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Saturday, November 3, 2007



THE VALUE BETTING COLUMN every Saturday

Newmarket, Saturday, November 4, 2007

2.40pm £26,000 BET365 CALL 08000322365 JAMES SEYMOUR STAKES 1m2f

GOING: GOOD



for the best odds go to www.BritOdds.com
BP= the best price at the time of writing

1 (5) 13321 FAIRMILE Saeed bin Suroor 5-9-02 Ted Durcan
Won the John Smith’s Cup last season over a similar trip on good to firm ground before disappointing here in Cambridgeshire. Impressive three-length winner on latest start in competitive10-furlong conditions event at York, settling race in a matter of strides. Looks sure to have say with stable in terrific form. BP= 5/6

2 (2) 23872 MASHAAHED Barry Hills 4-9-02 Richard Hills
Has performed well without reward in Group company, and split Godolphin pair when second on latest start in Group Three contest on Rowley Mile course two weeks ago. Only two career wins, both at ten furlongs, and has looked less than straightforward on some starts. Chance if in the right mood and stable in fine form but best form on give in the ground. BP= 5/2

3 (1) 12400 PINPOINT Walter Swinburn 5-9-02 Adam Kirby
Looked a Group horse in the making last autumn, when winning the 10-furlong John Smith’s Stakes at Newbury, and finishing third to Formal Decree in the Cambridgeshire. Won Newbury Spring Cup earlier this year and ran well again next time, but last three starts have not yielded a lot. However, he broke a blood vessel at Goodwood in August and was not disgraced last time when mid-division on the Cambridgeshire. Will appreciate the fast ground. BP= 9/2

4 (6) 182 ROCK OF VEIO Peter Chapple-Hyam 3-8-12 Jimmy Fortune
Highly regarded Italian import, from trainer who knows how to place his horses. Hard to know what he achieved when brushed aside by Tobosa on English debut, and Italian form is far from inspiring. Far too much risk involved against horses with much more experience, and will have to have improved greatly on Doncaster run. BP= 40/1

5 (3) 74317 SILCA KEY Mick Channon 3-8-07 Francis Norton
Tough three-year-old filly has been kept busy throughout the year, winning three times in lesser handicap company. Ran with some credit on last start over course and distance, when seventh in Listed fillies and mare contest two weeks ago. However does not look the type to improve, and is out of her depth against the boys. BP= 33/1

6 (4) 31614 VIVA LA FLAG John Dunlop 3-8-07 Eddie Ahern
Two wins from six starts and relatively unexposed. Stepped up on previous efforts when close fourth behind Teslin in course and distance handicap on September 22. However, lacked tactical speed on that day, and this looks tougher.BP= 40/1


SUMMARY
Fairmile is worth opposing at odds-on with Pinpoint who is excellent value if he can return to something like his old form.






CODEBREAKER

NEWMARKET, SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 3, 2007

3:15pm - £20,000 bet365 Best Odds Guaranteed On Every Race Handicap, 1m



Main Trends:

15 of the 16 winners of this contest were drawn in stall 5 or higher

13 of the 16 winners carried between 7st 13lbs and 9st 4lbs to victory

13 of the 16 winners were aged between three and five

15 of the 16 winners raced between three and 12 times earlier in the campaign

11 of the last 16 winners were placed on their previous start

There have been 16 renewals of this handicap, run over the straight Rowley Mile Newmarket, and to date the only winner emerging from stalls one to four has been the 2003 hero Thihn.


Of this year’s 14 runners, this trend immediately rules out Bid For Glory, Kinsya, Damika, and Blue Rocket.


The last winner to win from stall 5 was Scales Of Justice in 1991, and so Capable Guest can also be discounted from such a low draw.


13 of the 16 winners carried between 7st 13lb and 9st 4lb to victory - the three exceptions being Greenaway Bay, who had only 7st 6lb when scoring in 2000, and Zero Tolerance, who has landed the contest in both 2004 and 2005 under 9st 7lb.


We can therefore eliminate Chicken Soup (who carries 9st 6lbs), and very Wise (who is burdened with 9st 5lbs).


When Thihn was victorious at the age of eight, he became only the third winner of this event not to be aged between three and five. The other exceptions were seven-year-old Saifan, successful in 1996, and Greenaway Bay, who was six.


Seven-year-old Zero Tolerance and six-year-old Princes Of Thebes are up against it here and disappear from the reckoning.


Master Beveled, victorious in 1994, was the only winner not to have raced between three and 12 times earlier in the campaign - he had enjoyed a whopping18 previous outings.


South Cape has already had 13 races this term and is therefore ruled out of consideration.


12 of the 16 winners of this competitive handicap had got their heads in front at least once earlier in the campaign - the four anomalies were Soller Bay in 2001, Raheen three years earlier, Consort in 1997 and last year’s winner Arm Candy.

Of those remaining, Blue Rocket and Rain Stops Play have not been good enough to enter the winner's enclosure this season, and they are discounted.


11 of the 16 successful horses since 1991 were placed on their latest start before running in this race. Danehillsundance finished 16th on his last appearance, and so he can be ruled out.


Codebreaker is now left with a straight choice between Hazzard County and Voliere. Both are drawn high, carry an ideal weight for the contest and have had a recent placed run.


Hazzard County has better form over a shorter distance and over an all-weather surface this season. The three-year-old has also not won since March.


A win and a third have come recently on the all-weather for VOLIERE who also ran well when second behind Gyroscope over 10 furlongs at Yarmouth in September. Stuart William’s filly will hopefully find that a strongly-run eight furlongs at Newmarket suits her.


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