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Saturday, November 4, 2006



THE VALUE BETTING COLUMN every Saturday

CHURCHILL DOWNS, SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 4, 2006

8.55pm (British time - local time 3.55pm US$2-million Breeders’ Cup Emirates Airline Distaff 1m 1f dirt




for the best odds go to www.BritOdds.com
BP= the best price at the time of writing

Going - dirt


1 (1) 12-1123 Round Pond (USA) 4-8-11 Michael Matz Edgar Prado
A consistent Grade Two performer who looks like he is outclassed. BP= 20/1

2 (2) 112211 Pine Island (USA) 3-8-8 Shug McGaughey Javier Castellano
Progressive sort who stays well. A three-year-old meeting older fillies and does not look any value. BP= 5/1

3 (3) 413211 Healthy Addiction (USA) 5-8-11 b John Sadler Victor Espinoza
Very consistent Californian mare. The question is can she reproduce the form here. BP= 12/1

4 (4) 163774 Sharp Lisa (USA) 4-8-11 Doug O'Neill Patrick Valenzuela
Grade Two sort who is going to find this very difficult. BP= 50/1

5 (5) 114435 Lemons Forever (USA) 3-8-8 Dallas Stewart Mark Guidry
A course and distance winner in the Grade One Kentucky Oaks but her form since does not appear good enough. BP= 33/1

6 (6) 2-11418 Spun Sugar (USA) 4-8-11 Todd Pletcher Michael Luzzi
Ran poorly last time after a lay-off. Fair form before then. BP= 10/1

7 (7) 111111 Fleet Indian (USA) 5-8-11 Todd Pletcher Jose Santos
Keeps winning but by narrow margins and there is better value in this race. BP= 5/2

8 (8) 163181 Baghdaria (USA) 3-8-8 Thomas Amoss Rafael Bejarano
Grade Three winner but has to improve a lot to figure here. BP= 33/1

9 (9) 161131 Pool Land (USA) 4-8-11 Todd Pletcher John Velazquez
Progressive filly who could figure in the finish. BP= 12/1

10 (10) 624143 Hollywood Story (USA) 5-8-11 b John Shirreffs David Flores
May have needed last race but has to prove she can cope with coming to Kentucky from California. BP= 25/1

11 (11) 113115 Bushfire (USA) 3-8-8 Eddie Kenneally Alex Solis
Consistent sort who may not be quite good enough. BP= 33/1

12 (12) 244131 Asi Siempre (USA) 4-8-11 b Patrick Biancone Julien Leparoux
Progressive sort who won the Grade One Spinster Stakes at Keeneland last time and this local filly is terrific value. Get on each-way. BP= 11/1
13 (13) 122126 Happy Ticket (USA) 5-8-11 Jr Andrew Leggio, Garrett Gomez
Course and distance winner who is really a Grade below this class on general form. BP= 14/1

14 (14) 423222 Balletto (UAE) 4-8-11 Thomas Albertrani Corey Nakatani
Consistent in top grade but has not won for a while. BP= 7/1

Summary
The value is with Asi Sempre each-way


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