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Saturday, November 27, 2004


THE VALUE BETTING COLUMN EVERY SATURDAY




NEWBURY, SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 27, 2004



GOING: GOOD TO SOFT, GOOD IN PLACES

2.40pm £120,000 Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup Handicap Chase, Grade 3, 3m 2f 110y

BP = best odds at time of writing. For the latest best odds, go to www.britodds.com

1) 52-3 First Gold Francois Doumen FR 11-11-12 Tony McCoy
High-class performer at best and still showed he retained a large part of his ability last season. However, hard to fancy with this weight on his first run since April. BP = 16/1

2) 72-1 Royal Auclair Paul Nicholls 7-10-13t Ruby Walsh
Showed he was back to his best at the end of last season with a fine second in the betfred Gold Cup and it was another good effort to win under top weight at Wincanton on reappearance from Gunther McBride. Respected, although ideally needs slightly faster conditions. BP = 7/1

3) UU1- Puntal,/b> Martin Pipe 8-10-12t Jamie Moore
Quirky performer but no doubting his ability when he's on song, as when winning the betfred Gold Cup last season. Looks best watched on seasonal reappearance. BP = 18/1

4) 1114 Ollie Magern Nigel Twiston-Davies 6-10-09 Carl Llewellyn
The youngest member of the field but a fine jumper as he showed when landing his first three starts over fences. Will be more at home over this distance than he was in the Paddy Power Gold Cup over nearly two miles five furlongs and open to more improvement. Has a chance but his inexperience may be against him. BP = 13/2

5) 13-4 Nil Desperandum Frances Crowley IRE 7-10-08 Mick Fitzgerald
Decent Irish novice chaser last season. A bit disappointing when last seen out at Punchestown in April and has yet to prove himself over the distance. Not run for a long time but is a progressive sort. BP = 11/2

6) P-P9 Artic Jack Sue Smith 8-10-06 Dominic Elsworth
Had some form in the first half of last season but nothing on his recent outings makes him a likely winner here. BP = 50/1

7) 21-1 Celestial Gold (ex6) Martin Pipe 6-10-05 Timmy Murphy
Continued Martin Pipe's great run when landing Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham a fortnight ago. Should in theory be even better over this distance (second over 4m at Cheltenham last season) and could show improvement. Leading contender, but no value.

BP = 5/2
8) 6126 Swansea Bay Peter Bowen 8-10-03 Andrew Thornton
Admirably tough performer but has generally looked in the grip of the handicapper lately and hard to see that changing here. BP = 33/1

9) 13/3 Frenchman's Creek Hughie Morrison 10-10-03 Robert Thornton
Very progressive performer two seasons ago when winning William Hill Chase at Cheltenham. Encouraging return behind Best Mate and Seebald last week. Looks on a handy mark and might go well providing he doesn't suffer from the "bounce" factor. BP = 12/1

10) 5/1- Lord Transcend Howard Johnson 7-10-00 Tony Dobbin
The unknown quantity. Very promising performer over hurdles in 2002/03 and won only start over fences last season before injury. Could be potentially be well treated but lacks experience. BP = 7/1

11) 5-12 Gunther McBride Philip Hobbs 9-10-00 Richard Johnson
Having his third run in this race - sixth in 2002 and pulled up last year. May reserve his best for Kempton but this consistent sort is worth another chance here with Richard Johnson up and off this minimum weight. Great value. BP = 16/1

12) 572/ Supreme Glory Pat Murphy 11-10-00 Leighton Aspell
Not seen out since finishing second in 2003 Grand National and likely to be warming up for that race again here. BP = 66/1

13) 11-0 Lord Of The RiverNicky Henderson 12-10-00 Marcus Foley
Lightly-raced veteran who showed he was no back number when winning competitive contest at Aintree last year. Would have a bit of a chance on that form, but a big ask for him to win this at 12 years old. BP = 33/1

14) 12P- Midland Flame Henrietta Knight 9-10-00 Paul Flynn
Won over course last season, when beating Lord Of The River. Was otherwise a bit disappointing and doesn't look quite up to this class. BP = 40/1

SUMMARY
This looks an open renewal of the Hennessy. The value is with GUNTHER MCBRIDE

GOOD LUCK

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