thornton 21
Has won his three completed starts over fences - the fall came in the Hennessy. Racing off his highest mark here, he was an easy winner of the Rehearsal Chase at this course last time out. However, he is too short a price to consider.

BP = 5/2 Coral Eurobet, Blue Square, Ladbrokes & Bet365

3)61/0P6-3 Bounce Back (USA) 7-10-11 Martin Pipe Tom Scudamore 21 C,D
A good staying chaser at his best - does not want the ground too soft.

BP = 33/1 Blue Square, Ladbrokes, Tote, Bet365, & William Hill

4)2406-F2 Bindaree (IRE) 9-10-09 Nigel Twiston-Davies Carl Llewellyn 21
8 lb better off for an eight-length beating by Sir Rembrandt last time out. The Martell Grand Natiobal winner obviously stays well and must have a chance here. He was third in this race two years ago.

BP = 7/1 Coral Eurobet & Ladbrokes

5)F0P6-33 Take Control (IRE) 9-10-06 Martin Pipe Tony McCoy 28
Consistent sort who stays well but is he well handicapped?
BP = 12/1 Ladbrokes

6)P0-2PU4 Carbury Cross (IRE) 910 6 Jonjo O'Neill E Cooper (7) 21
Stays well but does not win that often.

BP = 50/1 Ladbrokes

7)316P02- Akarus (FR) 8-10-06 Martin Pipe Jamie Moore (3) 287
Second in the longer Midlands National at Uttoxeter in March. Has not run since but is an experienced ex-French contender who must be respected.

BP = 16/1 Tote

8)F121B1 Take The Stand (IRE) 7-10-06 Peter Bowen Seamus Durack 9
Greatly improved chaser in the last six months. Brought down at the first in the Hennessy and this is his toughest test. Has been winning on faster ground over shorter trips so there are worries.

BP = 12/1 Ladbrokes

9)134F-5F Wonder Weasel (IRE) 10-10-05 Kim Bailey J P McNamara 34
Has not recaptured his form of last season and is best watched.

BP = 33/1 Tote, Bet365 & William Hill

10)2310-24 Hedgehunter (IRE) 7-10-01 Willie Mullins IRE Ruby Walsh 28
Consistent Irish raider who ran well when fourth in the Hennessy. Revels in soft and heavy ground. Too short odds.

BP = 4/1 Coral Eurobet, Blue Square, Stanleybet & William Hill

11)1P13-14 Jurancon II (FR) 6-10-01 Martin Pipe Rodi Greene 34
Twice a winner got Rodi Greene in two rides, he stays well and must have a chance. His most recent run at Plumpton can be forgiven as it was the big horse’s first outing since winning over four miles at Uttoxeter at the end of June.

BP = 25/1 Blue Square, adbrokes, Tote, Bet365 & William Hill

12)1/11P-21 Mr Woodentop (IRE) 7-10-00 (9-13) Len Lungo Tony Dobbin 30
Very promising chaser who has been brought along slowly. Won a modest Carlisle three mile handicap chase last time out on his fourth start over the bigger obstacles but has plenty of scope. May need more experience.

BP = 12/1 Tote

13)11FP-F5 Kemal's Council (IRE) 7-10-00 (9-06)Jonjo O'Neill Marcus Foley 21
Has shown disappointing form all year and needs to get his act together again.

BP = 50/1 Blue Square

14)0/1141-1 Kings Mistral (IRE) 1-10-00 (9-05) Patrick Chamings Richard Johnson 21
Improving sort who should stay this sort of trip. Though he is out of the handicap, his chance must not be underestimated. Won four of his last five races. The only worry is that he acts very well on right-handed tracks - this is a left-handed one. Good value on the betting exchanges.

BP = 16/1 Ladbrokes, Tote, Stanleybet, Bet365 & William Hill

15)1/310-51 Jeremy Spider 10-10-00(9-04) Colin Tizzard Sam Thomas(5) 34
Consistent sort who is facing his toughest task but not completely out of it, having won last time out at Plumpton.

BP = 25/1 Coral Eurobet, Ladbrokes, Tote & William Hill.


SUMMARY
This is a trappy race with two horses at short prices who are not value. The two against the field are Jurancon II and Kings Mistral. Both are offered at better prices by the betting exchanges than those advertised by bookmakers currently. To find the best exchange prices as well as the best bookmaker odds click here for BritOdds.com

GOOD LUCK.


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