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Saturday, January 6, 2006
THE VALUE BETTING COLUMN every Saturday SANDOWN, SATURDAY, JANUARY 6, 2007 3.10pm £50,000 ladbrokes.com Handicap Hurdle, 2m 110yds GOING: Heavy, soft in places for the best odds go to www.BritOdds.com BP= the best price at the time of writing 1) 52-130 PREMIER DANE Nicky Richards 5-11-12 Brian Harding Showed very useful form in novice company last year, winning twice and finishing a fine second to Detroit City in the Grade One Sportsman Anniversary 4-y-o Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree on much better ground. Ran well when third on jumping return at Market Rasen in December, but was well beaten in the Ladbroke Handicap Hurdle at Ascot last time and looks to have plenty of weight here. BP= 25/1 2) 093-71 PAPINI Nicky Henderson 6-11-3 Mick Fitzgerald Recruited from the Flat in Germany and made a promising start to his hurdling career during the 2004/05 season, notching two victories at Newbury. Failed to get his head in front last term, but made all for a winning return over two miles at Haydock on November 2. Yet to race in this sort of ground. Usually makes the running. BP= 7/1 3) 10-2 ORCADIAN James Eustace 6-11-3 Mark Bradburne Group Three scorer on the Flat who has taken well to the jumping game, winning readily on his hurdling debut at Market Rasen last February and not disgracing himself next time when 13th to Noland in the Grade One Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham. Made a pleasing return when second to an unexposed rival at Kempton last month and should go well if his often wayward temperament holds up as he revels in this sort of ground. BP= 5/1 4) 331754 LUNAR CRYSTAL David Pipe 9-11-0p Rodi Greene Has been mixing hurdling with chasing, landing an extended two mile novice chase at Newton Abbot in June, his first win in over three and a half years. Finished behind Papini at Haydock in November and was well beaten over fences at Cheltenham on December 8, finding the two mile and five furlong trip too far on soft ground. Looks likely to struggle on the balance of recent form and is passed over. BP= 20/1 5) 1-0378 HEATHCOTE Gary Moore 5-10-05 Eamon Dehdashti (5) Acquitted himself well when seventh to Overstrand in the William Hill Handicap Hurdle at Sandown last month but very disappointing when only eighth of 10 at Ascot over an extended two miles and three furlongs next time. The drop back in trip should help but he has plenty on his plate at this level. BP= 20/1 6) F2-22F KINGS SIGNAL Martin Hogan 9-10-6 Leighton Aspell Looked to be in with every chance at Kempton last time out before meeting the final flight wrong and taking a tumble. Finished runner-up on both previous outings this season. Still a novice and yet to score over hurdles, but he deserves a change of luck and should run well if his jumping holds up and he acts on the ground. BP= 5/1 7) 2318-1 TOUS CHEZ Sue Smith 8-10-6 David OìMeara He has only had the nine career starts and did well to get past today’s opponents Ma Yahab and Premier Dane on his comeback at Market Rasen on December 9. He handles testing ground and could still be on the upgrade so it would be dangerous to dismiss him from calculations despite being 4lb worse off. BP= 7/1 8) /0-FP4 MR DINGLAWI Gardie Grissell 6-10-4b James Davies He has won three times over hurdles up to two and a half miles but has unimpressive form figures so far this season, failing to complete on two of his four starts and coming home a well-beaten fourth at Fontwell last time. Looks to have little chance in this competitive event on that level of form. BP= 40/1 9) 223-0F NYBORG MADRIK David Pipe 6-10-4 Timmy Murphy French recruit to the David Johnson/David Pipe stable are always of interest but this one has not shown much in two starts here, over hurdles at Newbury when well beaten, and over fences at Chepstow when departing at the first obstacle. But both those were over longer trips, three miles and two and a half miles. He did best in France at two miles on this sort of ground so he can show an improved performance. BP= 20/1 10) 11/1-2 MA YAHAB Venetia Williams 6-9-12 Liam Treadwell (3) Rattled up a hat-trick in the space of five weeks in 2005 and made a most satisfactory reappearance after a long absence when second to Tous Chez at Market Rasen last month, looking the likely winner until bungling the final flight. He has a good chance of turning the tables at the weights and a bold bid looks assured but he is untested on this sort of ground. BP= 13/2 11) 221124 PILCA Declan Carroll 7-10-1 Barry Keniry Ultra consistent this season, never finishing out of the first four in seven outings and running a blinder last time out when fourth to Acambo in the Ladbroke Handicap Hurdle on December 16. There were lenty of good horses in behind that day and he is likely to go well again. BP= 9/2 12) -39052 MISBEHAVIOUR Gary Moore 8-10-0 Jamie Moore Normally competes at a lower level, best effort this season when an eight-length second to Hereditary at Fontwell in December. Well beaten in a banded event on the level at Southwell latest though, and it is difficult to see him figuring in this company from 4lb out of the handicap. BP= 22/1 SUMMARY The ground and the race are made for ORCADIAN who is excellent value.
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